College Football Week 3 — 2025

By Liam Browne · Last updated 2026-06-14

Week 3 of the 2025 season features 70 FBS games. Boston College leads all road trips at 2,691 miles. Tennessee posts the week's top HFA at 3.1 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Boston College

2,691 miles · +3h body-clock shift · away +1d rest

Boston College travels 2,691 miles to face Stanford, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

#2 Portland State

2,585 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest

Portland State travels 2,585 miles to face Hawai'i, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

#3 Middle Tennessee

1,840 miles · +2h body-clock shift · equal rest

Middle Tennessee travels 1,840 miles to face Nevada, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.

#4 Oregon

1,783 miles · -2h body-clock shift · home +1d rest

Oregon travels 1,783 miles to face Northwestern, arriving with a -2h body-clock shift.

#5 USC

1,775 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest

USC travels 1,775 miles to face Purdue, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech

13°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog

Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech: 13°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

#2 Massachusetts @ Iowa

15°F, 7 mph wind, Clear

Massachusetts @ Iowa: 15°F, 7 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

#3 Texas A&M @ Notre Dame

16°F, 4 mph wind, Light snow

Texas A&M @ Notre Dame: 16°F, 4 mph wind, Light snow — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 Tennessee

HFA 3.1 pts · Neyland Stadium · 101,915 capacity

Tennessee carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Neyland Stadium (101,915 capacity) against Georgia.

#2 Ohio State

HFA 3.0 pts · Ohio Stadium · 102,780 capacity

Ohio State carries a 3.0-point HFA edge at Ohio Stadium (102,780 capacity) against Ohio.

#3 Georgia Southern

HFA 3.0 pts · Allen E. Paulson Stadium · 25,000 capacity

Georgia Southern carries a 3.0-point HFA edge at Allen E. Paulson Stadium (25,000 capacity) against Jacksonville State.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Indiana State @ Indiana

Model gap: 58.6 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 29.0 · Away: -29.6

The model shows Indiana by 58.6 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

#2 Northwestern State @ Cincinnati

Model gap: 48.2 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 10.6 · Away: -37.6

The model shows Cincinnati by 48.2 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

#3 Alcorn State @ Mississippi State

Model gap: 47.2 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 9.2 · Away: -38.0

The model shows Mississippi State by 47.2 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Houston Christian @ Nebraska

Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: line unavailable

Model gives Nebraska a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Nebraska relative to the market. Directional signal only.

#2 Samford @ Baylor

Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: line unavailable

Model gives Baylor a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Baylor relative to the market. Directional signal only.

#3 Merrimack @ Kennesaw State

Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: line unavailable

Model gives Kennesaw State a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Kennesaw State relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 3 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome

NC State 34 @ 24 Wake Forest NC State -7.5 53.5 Chalk, NC State Covered, Over

Indiana State 0 @ 73 Indiana N/A N/A –

Colgate 24 @ 66 Syracuse N/A N/A –

Colorado 20 @ 36 Houston Houston -4.5 44.5 Chalk, Houston Covered, Over

Kansas State 17 @ 23 Arizona Arizona -2.5 54.5 Chalk, Arizona Covered, Under

New Mexico 35 @ 10 UCLA UCLA -15.5 53.5 Upset, New Mexico Covered, Under

Towson 17 @ 44 Maryland N/A N/A –

Oregon 34 @ 14 Northwestern Oregon -27.5 51.5 Chalk, Northwestern Covered, Under

Houston Christian 7 @ 59 Nebraska N/A N/A –

Memphis 28 @ 7 Troy Memphis -5.5 50.5 Chalk, Memphis Covered, Under

Oklahoma 42 @ 3 Temple Oklahoma -24.5 51.5 Chalk, Oklahoma Covered, Under

Buffalo 31 @ 28 Kent State Buffalo -21.5 48.5 Chalk, Kent State Covered, Over

Samford 7 @ 42 Baylor N/A N/A –

William & Mary 16 @ 55 Virginia N/A N/A –

Clemson 21 @ 24 Georgia Tech Clemson -4.5 58.5 Upset, Georgia Tech Covered, Under

Wisconsin 14 @ 38 Alabama Alabama -20.5 47.5 Chalk, Alabama Covered, Over

Central Michigan 3 @ 63 Michigan Michigan -27.5 42.5 Chalk, Michigan Covered, Over

South Alabama 15 @ 31 Auburn N/A N/A –

Louisiana 10 @ 52 Missouri Missouri -25.5 49.5 Chalk, Missouri Covered, Over

New Hampshire 29 vs 34 Ball State N/A N/A –

UConn 41 @ 44 Delaware UConn -9.5 51.5 Upset, Delaware Covered, Over

Villanova 6 @ 52 Penn State N/A N/A –

Morgan State 0 @ 60 Toledo N/A N/A –

Northwestern State 0 @ 70 Cincinnati N/A N/A –

Norfolk State 10 @ 60 Rutgers N/A N/A –

Oregon State 14 @ 45 Texas Tech Texas Tech -23.5 61.5 Chalk, Texas Tech Covered, Under

