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Week 12 •
Hard Rock Stadium

NC State7 @FINAL 41Miami

5-4 ACC Power rating: 5.8
7-2 ACC Power rating: 24.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MIA -16.5
PM Implied
MIA -10.4
Blue Chip model
MIA -19.5
Edge
+3.0MIA
See details
◂ favors NCSUfavors MIA ▸Market: MIA -16.5
18.7 › MIA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MIA
NCSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 NCSU1 MIA2 NCSU2 MIA3 NCSU3 MIAModel: MIA -19.5

Betting information

Spread
MIA -16.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
NCSU 19.0 – 35.5 MIA
Prediction markets
MIA 84% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Miami defeated NC State 41–7 in a dominant performance. Miami covered by 17.5; Game went Under by 6.5. The market closed at Miami -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -19.5, an edge of 3.0 points toward Miami.

What are the key factors for NC State vs Miami?

NC State

Offensive Struggles Continue

NC State's offense, which entered the game ranked No. 2 in ACC total offense (454 ypg), was held to just 149 total yards and 120 passing yards by Miami's defense. The Wolfpack managed only one touchdown late in the fourth quarter against Miami's reserves, extending their streak of not being shut out to 144 games.

Defensive Collapse

NC State allowed 41 points to Miami, marking the fourth consecutive game in which they have given up 36 or more points. This is the first time the program has done so since a four-game stretch in 2013. The defense was unable to stop Miami's balanced attack, which amassed 581 total yards.

Turnover Troubles

The Wolfpack committed two interceptions in the first quarter, one of which was returned for a touchdown by Miami's Jakobe Thomas. These early turnovers put NC State in a deep hole and contributed to their inability to sustain drives.

Punting Bright Spot

Despite the lopsided loss, punter Caden Fordham performed well, as noted by head coach Dave Doeren. Fordham's punting helped limit Miami's field position at times, but it was not enough to overcome the team's overall struggles.

Upcoming Matchup vs Florida State

NC State will host Florida State on Friday. The Wolfpack will need to address their defensive issues and offensive inconsistency to compete against a Seminoles team that will be looking to build momentum.

What were the weather conditions for NC State vs Miami?

At kickoff, conditions at Hard Rock Stadium were Partly cloudy, 73°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

NC State travels 684 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Miami won by 34 in a dominant performance.

Miami covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 6.5 points.

How do NC State and Miami compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Miami (24.5) over NC State (5.8) by 18.7 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Miami brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on NC State and Miami?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Miami won and Miami covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

73°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity65%
Wind9 mph ENE
Gusts12 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for NC State at Miami: aerial view of Hard Rock Stadium, wind from the ENE at 8.9 mph, gusting to 11.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EST
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Capacity
64,767
Elevation
43 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

NC StateAway MiamiHome
This week684 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total2,703 miles2,997 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest14 days7 days

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