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Week 12 •
Kelly/Shorts Stadium

Buffalo19 @FINAL 38Central Michigan

5-4 MAC Power rating: -7.4
5-4 MAC Power rating: -7.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
CMU -2.5
PM Implied
CMU -1.4
Blue Chip model
CMU -3.1
Edge
+0.7CMU
See details
◂ favors BUFfavors CMU ▸Market: CMU -2.5
BUF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CMU
no impact
no impact
no impact
CMU
1 BUF1 CMU2 BUF2 CMU3 BUF3 CMUModel: CMU -3.1

Betting information

Spread
CMU -2.5
Total
44.5
Odds implied score
BUF 21.0 – 23.5 CMU
Prediction markets
CMU 56% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Central Michigan defeated Buffalo 38–19 to secure a comfortable win. Central Michigan covered by 16.5; Game went Over by 12.5. The market closed at Central Michigan -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Central Michigan -3.1. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Buffalo vs Central Michigan?

Central Michigan

Bowl Eligibility Achieved

Central Michigan became bowl eligible for the first time in four years with a 38-19 win over Buffalo, improving to 6-4 overall.

Defensive Dominance

The Chippewas scored two defensive touchdowns: a 48-yard interception return by Jordan Kwiatkowski and an 85-yard fumble return by Dakota Cochran, showcasing a disruptive defense.

Strong Home Field Advantage

Central Michigan has won five straight home games, is 4-0 at home this season, and has won eight of their last ten at Kelly/Shorts Stadium, indicating a significant home-field edge.

Efficient Passing Attack

Quarterback Joe Labas completed 18 of 24 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard strike to Langston Lewis, providing a reliable aerial threat.

Tied for Second in MAC

The Chippewas are part of a five-way tie for second place in the MAC, one game behind Western Michigan, keeping them in contention for a division title.

What were the weather conditions for Buffalo vs Central Michigan?

At kickoff, conditions at Kelly/Shorts Stadium were Mist, 30°F, wind chill 23°F with winds of 8 mph. At 30°F this is a freezing game. Cold is a scoring-environment factor rather than a side factor: Blue Chip has not measured a reliable spread effect from temperature. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Buffalo travels 305 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Central Michigan won by 19 to secure a comfortable win.

Central Michigan covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 12.5 points.

How do Buffalo and Central Michigan compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Buffalo (-7.4) and Central Michigan (-7.6) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. Central Michigan brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Buffalo and Central Michigan?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Central Michigan won and Central Michigan covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 13, 2025 Game-time

Mist

30°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity95%
Wind8 mph W
Gusts16 mph
Wind chill23°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Buffalo at Central Michigan: aerial view of Kelly/Shorts Stadium, wind from the W at 7.8 mph, gusting to 16.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EST
Venue
Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Capacity
35,127
Elevation
807 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

BuffaloAway Central MichiganHome
This week305 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total3,321 miles5,835 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest12 days12 days

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