SMU 28 @ 10 Missouri State SMU -27.5 61.5 Chalk, Missouri State Covered, Under

Youngstown State 24 @ 41 Michigan State N/A N/A –

Georgia 44 @ 41 Tennessee Georgia -7 50.5 Chalk, Tennessee Covered, Over

USC 33 @ 17 Purdue USC -21.5 58.5 Chalk, Purdue Covered, Under

Richmond 6 @ 41 North Carolina N/A N/A –

Pittsburgh 24 vs 31 West Virginia Pittsburgh -2 57.5 Upset, West Virginia Covered, Under

Washington State 10 @ 59 North Texas North Texas -5.5 58.5 Chalk, North Texas Covered, Over

Incarnate Word 20 @ 48 UTSA N/A N/A –

Iowa State 24 @ 16 Arkansas State Iowa State -20.5 55.5 Chalk, Arkansas State Covered, Under

UTEP 10 @ 27 Texas Texas -41.5 N/A Chalk, UTEP Covered

South Florida 12 @ 49 Miami Miami -16.5 55.5 Chalk, Miami Covered, Over

Middle Tennessee 14 @ 13 Nevada Nevada -8.5 47.5 Upset, Middle Tennessee Covered, Under

Liberty 13 @ 23 Bowling Green Liberty -6.5 51.5 Upset, Bowling Green Covered, Under

Alcorn State 0 @ 63 Mississippi State N/A N/A –

Merrimack 13 vs 27 Kennesaw State N/A N/A –

Monmouth 35 @ 42 Charlotte N/A N/A –

Eastern Kentucky 7 @ 38 Marshall N/A N/A –

Florida Atlantic 28 @ 38 Florida International Florida International -1.5 57.5 Chalk, Florida International Covered, Over

Arkansas 35 @ 41 Ole Miss Ole Miss -9.5 63.5 Chalk, Arkansas Covered, Over

Prairie View A&M 17 @ 38 Rice N/A N/A –

Murray State 21 @ 37 Georgia State N/A N/A –

Old Dominion 45 @ 26 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech -7.5 51.5 Upset, Old Dominion Covered, Over

App State 22 @ 38 Southern Miss Southern Miss -1.5 54.5 Chalk, Southern Miss Covered, Over

Western Michigan 0 @ 38 Illinois Illinois -27.5 52.5 Chalk, Illinois Covered, Under

Ohio 9 @ 37 Ohio State Ohio State -33.5 53.5 Chalk, Ohio Covered, Under

Jacksonville State 34 @ 41 Georgia Southern Georgia Southern -2.5 57.5 Chalk, Georgia Southern Covered, Over

Massachusetts 7 @ 47 Iowa Iowa -33.5 44.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Over

Eastern Michigan 23 @ 48 Kentucky Kentucky -35.5 45.5 Chalk, Eastern Michigan Covered, Over

Texas A&M 41 @ 40 Notre Dame Notre Dame -6.5 49.5 Upset, Texas A&M Covered, Over

East Carolina 38 @ 0 Coastal Carolina East Carolina -6.5 55.5 Chalk, East Carolina Covered, Under

Florida 10 @ 20 LSU LSU -6.5 50.5 Chalk, LSU Covered, Under

New Mexico State 14 @ 49 Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech -9.5 42.5 Chalk, Louisiana Tech Covered, Over

Vanderbilt 31 vs 7 South Carolina South Carolina -5.5 47.5 Upset, Vanderbilt Covered, Under

Navy 42 @ 23 Tulsa Navy -13.5 53.5 Chalk, Navy Covered, Over

Duke 27 vs 34 Tulane Tulane -3.5 53.5 Chalk, Tulane Covered, Over

Utah 31 vs 6 Wyoming Utah -22.5 48.5 Chalk, Utah Covered, Under

Abilene Christian 21 @ 42 TCU N/A N/A –

Akron 28 @ 31 UAB UAB -11.5 53.5 Chalk, Akron Covered, Over

Air Force 30 @ 49 Utah State Air Force -3.5 51.5 Upset, Utah State Covered, Over

Southern 7 @ 56 Fresno State N/A N/A –

Minnesota 14 @ 27 California Minnesota -2.5 44.5 Upset, California Covered, Under

Texas State 15 @ 34 Arizona State Arizona State -14.5 59.5 Chalk, Arizona State Covered, Under

Boston College 20 @ 30 Stanford Boston College -10.5 45.5 Upset, Stanford Covered, Over

Portland State 3 vs 23 Hawai'i N/A N/A –

How We Ranked Week 3's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

WeatherAPI.com

Home Field Advantage

Blue Chip HFA ratings

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 3 2025?

Week 3 of the 2025 FBS season features 70 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 3 of the 2025 season features 70 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.