Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week
Teams ranked by how much further they travelled than their opponent. At a neutral site both teams travel, so the gap between them is the burden - not the raw trip. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound it.
677 miles further · -1h body-clock shift · equal rest · neutral site
BYU travels 677 miles further than
Texas Tech to a neutral-site meeting, arriving with a -1h body-clock shift.
608 miles · -1h body-clock shift · equal rest
589 miles · no body-clock shift · opponent +7d rest
521 miles · -1h body-clock shift · opponent +2d rest
UNLV travels 521 miles to face
Boise State, arriving with a -1h body-clock shift.
472 miles · no body-clock shift · +2d rest edge
Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week
Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temp ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, precipitation chance ≥ 60%.
19°F, 2 mph wind, Mist
Troy @
James Madison: 19°F, 2 mph wind, Mist: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
44°F, 1 mph wind, 100% precip, Moderate or heavy rain shower
UNLV @
Boise State: 44°F, 1 mph wind, 100% precip, Moderate or heavy rain shower: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week
Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.
HFA 2.9 pts · Albertsons Stadium · 36,387 capacity
Boise State carries a 2.9-point HFA edge at Albertsons Stadium (36,387 capacity) against
UNLV.
HFA 2.7 pts · Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 capacity
James Madison carries a 2.7-point HFA edge at Bridgeforth Stadium (24,877 capacity) against
Troy.
HFA 2.7 pts · Yulman Stadium · 30,000 capacity
Tulane carries a 2.7-point HFA edge at Yulman Stadium (30,000 capacity) against
North Texas.
Model versus Market
Where the Blue Chip model line diverges most from the bookmaker line and the Kalshi prediction market - a three-way read. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup: directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.
Model: Texas Tech -2.2 · Book: Texas Tech -12.5 · Market: unavailable
The model makes it
Texas Tech -2.2. The bookmaker line is
Texas Tech -12.5, a notable divergence from the model. Directional signal only.
Model: Boise State -15.8 · Book: Boise State -6.0 · Market: unavailable
The model makes it
Boise State -15.8. The bookmaker line is
Boise State -6.0, a notable divergence from the model. Directional signal only.
Model: James Madison -17.2 · Book: James Madison -24.5 · Market: unavailable
The model makes it
James Madison -17.2. The bookmaker line is
James Madison -24.5, a notable divergence from the model. Directional signal only.
Notable ATS Records This Week
Teams in this week's games with a cover rate of ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold) ATS this season, minimum 4 games with a decided ATS result.
Hot ATS ·
11-2 ATS (85%) ·
home vs. BYU
Texas Tech is hot ats this season, covering 11-2 (85%) ATS in 13 games. They play home vs.
BYU this week.
Troy is hot ats this season, covering 10-4 (71%) ATS in 14 games. They play away @
James Madison this week.
Hot ATS ·
10-4 ATS (71%) ·
away @ Tulane
North Texas is hot ats this season, covering 10-4 (71%) ATS in 14 games. They play away @
Tulane this week.
BYU is hot ats this season, covering 10-4 (71%) ATS in 14 games. They play away @
Texas Tech this week.
How We Ranked Week 15's Games
Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data that powers our per-game pages.
Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home
market to the game stadium. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team
crosses, or both teams in case of neutral site games. Rest-day differential is the difference in
days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation
against fixed thresholds, dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors, see our
Weather tool for the full methodology.
HFA ratings come from our
Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates
the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft
are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the
Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between
the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting
recommendation.
The Vegas versus Prediction Markets section compares the bookmaker's spread with the spread
implied by the Kalshi prediction market - converted from its win probability through a fixed
logistic scale - with no model involved. The Model versus Market section sets the Blue Chip
model line against both of those markets as a three-way read, and each gap is described with the
same language the per-game pages use. ATS records are season-to-date.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many games are in college football Week 15 2025?
Week 15 of the 2025 FBS season features 10 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.
How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?
Teams are ranked by how much further they travelled than their opponent, measured as straight-line distance from each home market to the game stadium. At a home game the host travels nothing, so this is simply the visitor's trip; at a neutral site both teams travel and the gap between them is the burden. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.
What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?
Games are flagged when the kickoff-hour forecast meets at least one of: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temperature ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, or a precipitation chance ≥ 60%. Scores compound across all factors: a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one. Weeks with no game past these thresholds show no weather section at all.
What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?
Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their power ratings alone would predict.
What does the Vegas versus Prediction Markets section show?
It ranks games by how far the bookmaker's spread sits from the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market. Kalshi's win probability is converted to a spread through a fixed logistic scale, and no model is involved - it is one market against another. A wide gap is a directional flag, not a betting recommendation.
What does the Model versus Market section show?
It sets the Blue Chip model line against both the bookmaker line and the Kalshi-implied line - a three-way read - and ranks games by the model's largest disagreement with either market. The size of each gap is described in the same language the per-game pages use. Both the model and the markets can be wrong: treat it as a directional flag, not a pick.
What qualifies as a notable ATS record?
Teams are flagged when at least 4 of their games this season have produced a decided ATS result and their cover rate is ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold). Records are season-to-date and, especially early on, rest on small samples - a hot or cold streak here is context to note, not a demonstrated edge.
Week 15 of the 2025 season features 10 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, market-vs-market, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.
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