Week 12
Center Parc Stadium

Marshall30 @FINAL 18Georgia State , Week 12, Nov 15, 2025

4-5 Sun Belt Power rating: -7.2
1-8 Sun Belt Power rating: -16.2

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MRSH -9.5
PM Implied
MRSH -6.5
Blue Chip model
MRSH -7.7
Edge
+1.8GAST
See details
◂ favors MRSHfavors GAST ▸Market: MRSH -9.5
‹ 9.0 MRSH
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GAST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MRSH1 GAST2 MRSH2 GASTModel: MRSH -7.7

Betting information

Spread
MRSH -9.5
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
MRSH 34.5 – 25.0 GAST
Prediction markets
MRSH 74% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Marshall defeated Georgia State 30–18 in a double-digit victory. Marshall covered by 2.5; Game went Under by 11.5. The market closed at Marshall -9.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Marshall -7.7, an edge of 1.8 points toward Georgia State.

What are the key factors for Marshall vs Georgia State?

Georgia State

Turnover Troubles Continue

Quarterback TJ Finley threw two interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown, contributing to the team's inability to overcome deficits. This marks a recurring issue for Georgia State's offense.

Explosive Run Game Shows Promise

Jordon Simmons had a standout performance with 164 yards on 19 carries, including a 92-yard touchdown run. This suggests the running game can be a key weapon if the team can avoid falling behind early.

Defensive Struggles Against the Pass

Marshall's quarterback Carlos Del Rio-Wilson threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns, exposing Georgia State's secondary. The defense allowed multiple big plays and a 97-yard drive late in the game.

Special Teams Bright Spot

Braeden McAlister set a program record with a 60-yard field goal as time expired in the first half, providing a rare highlight. This could be a confidence booster for the kicking game moving forward.

Late Rally Falls Short

Georgia State cut the deficit to three points in the second half after a touchdown and two-point conversion, but could not sustain momentum. The team's inability to finish drives and stop opponents on critical possessions remains a concern.

What were the weather conditions for Marshall vs Georgia State?

At kickoff, conditions at Center Parc Stadium were Partly cloudy, 65°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Marshall travels 342 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Marshall won by 12 in a double-digit victory.

Marshall covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

How do Marshall and Georgia State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Marshall (-7.2) over Georgia State (-16.2) by 9.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Georgia State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Georgia State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Marshall won and Marshall covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

65°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity68%
Wind7 mph SW
Gusts12 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Marshall at Georgia State: aerial view of Center Parc Stadium, wind from the SW at 7.4 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM EST
Venue
Center Parc Stadium
Capacity
24,333
Elevation
978 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure MarshallAway Georgia StateHome
This week342 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game619 miles
Season total3,850 miles1,999 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest7 days7 days