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College Football Week 7 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 7 of the 2025 season features 56 FBS games. Utah State leads all road trips at 3,013 miles. James Madison posts the week's top HFA at 3.3 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Utah State
3,013 miles · +4h body-clock shift · equal rest
Utah State travels 3,013 miles to face Hawai'i, arriving with a +4h body-clock shift.
#2 Rutgers
2,392 miles · +3h body-clock shift · away +7d rest
Rutgers travels 2,392 miles to face Washington, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#3 Wake Forest
2,316 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Wake Forest travels 2,316 miles to face Oregon State, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#4 Michigan
1,951 miles · +3h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
Michigan travels 1,951 miles to face USC, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#5 UCLA
1,906 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
UCLA travels 1,906 miles to face Michigan State, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Iowa @ Wisconsin
8°F, 6 mph wind, Mist
Iowa @ Wisconsin: 8°F, 6 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Purdue @ Minnesota
8°F, 3 mph wind, Mist
Purdue @ Minnesota: 8°F, 3 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 Northwestern @ Penn State
16°F, 5 mph wind, Cloudy
Northwestern @ Penn State: 16°F, 5 mph wind, Cloudy — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 James Madison
HFA 3.3 pts · Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 capacity
James Madison carries a 3.3-point HFA edge at Bridgeforth Stadium (24,877 capacity) against Louisiana.
#2 SMU
HFA 3.2 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity
SMU carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against Stanford.
#3 Oregon State
HFA 3.2 pts · Reser Stadium · 35,548 capacity
Oregon State carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Reser Stadium (35,548 capacity) against Wake Forest.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Houston @ Oklahoma State
Model gap: 23.7 pts · Line: Houston -13.5 · Home power: -15.6 · Away: 8.1
The model shows Houston by 23.7 model points; market line is Houston -13.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 Washington State @ Ole Miss
Model gap: 23.1 pts · Line: Ole Miss -32.5 · Home power: 21.0 · Away: -2.1
The model shows Ole Miss by 23.1 model points; market line is Ole Miss -32.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 NC State @ Notre Dame
Model gap: 20.5 pts · Line: Notre Dame -22.5 · Home power: 26.5 · Away: 6.0
The model shows Notre Dame by 20.5 model points; market line is Notre Dame -22.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Rice @ UTSA
Model: 90% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 40pp · Line: UTSA -12.5
Model gives UTSA a 90% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 40-point gap — model favours UTSA relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 Indiana @ Oregon
Model: 37% home · Market: 73% home · Gap: 36pp · Line: Oregon -7.5
Model gives Oregon a 37% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 73%. A 36-point gap — model favours Indiana relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Iowa @ Wisconsin
Model: 2% home · Market: 37% home · Gap: 35pp · Line: Iowa -3.5
Model gives Wisconsin a 2% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 37%. A 35-point gap — model favours Iowa relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 7 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
Missouri State 22 @ 20 Middle Tennessee Missouri State -2.5 51.5 Chalk, Middle Tennessee Covered, Under
Liberty 19 @ 8 UTEP Liberty -1.5 47.5 Chalk, Liberty Covered, Under
Louisiana Tech 7 vs 35 Kennesaw State Louisiana Tech -7.5 45.5 Upset, Kennesaw State Covered, Under
East Carolina 19 vs 26 Tulane Tulane -6.5 54.5 Chalk, Tulane Covered, Under
Jacksonville State 29 vs 27 Sam Houston Jacksonville State -7.5 55.5 Chalk, Sam Houston Covered, Over
Southern Miss 38 @ 35 Georgia Southern Southern Miss -2.5 60.5 Chalk, Southern Miss Covered, Over
South Florida 63 @ 36 North Texas North Texas -1.5 67.5 Upset, South Florida Covered, Over
