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College Football Week 5 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 5 of the 2025 season features 53 FBS games. Hawai'i leads all road trips at 3,345 miles. James Madison posts the week's top HFA at 3.3 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Hawai'i
3,345 miles · -4h body-clock shift · equal rest
Hawai'i travels 3,345 miles to face Air Force, arriving with a -4h body-clock shift.
#2 California
2,683 miles · -3h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
California travels 2,683 miles to face Boston College, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#3 Oregon
2,293 miles · -3h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
Oregon travels 2,293 miles to face Penn State, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#4 Ohio State
2,010 miles · +3h body-clock shift · away +7d rest
Ohio State travels 2,010 miles to face Washington, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#5 App State
1,888 miles · +2h body-clock shift · away +7d rest
App State travels 1,888 miles to face Boise State, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Rhode Island @ Western Michigan
13°F, 7 mph wind, Mist
Rhode Island @ Western Michigan: 13°F, 7 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Oregon @ Penn State
14°F, 6 mph wind, Mist
Oregon @ Penn State: 14°F, 6 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 Rutgers @ Minnesota
16°F, 7 mph wind, Sunny
Rutgers @ Minnesota: 16°F, 7 mph wind, Sunny — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 James Madison
HFA 3.3 pts · Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 capacity
James Madison carries a 3.3-point HFA edge at Bridgeforth Stadium (24,877 capacity) against Georgia Southern.
#2 Oregon State
HFA 3.2 pts · Reser Stadium · 35,548 capacity
Oregon State carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Reser Stadium (35,548 capacity) against Houston.
#3 Kansas State
HFA 3.1 pts · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 50,000 capacity
Kansas State carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Bill Snyder Family Stadium (50,000 capacity) against UCF.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Massachusetts @ Missouri
Model gap: 43.8 pts · Line: Missouri -44.5 · Home power: 16.3 · Away: -27.5
The model shows Missouri by 43.8 model points; market line is Missouri -44.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 Lindenwood @ Miami (OH)
Model gap: 26.6 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: -5.4 · Away: -32.0
The model shows Miami (OH) by 26.6 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Baylor @ Oklahoma State
Model gap: 26.5 pts · Line: Baylor -20.5 · Home power: -15.4 · Away: 11.1
The model shows Baylor by 26.5 model points; market line is Baylor -20.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 New Mexico State @ New Mexico
Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: New Mexico -13.5
Model gives New Mexico a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours New Mexico relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State
Model: 95% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 45pp · Line: Kennesaw State -8.5
Model gives Kennesaw State a 95% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 45-point gap — model favours Kennesaw State relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Washington State @ Colorado State
Model: 24% home · Market: 67% home · Gap: 43pp · Line: Colorado State -4.5
Model gives Colorado State a 24% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 67%. A 43-point gap — model favours Washington State relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 5 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
Army 6 @ 28 East Carolina East Carolina -4.5 52.5 Chalk, East Carolina Covered, Under
Florida State 38 @ 46 Virginia Florida State -7.5 58.5 Upset, Virginia Covered, Over
TCU 24 @ 27 Arizona State Arizona State -2.5 55.5 Chalk, Arizona State Covered, Under
Houston 27 @ 24 Oregon State Houston -12.5 48.5 Chalk, Oregon State Covered, Over
Rutgers 28 @ 31 Minnesota Minnesota -5.5 50.5 Chalk, Rutgers Covered, Over
