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Week 12 •
Wallace Wade Stadium

Virginia34 @FINAL 17Duke

8-2 ACC Power rating: 12.7
5-4 ACC Power rating: 8.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
DUKE -5.5
PM Implied
DUKE -4.0
Blue Chip model
UVA -1.0
Edge
-6.5UVA
See details
◂ favors UVAfavors DUKE ▸Market: DUKE -5.5
UVA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
DUKE
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 UVA2 DUKE4 UVA4 DUKE6 UVA6 DUKEModel: UVA -1.0

Betting information

Spread
DUKE -5.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
UVA 27.0 – 32.5 DUKE
Prediction markets
DUKE 65% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Virginia defeated Duke 34–17 to secure a comfortable win. Virginia covered by 22.5; Game went Under by 8.5. The market closed at Duke -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Virginia -1.0 - a gap of 6.5 points toward Virginia, of which 5.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Virginia vs Duke?

At kickoff, conditions at Wallace Wade Stadium were Overcast, 65°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Virginia travels 142 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Virginia won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Virginia covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do Virginia and Duke compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Virginia (12.7) over Duke (8.9) by 3.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Duke faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Duke brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Virginia and Duke?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Virginia won and Virginia covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

65°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity64%
Wind9 mph SW
Gusts18 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Virginia at Duke: aerial view of Wallace Wade Stadium, wind from the SW at 9.4 mph, gusting to 17.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EST
Venue
Wallace Wade Stadium
Capacity
40,004
Elevation
384 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

VirginiaAway DukeHome
This week142 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,047 miles
Season total6,271 miles8,840 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest6 days7 days

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