Navy defeated South Florida 41–38 in a nail-biter. Navy covered by 12.5; Game went Over by 16.5. Blue Chip Analytics had rated South Florida 8.3 points stronger on a neutral field.
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At kick-off, conditions at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium were Overcast, 50.7°F, Wind Chill 47.3°F with winds of 8.9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
50.7°F
South Florida's offense put up 38 points, with QB Byrum Brown throwing for 327 yards and 2 TDs and rushing for 136 yards and 2 more scores, but the defense allowed 41 points and big plays (three plays of 60+ yards), highlighting a critical weakness.
The Bulls scored 22 points in the fourth quarter to make it a 3-point game, but their comeback effort was undone by an inability to stop Navy's rushing attack, especially in the final period.
This loss marks South Florida's second consecutive road defeat, raising concerns about their performance away from home as they prepare for a road game at UAB next week.
With the loss, South Florida (4-2 in AAC) falls behind Navy (6-1) in the conference standings, making their path to the AAC championship game much more difficult.
Brown's 463 total yards (327 passing, 136 rushing) show he can carry the offense, but the team needs better defensive support and more consistent play from the supporting cast to win close games.
South Florida travels 834 miles to this game, a significant road trip.
Navy won by 3 in a nail-biter.
Navy covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Over by 16.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour South Florida (11.6) over Navy (3.3) by 8.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Navy faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Navy brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Navy won and Navy covered the spread.