Notre Dame 56 @ 13 Arkansas Notre Dame -5.5 64.5 Chalk, Notre Dame Covered, Over
Cincinnati 37 @ 34 Kansas Kansas -6.5 55.5 Upset, Cincinnati Covered, Over
Louisville 34 @ 27 Pittsburgh Louisville -3.5 56.5 Chalk, Louisville Covered, Over
Duke 38 @ 3 Syracuse Duke -4.5 60.5 Chalk, Duke Covered, Under
South Alabama 22 @ 36 North Texas North Texas -12.5 63.5 Chalk, North Texas Covered, Under
Georgia Tech 30 @ 29 Wake Forest Georgia Tech -14.5 53.5 Chalk, Wake Forest Covered, Over
UCF 20 @ 34 Kansas State Kansas State -6.5 49.5 Chalk, Kansas State Covered, Over
USC 32 @ 34 Illinois USC -7.5 59.5 Upset, Illinois Covered, Over
Bowling Green 20 @ 35 Ohio Ohio -10.5 57.5 Chalk, Ohio Covered, Under
Utah State 35 @ 55 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -21.5 59.5 Chalk, Utah State Covered, Over
Eastern Michigan 13 @ 24 Central Michigan Central Michigan -5.5 53.5 Chalk, Central Michigan Covered, Under
Georgia Southern 10 @ 35 James Madison James Madison -16.5 55.5 Chalk, James Madison Covered, Under
Arkansas State 16 @ 28 UL Monroe UL Monroe -2.5 56.5 Chalk, UL Monroe Covered, Under
Auburn 10 @ 16 Texas A&M Texas A&M -6.5 52.5 Chalk, Auburn Covered, Under
LSU 19 @ 24 Ole Miss Ole Miss -2.5 55.5 Chalk, Ole Miss Covered, Under
California 28 @ 24 Boston College Boston College -6.5 50.5 Upset, California Covered, Over
Akron 3 @ 45 Toledo Toledo -20.5 48.5 Chalk, Toledo Covered, Under
Indiana 20 @ 15 Iowa Indiana -7.5 48.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Under
UCLA 14 @ 17 Northwestern Northwestern -6.5 45.5 Chalk, UCLA Covered, Under
Ohio State 24 vs 6 Washington Ohio State -9.5 52.5 Chalk, Ohio State Covered, Under
UConn 20 @ 17 Buffalo UConn -2.5 51.5 Chalk, UConn Covered, Under
Utah 48 vs 14 West Virginia Utah -9.5 49.5 Chalk, Utah Covered, Over
San Diego State 6 @ 3 Northern Illinois San Diego State -2.5 42.5 Chalk, San Diego State Covered, Under
Baylor 45 @ 27 Oklahoma State Baylor -20.5 59.5 Chalk, Oklahoma State Covered, Over
Rice 13 @ 21 Navy Navy -14.5 45.5 Chalk, Rice Covered, Under
Lindenwood 0 @ 38 Miami (OH) N/A N/A –
Tulane 31 @ 14 Tulsa Tulane -14.5 54.5 Chalk, Tulane Covered, Under
Hawai'i 44 @ 35 Air Force Air Force -5.5 53.5 Upset, Hawai'i Covered, Over
New Mexico State 20 vs 38 New Mexico New Mexico -13.5 54.5 Chalk, New Mexico Covered, Over
Tennessee 41 @ 34 Mississippi State Tennessee -7.5 61.5 Chalk, Mississippi State Covered, Over
Liberty 7 vs 21 Old Dominion Old Dominion -16.5 52.5 Chalk, Liberty Covered, Under
Middle Tennessee 16 vs 24 Kennesaw State Kennesaw State -8.5 51.5 Chalk, Middle Tennessee Covered, Under
Rhode Island 14 @ 47 Western Michigan N/A N/A –
Jacksonville State 25 @ 42 Southern Miss Southern Miss -4.5 57.5 Chalk, Southern Miss Covered, Over
Virginia Tech 23 @ 21 NC State NC State -10.5 58.5 Upset, Virginia Tech Covered, Under
Arizona 14 @ 39 Iowa State Iowa State -6.5 50.5 Chalk, Iowa State Covered, Over
Western Kentucky 27 @ 22 Missouri State Western Kentucky -5.5 60.5 Chalk, Missouri State Covered, Under
Memphis 55 @ 26 Florida Atlantic Memphis -13.5 61.5 Chalk, Memphis Covered, Over
Massachusetts 6 @ 42 Missouri Missouri -44.5 56.5 Chalk, Massachusetts Covered, Under
Alabama 24 @ 21 Georgia Georgia -2.5 53.5 Upset, Alabama Covered, Under
Washington State 20 vs 3 Colorado State Colorado State -4.5 50.5 Upset, Washington State Covered, Under
App State 14 @ 47 Boise State Boise State -16.5 60.5 Chalk, Boise State Covered, Over
Oregon 30 @ 24 Penn State Penn State -3.5 52.5 Upset, Oregon Covered, Over
San José State 29 @ 30 Stanford Stanford -2.5 49.5 Chalk, San José State Covered, Over
Kentucky 13 vs 35 South Carolina South Carolina -6.5 46.5 Chalk, South Carolina Covered, Over
Marshall 51 vs 54 Louisiana Louisiana -1.5 46.5 Chalk, Louisiana Covered, Over
Louisiana Tech 30 @ 11 UTEP Louisiana Tech -4.5 48.5 Chalk, Louisiana Tech Covered, Under
BYU 24 @ 21 Colorado BYU -6.5 47.5 Chalk, Colorado Covered, Under

How We Ranked Week 5's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 5 2025?

Week 5 of the 2025 FBS season features 53 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 5 of the 2025 season features 53 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.