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College Football Week 12 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 12 of the 2025 season features 59 FBS games. UCLA leads all road trips at 1,970 miles. James Madison posts the week's top HFA at 3.3 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 UCLA
1,970 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
UCLA travels 1,970 miles to face Ohio State, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#2 West Virginia
1,820 miles · +2h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
West Virginia travels 1,820 miles to face Arizona State, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.
#3 Purdue
1,814 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Purdue travels 1,814 miles to face Washington, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#4 Air Force
1,701 miles · -2h body-clock shift · equal rest
Air Force travels 1,701 miles to face UConn, arriving with a -2h body-clock shift.
#5 Louisiana Tech
1,622 miles · +2h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
Louisiana Tech travels 1,622 miles to face Washington State, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts
2°F, 7 mph wind, Clear
Northern Illinois @ Massachusetts: 2°F, 7 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Kent State @ Akron
4°F, 6 mph wind, Freezing fog
Kent State @ Akron: 4°F, 6 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 UCLA @ Ohio State
11°F, 5 mph wind, Clear
UCLA @ Ohio State: 11°F, 5 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 James Madison
HFA 3.3 pts · Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 capacity
James Madison carries a 3.3-point HFA edge at Bridgeforth Stadium (24,877 capacity) against App State.
#2 Louisville
HFA 3.2 pts · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 60,800 capacity
Louisville carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (60,800 capacity) against Clemson.
#3 UL Monroe
HFA 3.1 pts · Malone Stadium · 27,617 capacity
UL Monroe carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Malone Stadium (27,617 capacity) against South Alabama.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 New Mexico State @ Tennessee
Model gap: 35.2 pts · Line: Tennessee -39.5 · Home power: 19.9 · Away: -15.3
The model shows Tennessee by 35.2 model points; market line is Tennessee -39.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 UCLA @ Ohio State
Model gap: 27.5 pts · Line: Ohio State -31.5 · Home power: 32.4 · Away: 4.9
The model shows Ohio State by 27.5 model points; market line is Ohio State -31.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Wisconsin @ Indiana
Model gap: 26.3 pts · Line: Indiana -30.5 · Home power: 30.9 · Away: 4.6
The model shows Indiana by 26.3 model points; market line is Indiana -30.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Louisiana Tech @ Washington State
Model: 49% home · Market: 76% home · Gap: 27pp · Line: Washington State -8.5
Model gives Washington State a 49% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 76%. A 27-point gap — model favours Louisiana Tech relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 Virginia @ Duke
Model: 39% home · Market: 65% home · Gap: 26pp · Line: Duke -6.5
Model gives Duke a 39% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 65%. A 26-point gap — model favours Virginia relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Ohio @ Western Michigan
Model: 30% home · Market: 53% home · Gap: 23pp · Line: Western Michigan -1.5
Model gives Western Michigan a 30% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 53%. A 23-point gap — model favours Ohio relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 12 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
Kent State 42 @ 35 Akron Akron -6.5 49.5 Upset, Kent State Covered, Over
Ohio 13 @ 17 Western Michigan Western Michigan -1.5 49.5 Chalk, Western Michigan Covered, Under
Northern Illinois 45 @ 3 Massachusetts Northern Illinois -10.5 42.5 Chalk, Northern Illinois Covered, Over
Toledo 24 @ 3 Miami (OH) N/A N/A –
Buffalo 19 @ 38 Central Michigan Central Michigan -2.5 43.5 Chalk, Central Michigan Covered, Over
Troy 0 vs 33 Old Dominion Old Dominion -11.5 54.5 Chalk, Old Dominion Covered, Under
Clemson 20 @ 19 Louisville Louisville -3.5 51.5 Upset, Clemson Covered, Under
Minnesota 13 @ 42 Oregon Oregon -24.5 49.5 Chalk, Oregon Covered, Over
Notre Dame 37 @ 15 Pittsburgh Notre Dame -10.5 55.5 Chalk, Notre Dame Covered, Under