Fresno State 21 vs 49 Colorado State Fresno State -6.5 46.5 Upset, Colorado State Covered, Over
Rutgers 19 vs 38 Washington Washington -10.5 59.5 Chalk, Washington Covered, Under
Miami (OH) 20 @ 7 Akron Miami (OH) -9.5 46.5 Chalk, Miami (OH) Covered, Under
Alabama 27 @ 24 Missouri Alabama -3.5 53.5 Chalk, Missouri Covered, Under
Louisiana 14 @ 24 James Madison James Madison -17.5 46.5 Chalk, Louisiana Covered, Under
Toledo 23 @ 28 Bowling Green Toledo -9.5 49.5 Upset, Bowling Green Covered, Over
Stanford 10 @ 34 SMU SMU -17.5 55.5 Chalk, SMU Covered, Under
UCF 11 @ 20 Cincinnati Cincinnati -10.5 55.5 Chalk, UCF Covered, Under
Houston 39 @ 17 Oklahoma State Houston -13.5 48.5 Chalk, Houston Covered, Over
Pittsburgh 34 @ 31 Florida State Florida State -9.5 58.5 Upset, Pittsburgh Covered, Over
Charlotte 7 @ 24 Army Army -16.5 47.5 Chalk, Army Covered, Under
UCLA 38 @ 13 Michigan State Michigan State -7.5 55.5 Upset, UCLA Covered, Under
Ohio State 34 @ 16 Illinois Ohio State -14.5 50.5 Chalk, Ohio State Covered, Under
Washington State 21 @ 24 Ole Miss Ole Miss -32.5 59.5 Chalk, Washington State Covered, Under
Northern Illinois 10 @ 16 Eastern Michigan Northern Illinois -1.5 48.5 Upset, Eastern Michigan Covered, Under
Massachusetts 6 @ 42 Kent State Kent State -3.5 49.5 Chalk, Kent State Covered, Under
Ball State 0 @ 42 Western Michigan Western Michigan -9.5 43.5 Chalk, Western Michigan Covered, Under
Northwestern 22 @ 21 Penn State Penn State -21.5 48.5 Upset, Northwestern Covered, Under
Oklahoma 6 vs 23 Texas Texas -2.5 42.5 Chalk, Texas Covered, Under
Virginia Tech 20 @ 35 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech -14.5 55.5 Chalk, Georgia Tech Covered, Under
Iowa State 17 @ 24 Colorado Iowa State -4.5 53.5 Upset, Colorado Covered, Under
App State 41 @ 20 Georgia State App State -2.5 56.5 Chalk, App State Covered, Over
Old Dominion 24 @ 48 Marshall Old Dominion -14.5 55.5 Upset, Marshall Covered, Over
Air Force 48 @ 51 UNLV UNLV -6.5 68.5 Chalk, Air Force Covered, Over
TCU 28 @ 41 Kansas State Kansas State -1.5 57.5 Chalk, Kansas State Covered, Over
Wake Forest 39 @ 14 Oregon State Wake Forest -2.5 52.5 Chalk, Wake Forest Covered, Over
Nebraska 34 @ 31 Maryland Nebraska -5.5 47.5 Chalk, Maryland Covered, Over
NC State 7 @ 36 Notre Dame Notre Dame -22.5 62.5 Chalk, Notre Dame Covered, Under
Indiana 30 @ 20 Oregon Oregon -7.5 55.5 Upset, Indiana Covered, Under
Navy 32 @ 31 Temple Navy -7.5 53.5 Chalk, Temple Covered, Over
Arkansas 31 @ 34 Tennessee Tennessee -12.5 69.5 Chalk, Arkansas Covered, Under
UAB 33 @ 53 Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic -4.5 70.5 Chalk, Florida Atlantic Covered, Over
Iowa 37 @ 0 Wisconsin Iowa -3.5 37.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Under
Florida 17 @ 34 Texas A&M Texas A&M -7.5 47.5 Chalk, Texas A&M Covered, Over
UL Monroe 8 @ 23 Coastal Carolina UL Monroe -2.5 43.5 Upset, Coastal Carolina Covered, Under
San José State 28 vs 35 Wyoming San José State -2.5 49.5 Upset, Wyoming Covered, Over
Purdue 20 @ 27 Minnesota Minnesota -9.5 52.5 Chalk, Purdue Covered, Under
Kansas 17 @ 42 Texas Tech Texas Tech -14.5 60.5 Chalk, Texas Tech Covered, Under
Michigan 13 @ 31 USC USC -2.5 57.5 Chalk, USC Covered, Under
Georgia 20 @ 10 Auburn Georgia -3.5 46.5 Chalk, Georgia Covered, Under
Rice 13 @ 61 UTSA UTSA -12.5 49.5 Chalk, UTSA Covered, Over
Clemson 41 @ 10 Boston College Clemson -14.5 55.5 Chalk, Clemson Covered, Under
South Carolina 10 @ 20 LSU LSU -9.5 44.5 Chalk, LSU Covered, Under
BYU 33 @ 27 Arizona BYU -1.5 47.5 Chalk, BYU Covered, Over
Troy 48 @ 41 Texas State Texas State -10.5 54.5 Upset, Troy Covered, Over
New Mexico 25 @ 41 Boise State Boise State -16.5 61.5 Chalk, New Mexico Covered, Over
Arizona State 10 @ 42 Utah Utah -5.5 48.5 Chalk, Utah Covered, Over
San Diego State 44 @ 10 Nevada San Diego State -6.5 42.5 Chalk, San Diego State Covered, Over
Utah State 26 vs 44 Hawai'i Hawai'i -1.5 58.5 Chalk, Hawai'i Covered, Over

How We Ranked Week 7's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 7 2025?

Week 7 of the 2025 FBS season features 56 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 7 of the 2025 season features 56 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.