In-depth explainers and white papers on how college football analytics actually work: power ratings, home-field advantage, line value, and the concepts behind the models.
Our research principles: transparent data and assumptions, a replicable method, and challenges actively encouraged. College football is noise - the job is separating genuine signal from randomness, honestly.
Read more →Most people price home field at two and a half points. Ten seasons and 6,954 games say the assumption is broadly right - but the team-by-team rankings are far noisier. Does that mean there is value? We take a look.
Read more →We ranked 131 teams by how badly ratings and bookmakers missed them across five seasons. The numbers speak for themselves, but is it predictive?
Read more →Fifty familiar beliefs about college football games, run through the same test: does the effect survive team quality, and is anything left after the line? Most are fiction, several are real but fully priced.
Read more →A factor can be completely real and still be worthless, because the line already moved. This is the ledger of what the market charged, what the games delivered, and what was left over.
Read more →Home-field advantage is worth roughly 2-3 points on average, but the range across FBS venues is large. We break down what actually drives it - crowd, travel, altitude, and familiarity - and how to apply it to a line.
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