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College Football Week 10 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 10 of the 2025 season features 52 FBS games. Hawai'i leads all road trips at 2,414 miles. SMU posts the week's top HFA at 3.2 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Hawai'i
2,414 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Hawai'i travels 2,414 miles to face San José State, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#2 Virginia
2,366 miles · +3h body-clock shift · home +1d rest
Virginia travels 2,366 miles to face California, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#3 Pittsburgh
2,258 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Pittsburgh travels 2,258 miles to face Stanford, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#4 Army
1,634 miles · +2h body-clock shift · equal rest
Army travels 1,634 miles to face Air Force, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.
#5 Cincinnati
1,450 miles · +2h body-clock shift · equal rest
Cincinnati travels 1,450 miles to face Utah, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Michigan State @ Minnesota
12°F, 4 mph wind, Mist
Michigan State @ Minnesota: 12°F, 4 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Purdue @ Michigan
17°F, 12 mph wind, Light freezing rain
Purdue @ Michigan: 17°F, 12 mph wind, Light freezing rain — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 Central Michigan @ Western Michigan
19°F, 9 mph wind, Mist
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan: 19°F, 9 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 SMU
HFA 3.2 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity
SMU carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against Miami.
#2 Oregon State
HFA 3.2 pts · Reser Stadium · 35,548 capacity
Oregon State carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Reser Stadium (35,548 capacity) against Washington State.
#3 Kansas State
HFA 3.1 pts · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 50,000 capacity
Kansas State carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Bill Snyder Family Stadium (50,000 capacity) against Texas Tech.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Notre Dame @ Boston College
Model gap: 31.5 pts · Line: Notre Dame -28.5 · Home power: -4.4 · Away: 27.1
The model shows Notre Dame by 31.5 model points; market line is Notre Dame -28.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 Indiana @ Maryland
Model gap: 25.3 pts · Line: Indiana -21.5 · Home power: 4.8 · Away: 30.1
The model shows Indiana by 25.3 model points; market line is Indiana -21.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Oklahoma State @ Kansas
Model gap: 23.9 pts · Line: Kansas -24.5 · Home power: 11.3 · Away: -12.6
The model shows Kansas by 23.9 model points; market line is Kansas -24.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 East Carolina @ Temple
Model: 10% home · Market: 35% home · Gap: 25pp · Line: East Carolina -4.5
Model gives Temple a 10% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 35%. A 25-point gap — model favours East Carolina relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 Mississippi State @ Arkansas
Model: 40% home · Market: 64% home · Gap: 24pp · Line: Arkansas -4.5
Model gives Arkansas a 40% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 64%. A 24-point gap — model favours Mississippi State relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Virginia @ California
Model: 10% home · Market: 33% home · Gap: 23pp · Line: Virginia -4.5
Model gives California a 10% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 33%. A 23-point gap — model favours Virginia relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 10 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
UTEP 20 vs 33 Kennesaw State Kennesaw State -10.5 50.5 Chalk, Kennesaw State Covered, Over
James Madison 52 @ 20 Texas State James Madison -6.5 55.5 Chalk, James Madison Covered, Over
Jacksonville State 24 @ 21 Middle Tennessee Jacksonville State -6.5 54.5 Chalk, Middle Tennessee Covered, Under
Florida International 21 @ 28 Missouri State Missouri State -3.5 50.5 Chalk, Missouri State Covered, Under
