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Week 12 •
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Iowa21 @FINAL 26USC

6-3 Big Ten Power rating: 19.6
7-2 Big Ten Power rating: 21.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USC -6.5
PM Implied
USC -4.8
Blue Chip model
USC -5.6
Edge
-0.9IOWA
See details
◂ favors IOWAfavors USC ▸Market: USC -6.5
USC
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USC
no impact
USC
no impact
no impact
1 IOWA1 USC2 IOWA2 USC3 IOWA3 USCModel: USC -5.6

Betting information

Spread
USC -6.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
IOWA 21.0 – 27.5 USC
Prediction markets
USC 69% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

USC defeated Iowa 26–21 in a closely contested finish. Iowa covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 1.5. The market closed at USC -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it USC -5.6. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for Iowa vs USC?

At kickoff, conditions at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum were Light rain, 58°F with winds of 5 mph. There is a 100% chance of rain, though little accumulation is expected. Blue Chip has not been able to measure a reliable line effect from rain, so treat this as context rather than signal. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Iowa travels 1,547 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

USC won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

Iowa covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 1.5 points.

How do Iowa and USC compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor USC (21.2) over Iowa (19.6) by 1.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. USC brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Iowa and USC?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

USC won and Iowa covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Light rain

58°F

Rain100%
Precip0.05"
Humidity99%
Wind5 mph SSW
Gusts9 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Iowa at USC: aerial view of Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, wind from the SSW at 5.4 mph, gusting to 9.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
12:30 PM PST
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Capacity
77,500
Elevation
177 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

IowaAway USCHome
This week1,547 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total3,849 miles13,142 miles
Body clock14:3012:30
Rest7 days7 days

Other games this week