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College Football Week 4 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 4 of the 2025 season features 62 FBS games. Fresno State leads all road trips at 2,517 miles. Louisville posts the week's top HFA at 3.2 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Fresno State
2,517 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Fresno State travels 2,517 miles to face Hawai'i, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#2 Stanford
2,369 miles · -3h body-clock shift · home +1d rest
Stanford travels 2,369 miles to face Virginia, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#3 Michigan State
1,917 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Michigan State travels 1,917 miles to face USC, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#4 BYU
1,889 miles · -2h body-clock shift · away +6d rest
BYU travels 1,889 miles to face East Carolina, arriving with a -2h body-clock shift.
#5 Nevada
1,812 miles · -2h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
Nevada travels 1,812 miles to face Western Kentucky, arriving with a -2h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Ball State @ UConn
14°F, 3 mph wind, Freezing fog
Ball State @ UConn: 14°F, 3 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Iowa @ Rutgers
18°F, 15 mph wind, Clear
Iowa @ Rutgers: 18°F, 15 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 South Carolina @ Missouri
20°F, 6 mph wind, Clear
South Carolina @ Missouri: 20°F, 6 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 Louisville
HFA 3.2 pts · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 60,800 capacity
Louisville carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (60,800 capacity) against Bowling Green.
#2 Utah
HFA 3.1 pts · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 51,444 capacity · 4,655 ft elevation
Utah carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Rice-Eccles Stadium (51,444 capacity) against Texas Tech.
#3 Tennessee
HFA 3.1 pts · Neyland Stadium · 101,915 capacity
Tennessee carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Neyland Stadium (101,915 capacity) against UAB.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Sam Houston @ Texas
Model gap: 41.3 pts · Line: Texas -41.5 · Home power: 19.5 · Away: -21.8
The model shows Texas by 41.3 model points; market line is Texas -41.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 Kent State @ Florida State
Model gap: 37.1 pts · Line: Florida State -44.5 · Home power: 12.8 · Away: -24.3
The model shows Florida State by 37.1 model points; market line is Florida State -44.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Oregon State @ Oregon
Model gap: 33.3 pts · Line: Oregon -35.5 · Home power: 24.8 · Away: -8.5
The model shows Oregon by 33.3 model points; market line is Oregon -35.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Gardner-Webb @ Ohio
Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: Ohio -35.5
Model gives Ohio a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Ohio relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 Murray State @ Jacksonville State
Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: Jacksonville State -24.5
Model gives Jacksonville State a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Jacksonville State relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Nicholls @ Texas State
Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: Texas State -28.5
Model gives Texas State a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Texas State relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 4 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
Rice 28 @ 17 Charlotte Rice -2.5 42.5 Chalk, Rice Covered, Over
Tulsa 19 @ 12 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State -13.5 54.5 Upset, Tulsa Covered, Under
Iowa 38 @ 28 Rutgers Iowa -2.5 45.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Over
Maryland 27 @ 10 Wisconsin Wisconsin -8.5 43.5 Upset, Maryland Covered, Under
SMU 24 @ 35 TCU TCU -6.5 64.5 Chalk, TCU Covered, Under
Syracuse 34 @ 21 Clemson Clemson -17.5 55.5 Upset, Syracuse Covered, Under
Bowling Green 17 @ 40 Louisville Louisville -26.5 51.5 Chalk, Bowling Green Covered, Over
Wofford 6 @ 38 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech -35.5 N/A Chalk, Wofford Covered
South Carolina State 14 @ 63 South Florida South Florida -35.5 N/A Chalk, South Florida Covered
UNLV 41 @ 38 Miami (OH) N/A N/A –