Marshall 27 @ 44 Coastal Carolina Marshall -4.5 53.5 Upset, Coastal Carolina Covered, Over
Tulane 26 @ 48 UTSA Tulane -4.5 55.5 Upset, UTSA Covered, Over
Memphis 38 @ 14 Rice Memphis -13.5 49.5 Chalk, Memphis Covered, Over
North Carolina 27 @ 10 Syracuse Syracuse -1.5 46.5 Upset, North Carolina Covered, Under
Sam Houston 14 @ 55 Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech -16.5 48.5 Chalk, Louisiana Tech Covered, Over
Vanderbilt 31 @ 34 Texas Texas -1.5 45.5 Chalk, Texas Covered, Over
West Virginia 45 @ 35 Houston Houston -13.5 49.5 Upset, West Virginia Covered, Over
Duke 46 @ 45 Clemson Clemson -3.5 55.5 Upset, Duke Covered, Over
Penn State 14 @ 38 Ohio State Ohio State -20.5 43.5 Chalk, Ohio State Covered, Over
Miami 20 @ 26 SMU Miami -12.5 51.5 Upset, SMU Covered, Under
UCF 3 @ 30 Baylor Baylor -4.5 60.5 Chalk, Baylor Covered, Under
Navy 17 @ 31 North Texas North Texas -6.5 65.5 Chalk, North Texas Covered, Under
Rutgers 13 @ 35 Illinois Illinois -12.5 62.5 Chalk, Illinois Covered, Under
UAB 19 @ 38 UConn UConn -11.5 63.5 Chalk, UConn Covered, Under
Army 20 @ 17 Air Force Air Force -1.5 49.5 Upset, Army Covered, Under
Buffalo 28 @ 3 Bowling Green Bowling Green -1.5 43.5 Upset, Buffalo Covered, Under
Arizona State 24 @ 19 Iowa State Iowa State -6.5 50.5 Upset, Arizona State Covered, Under
East Carolina 45 @ 14 Temple East Carolina -4.5 58.5 Chalk, East Carolina Covered, Over
New Mexico 40 @ 35 UNLV UNLV -4.5 61.5 Upset, New Mexico Covered, Over
Louisville 28 @ 16 Virginia Tech Louisville -10.5 53.5 Chalk, Louisville Covered, Under
Fresno State 30 @ 7 Boise State Boise State -17.5 50.5 Upset, Fresno State Covered, Under
Michigan State 20 @ 23 Minnesota Minnesota -3.5 44.5 Chalk, Michigan State Covered, Under
Texas Tech 43 @ 20 Kansas State Texas Tech -7.5 58.5 Chalk, Texas Tech Covered, Over
Notre Dame 25 @ 10 Boston College Notre Dame -28.5 56.5 Chalk, Boston College Covered, Under
Indiana 55 @ 10 Maryland Indiana -21.5 50.5 Chalk, Indiana Covered, Over
Delaware 30 @ 59 Liberty Liberty -3.5 51.5 Chalk, Liberty Covered, Over
Old Dominion 31 @ 6 UL Monroe Old Dominion -16.5 53.5 Chalk, Old Dominion Covered, Under
Georgia 24 vs 20 Florida Georgia -7.5 50.5 Chalk, Florida Covered, Under
Louisiana 31 @ 22 South Alabama South Alabama -3.5 54.5 Upset, Louisiana Covered, Under
Pittsburgh 35 @ 20 Stanford Pittsburgh -14.5 51.5 Chalk, Pittsburgh Covered, Over
New Mexico State 16 @ 35 Western Kentucky Western Kentucky -9.5 53.5 Chalk, Western Kentucky Covered, Under
Virginia 31 @ 21 California Virginia -4.5 53.5 Chalk, Virginia Covered, Under
Oklahoma State 21 @ 38 Kansas Kansas -24.5 56.5 Chalk, Oklahoma State Covered, Over
Mississippi State 38 @ 35 Arkansas Arkansas -4.5 67.5 Upset, Mississippi State Covered, Over
Central Michigan 21 @ 24 Western Michigan Western Michigan -4.5 40.5 Chalk, Central Michigan Covered, Over
Purdue 16 @ 21 Michigan Michigan -20.5 49.5 Chalk, Purdue Covered, Under
South Carolina 14 @ 30 Ole Miss Ole Miss -12.5 54.5 Chalk, Ole Miss Covered, Under
Arizona 52 @ 17 Colorado Arizona -4.5 53.5 Chalk, Arizona Covered, Over
Wyoming 7 vs 24 San Diego State San Diego State -10.5 42.5 Chalk, San Diego State Covered, Under
Washington State 7 @ 10 Oregon State Washington State -3.5 47.5 Upset, Oregon State Covered, Under
Georgia Tech 36 @ 48 NC State Georgia Tech -5.5 57.5 Upset, NC State Covered, Over
Kentucky 10 @ 3 Auburn Auburn -10.5 45.5 Upset, Kentucky Covered, Under
USC 21 @ 17 Nebraska Nebraska -6.5 59.5 Upset, USC Covered, Under
Oklahoma 33 @ 27 Tennessee Tennessee -3.5 56.5 Upset, Oklahoma Covered, Over
Wake Forest 7 @ 42 Florida State Florida State -8.5 51.5 Chalk, Florida State Covered, Under
Arkansas State 23 @ 10 Troy Troy -7.5 52.5 Upset, Arkansas State Covered, Under
Cincinnati 14 @ 45 Utah Utah -9.5 55.5 Chalk, Utah Covered, Over
Hawai'i 38 @ 45 San José State N/A N/A –

How We Ranked Week 10's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 10 2025?

Week 10 of the 2025 FBS season features 52 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 10 of the 2025 season features 52 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.