Air Force 16 @ 26 UConn UConn -7.5 63.5 Chalk, UConn Covered, Under
South Florida 38 @ 41 Navy Navy -10.5 65.5 Chalk, South Florida Covered, Over
Eastern Michigan 24 vs 9 Ball State Eastern Michigan -2.5 50.5 Chalk, Eastern Michigan Covered, Under
Michigan 24 vs 22 Northwestern Michigan -11.5 44.5 Chalk, Northwestern Covered, Over
Arizona 30 @ 24 Cincinnati Cincinnati -9.5 55.5 Upset, Arizona Covered, Under
Kansas State 14 @ 6 Oklahoma State Kansas State -19.5 54.5 Chalk, Oklahoma State Covered, Under
South Carolina 30 @ 31 Texas A&M Texas A&M -18.5 47.5 Chalk, South Carolina Covered, Over
UTSA 28 @ 7 Charlotte UTSA -17.5 60.5 Chalk, UTSA Covered, Under
Wisconsin 7 @ 31 Indiana Indiana -30.5 44.5 Chalk, Wisconsin Covered, Under
Arkansas 22 @ 23 LSU LSU -4.5 56.5 Chalk, Arkansas Covered, Under
West Virginia 23 @ 25 Arizona State Arizona State -11.5 47.5 Chalk, West Virginia Covered, Over
Oregon State 14 @ 31 Tulsa Oregon State -1.5 48.5 Upset, Tulsa Covered, Under
Tennessee Tech 10 @ 42 Kentucky N/A N/A –
Marshall 30 @ 18 Georgia State Marshall -7.5 53.5 Chalk, Marshall Covered, Under
North Texas 53 @ 24 UAB North Texas -18.5 59.5 Chalk, North Texas Covered, Over
UTEP 24 @ 38 Missouri State Missouri State -4.5 49.5 Chalk, Missouri State Covered, Over
Colorado State 17 vs 20 New Mexico New Mexico -14.5 53.5 Chalk, Colorado State Covered, Under
Middle Tennessee 26 @ 42 Western Kentucky Western Kentucky -13.5 50.5 Chalk, Western Kentucky Covered, Over
San José State 10 @ 55 Nevada San José State -9.5 52.5 Upset, Nevada Covered, Over
South Alabama 26 @ 14 UL Monroe South Alabama -3.5 51.5 Chalk, South Alabama Covered, Under
NC State 7 @ 41 Miami Miami -14.5 55.5 Chalk, Miami Covered, Under
Iowa 21 @ 26 USC USC -6.5 49.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Under
Texas State 41 @ 14 Southern Miss Texas State -8.5 54.5 Chalk, Texas State Covered, Over
Oklahoma 23 @ 21 Alabama Alabama -6.5 46.5 Upset, Oklahoma Covered, Under
App State 10 @ 58 James Madison James Madison -20.5 53.5 Chalk, James Madison Covered, Over
Georgia Tech 36 @ 34 Boston College Georgia Tech -16.5 55.5 Chalk, Boston College Covered, Over
Penn State 28 @ 10 Michigan State Penn State -6.5 49.5 Chalk, Penn State Covered, Under
UCF 9 @ 48 Texas Tech Texas Tech -23.5 47.5 Chalk, Texas Tech Covered, Over
Maryland 6 @ 24 Illinois Illinois -14.5 53.5 Chalk, Illinois Covered, Under
Virginia 34 @ 17 Duke Duke -6.5 57.5 Upset, Virginia Covered, Under
Florida Atlantic 24 vs 35 Tulane Tulane -17.5 53.5 Chalk, Florida Atlantic Covered, Over
Memphis 27 @ 31 East Carolina Memphis -2.5 50.5 Upset, East Carolina Covered, Over
New Mexico State 9 @ 42 Tennessee Tennessee -39.5 61.5 Chalk, New Mexico State Covered, Under
North Carolina 12 @ 28 Wake Forest Wake Forest -6.5 59.5 Chalk, Wake Forest Covered, Under
Liberty 27 @ 34 Florida International Liberty -2.5 54.5 Upset, Florida International Covered, Over
Coastal Carolina 40 @ 45 Georgia Southern Georgia Southern -2.5 59.5 Chalk, Georgia Southern Covered, Over
Utah 55 @ 28 Baylor Utah -9.5 61.5 Chalk, Utah Covered, Over
Delaware 23 vs 26 Sam Houston Delaware -3.5 50.5 Upset, Sam Houston Covered, Under
Purdue 13 vs 49 Washington Washington -16.5 54.5 Chalk, Washington Covered, Over
Utah State 26 @ 29 UNLV UNLV -5.5 70.5 Chalk, Utah State Covered, Under
Florida 24 @ 34 Ole Miss Ole Miss -16.5 53.5 Chalk, Florida Covered, Over
UCLA 10 @ 48 Ohio State Ohio State -31.5 48.5 Chalk, Ohio State Covered, Over
Texas 10 @ 35 Georgia Georgia -6.5 49.5 Chalk, Georgia Covered, Under
Virginia Tech 14 @ 34 Florida State Florida State -13.5 54.5 Chalk, Florida State Covered, Under
Mississippi State 27 @ 49 Missouri Missouri -4.5 51.5 Chalk, Missouri Covered, Over
Kennesaw State 26 @ 35 Jacksonville State Kennesaw State -2.5 52.5 Upset, Jacksonville State Covered, Over
Louisiana Tech 3 @ 28 Washington State Washington State -8.5 47.5 Chalk, Washington State Covered, Under
TCU 13 @ 44 BYU BYU -5.5 52.5 Chalk, BYU Covered, Over
Boise State 7 vs 17 San Diego State San Diego State -2.5 41.5 Chalk, San Diego State Covered, Under
Wyoming 3 @ 24 Fresno State Fresno State -3.5 38.5 Chalk, Fresno State Covered, Under

How We Ranked Week 12's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 12 2025?

Week 12 of the 2025 FBS season features 59 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 12 of the 2025 season features 59 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.