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Week 12 •
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

North Carolina12 @FINAL 28Wake Forest

4-5 ACC Power rating: -0.4
6-3 ACC Power rating: 3.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
WAKE -3.5
PM Implied
WAKE -3.8
Blue Chip model
WAKE -5.9
Edge
+2.4WAKE
See details
◂ favors UNCfavors WAKE ▸Market: WAKE -3.5
3.4 › WAKE
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
WAKE
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 UNC1 WAKE2 UNC2 WAKEModel: WAKE -5.9

Betting information

Spread
WAKE -3.5
Total
37.5
Odds implied score
UNC 17.0 – 20.5 WAKE
Prediction markets
WAKE 65% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Wake Forest defeated North Carolina 28–12 in a double-digit victory. Wake Forest covered by 12.5; Game went Over by 2.5. The market closed at Wake Forest -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Wake Forest -5.9, an edge of 2.4 points toward Wake Forest.

What were the weather conditions for North Carolina vs Wake Forest?

At kickoff, conditions at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium were Overcast, 61°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

North Carolina travels 69 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Wake Forest won by 16 in a double-digit victory.

Wake Forest covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 2.5 points.

How do North Carolina and Wake Forest compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Wake Forest (3.0) over North Carolina (-0.4) by 3.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Wake Forest brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on North Carolina and Wake Forest?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Wake Forest won and Wake Forest covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

61°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity77%
Wind9 mph SW
Gusts17 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for North Carolina at Wake Forest: aerial view of Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, wind from the SW at 8.9 mph, gusting to 16.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
04:30 PM EST
Venue
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity
31,500
Elevation
958 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

North CarolinaAway Wake ForestHome
This week69 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game325 miles
Season total7,096 miles6,022 miles
Body clock16:3016:30
Rest7 days6 days

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