Week 12
FargodomeIndoor

Northern Iowa16 @FINAL 48North Dakota State , Week 12, Nov 15, 2025

0-0 MVFC Power rating: -26.8
10-0 MVFC Power rating: 1.0

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ND St -34.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
ND St -30.3
Edge
-3.7UNI
See details
◂ favors UNIfavors ND St ▸Market: ND St -34.0
27.8 › ND St
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ND St
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2 UNI2 ND St4 UNI4 ND StModel: ND St -30.3

Betting information

Spread
ND St -34.0
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
UNI 6.8 – 40.8 ND St

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

North Dakota State defeated Northern Iowa 48–16 in a dominant performance. Northern Iowa covered by 2.0; Game went Over by 16.5. The market closed at North Dakota State -34.0 and the Blue Chip model made it North Dakota State -30.3 - a gap of 3.7 points toward Northern Iowa, of which 3.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Northern Iowa vs North Dakota State?

This game was played indoors at Fargodome in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

Northern Iowa travels 370 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

North Dakota State won by 32 in a dominant performance.

Northern Iowa covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 16.5 points.

How do Northern Iowa and North Dakota State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor North Dakota State (1.0) over Northern Iowa (-26.8) by 27.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. North Dakota State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

North Dakota State won and Northern Iowa covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

Fargodome is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for Northern Iowa at North Dakota State: aerial view of Fargodome

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
Fargodome
Capacity
18,700
Elevation
902 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Northern IowaAway North Dakota StateHome
This week370 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week142 miles
Season total1,730 miles7,516 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days