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Week 12 •
Yager Stadium

Toledo24 @FINAL 3Miami (OH)

5-4 MAC Power rating: 0.4
5-4 MAC Power rating: -3.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TOL -5.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TOL -1.0
Edge
+4.5M-OH
See details
◂ favors TOLfavors M-OH ▸Market: TOL -5.5
TOL
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
M-OH
no impact
no impact
no impact
M-OH
2 TOL2 M-OH4 TOL4 M-OHModel: TOL -1.0

Betting information

Spread
TOL -5.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
TOL 25.0 – 19.5 M-OH

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Toledo defeated Miami (OH) 24–3 to secure a comfortable win. Toledo covered by 15.5; Game went Under by 17.5. The market closed at Toledo -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Toledo -1.0 - a gap of 4.5 points toward Miami (OH), of which 3.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Toledo vs Miami (OH)?

Miami (OH)

Quarterback Struggles

Miami (OH) quarterback Henry Hesson completed only 11 of 38 passes for 147 yards and threw three interceptions, leading to a lack of offensive production.

Offensive Line Woes

The RedHawks allowed six sacks, shared by seven different Toledo defenders, which disrupted drives and contributed to the team's inability to sustain momentum.

Limited Total Offense

Miami (OH) managed only 222 total yards, indicating significant difficulties in moving the ball effectively against Toledo's defense.

Defensive Bright Spots

Despite the loss, Miami's defense forced two early interceptions from Toledo's Tucker Gleason, but the offense failed to capitalize, punting on both ensuing drives.

What were the weather conditions for Toledo vs Miami (OH)?

At kickoff, conditions at Yager Stadium were Clear, 32°F, wind chill 25°F with winds of 8 mph. At 32°F, cold is worth noting but is unlikely to be decisive. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Toledo travels 159 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Toledo won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Toledo covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 17.5 points.

How do Toledo and Miami (OH) compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Toledo (0.4) over Miami (OH) (-3.3) by 3.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Miami (OH) faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Miami (OH) brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Toledo and Miami (OH)?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Toledo won and Toledo covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

32°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity92%
Wind8 mph W
Gusts16 mph
Wind chill25°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Toledo at Miami (OH): aerial view of Yager Stadium, wind from the W at 7.8 mph, gusting to 16.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EST
Venue
Yager Stadium
Capacity
30,087
Elevation
797 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

ToledoAway Miami (OH)Home
This week159 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game283 miles
Season total4,309 miles3,013 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest7 days8 days

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