North Texas 45 @ 38 Army Army -1.5 52.5 Upset, North Texas Covered, Over
Arkansas 31 @ 32 Memphis Arkansas -7.5 62.5 Upset, Memphis Covered, Over
Texas Tech 34 @ 10 Utah Utah -3.5 57.5 Upset, Texas Tech Covered, Under
UAB 24 @ 56 Tennessee Tennessee -39.5 67.5 Chalk, UAB Covered, Over
Wagner 10 @ 49 Central Michigan Central Michigan -35.5 N/A Chalk, Central Michigan Covered
Oregon State 7 @ 41 Oregon Oregon -35.5 56.5 Chalk, Oregon State Covered, Under
Purdue 30 @ 56 Notre Dame Notre Dame -26.5 55.5 Chalk, Purdue Covered, Over
Gardner-Webb 35 @ 52 Ohio Ohio -35.5 N/A Chalk, Gardner-Webb Covered
Michigan 30 @ 27 Nebraska Michigan -2.5 44.5 Chalk, Michigan Covered, Over
Kent State 10 @ 66 Florida State Florida State -44.5 55.5 Chalk, Florida State Covered, Over
James Madison 31 @ 13 Liberty James Madison -9.5 49.5 Chalk, James Madison Covered, Under
Troy 21 @ 17 Buffalo Buffalo -6.5 42.5 Upset, Troy Covered, Under
Ball State 25 @ 31 UConn UConn -20.5 52.5 Chalk, Ball State Covered, Over
Toledo 13 @ 14 Western Michigan Toledo -13.5 50.5 Upset, Western Michigan Covered, Under
North Carolina 9 @ 34 UCF UCF -6.5 49.5 Chalk, UCF Covered, Under
Louisiana 31 @ 34 Eastern Michigan Louisiana -2.5 52.5 Upset, Eastern Michigan Covered, Over
Tulane 10 @ 45 Ole Miss Ole Miss -11.5 61.5 Chalk, Ole Miss Covered, Under
Auburn 17 @ 24 Oklahoma Oklahoma -6.5 48.5 Chalk, Oklahoma Covered, Under
NC State 33 @ 45 Duke Duke -3.5 58.5 Chalk, Duke Covered, Over
Northern Illinois 10 @ 38 Mississippi State Mississippi State -21.5 50.5 Chalk, Mississippi State Covered, Under
Temple 24 @ 45 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech -23.5 52.5 Chalk, Temple Covered, Over
Idaho 28 @ 31 San José State San José State -24.5 N/A Chalk, Idaho Covered
Delaware 38 @ 16 Florida International Florida International -5.5 54.5 Upset, Delaware Covered, Under
West Virginia 10 @ 41 Kansas Kansas -11.5 55.5 Chalk, Kansas Covered, Under
Arkansas State 21 vs 28 Kennesaw State Arkansas State -6.5 55.5 Upset, Kennesaw State Covered, Under
Duquesne 7 @ 51 Akron Akron -14.5 N/A Chalk, Akron Covered
Boise State 49 @ 37 Air Force Boise State -10.5 51.5 Chalk, Boise State Covered, Over
Nevada 16 @ 31 Western Kentucky Western Kentucky -10.5 55.5 Chalk, Western Kentucky Covered, Under
UT Martin 10 @ 42 Missouri State Missouri State -17.5 N/A Chalk, Missouri State Covered
Murray State 10 @ 45 Jacksonville State Jacksonville State -24.5 N/A Chalk, Jacksonville State Covered
Marshall 42 @ 28 Middle Tennessee Marshall -2.5 47.5 Chalk, Marshall Covered, Over
Maine 17 @ 45 Georgia Southern Georgia Southern -31.5 N/A Chalk, Maine Covered
Coastal Carolina 38 @ 20 South Alabama South Alabama -14.5 50.5 Upset, Coastal Carolina Covered, Over
South Carolina 20 @ 29 Missouri Missouri -13.5 46.5 Chalk, South Carolina Covered, Over
Illinois 10 @ 63 Indiana Indiana -3.5 52.5 Chalk, Indiana Covered, Over
Stanford 20 @ 48 Virginia Virginia -15.5 48.5 Chalk, Virginia Covered, Over
BYU 34 @ 13 East Carolina BYU -7.5 49.5 Chalk, BYU Covered, Under
Arizona State 27 @ 24 Baylor Baylor -2.5 60.5 Upset, Arizona State Covered, Under
Georgia State 21 @ 70 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -25.5 53.5 Chalk, Vanderbilt Covered, Over
Florida 7 @ 26 Miami Miami -3.0 52.5 Chalk, Miami Covered, Under
Southern Miss 20 @ 30 Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech -3.5 51.5 Chalk, Louisiana Tech Covered, Under
Washington 59 @ 24 Washington State Washington State -20.5 53.5 Upset, Washington Covered, Over
SE Louisiana 10 @ 56 LSU LSU -38.5 N/A Chalk, LSU Covered
Nicholls 3 @ 35 Texas State Texas State -28.5 N/A Chalk, Texas State Covered
McNeese 7 @ 48 Utah State Utah State -24.5 N/A Chalk, Utah State Covered
Sam Houston 0 @ 55 Texas Texas -41.5 51.5 Chalk, Texas Covered, Over
UL Monroe 31 @ 25 UTEP UTEP -4.5 47.5 Upset, UL Monroe Covered, Over
UTSA 17 vs 16 Colorado State UTSA -4.5 59.5 Chalk, Colorado State Covered, Under
Wyoming 20 @ 37 Colorado Colorado -12.5 44.5 Chalk, Colorado Covered, Over
California 0 vs 34 San Diego State California -12.5 48.5 Upset, San Diego State Covered, Under
Michigan State 31 @ 45 USC USC -17.5 56.5 Chalk, Michigan State Covered, Over
Fresno State 23 vs 21 Hawai'i Fresno State -2.5 47.5 Chalk, Hawai'i Covered, Under

How We Ranked Week 4's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 4 2025?

Week 4 of the 2025 FBS season features 62 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 4 of the 2025 season features 62 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.