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College Football Week 8 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 8 of the 2025 season features 60 FBS games. Hawai'i leads all road trips at 3,343 miles. James Madison posts the week's top HFA at 3.3 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Hawai'i
3,343 miles · -4h body-clock shift · equal rest
Hawai'i travels 3,343 miles to face Colorado State, arriving with a -4h body-clock shift.
#2 Oregon
2,467 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Oregon travels 2,467 miles to face Rutgers, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#3 Lafayette
2,429 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Lafayette travels 2,429 miles to face Oregon State, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#4 North Carolina
2,375 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
North Carolina travels 2,375 miles to face California, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#5 Maryland
2,297 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Maryland travels 2,297 miles to face UCLA, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Ohio State @ Wisconsin
14°F, 7 mph wind, Mist
Ohio State @ Wisconsin: 14°F, 7 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Oregon @ Rutgers
14°F, 5 mph wind, Mist
Oregon @ Rutgers: 14°F, 5 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 Florida International @ Western Kentucky
15°F, 5 mph wind, Mist
Florida International @ Western Kentucky: 15°F, 5 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 James Madison
HFA 3.3 pts · Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 capacity
James Madison carries a 3.3-point HFA edge at Bridgeforth Stadium (24,877 capacity) against Old Dominion.
#2 Oregon State
HFA 3.2 pts · Reser Stadium · 35,548 capacity
Oregon State carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Reser Stadium (35,548 capacity) against Lafayette.
#3 South Alabama
HFA 3.1 pts · Hancock Whitney Stadium · 25,450 capacity
South Alabama carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Hancock Whitney Stadium (25,450 capacity) against Arkansas State.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Kent State @ Toledo
Model gap: 26.6 pts · Line: Toledo -24.5 · Home power: 1.4 · Away: -25.2
The model shows Toledo by 26.6 model points; market line is Toledo -24.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 Ohio State @ Wisconsin
Model gap: 26.4 pts · Line: Ohio State -26.5 · Home power: 4.4 · Away: 30.8
The model shows Ohio State by 26.4 model points; market line is Ohio State -26.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State
Model gap: 26.3 pts · Line: Cincinnati -22.5 · Home power: -15.0 · Away: 11.3
The model shows Cincinnati by 26.3 model points; market line is Cincinnati -22.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Kent State @ Toledo
Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: Toledo -24.5
Model gives Toledo a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Toledo relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 North Carolina @ California
Model: 44% home · Market: 75% home · Gap: 31pp · Line: California -10.5
Model gives California a 44% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 75%. A 31-point gap — model favours North Carolina relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Arkansas State @ South Alabama
Model: 43% home · Market: 72% home · Gap: 29pp · Line: South Alabama -6.5
Model gives South Alabama a 43% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 72%. A 29-point gap — model favours Arkansas State relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 8 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
New Mexico State 27 @ 30 Liberty Liberty -10.5 47.5 Chalk, New Mexico State Covered, Over
Arkansas State 15 @ 14 South Alabama South Alabama -6.5 60.5 Upset, Arkansas State Covered, Under
Florida International 25 @ 6 Western Kentucky Western Kentucky -7.5 57.5 Upset, Florida International Covered, Under
UTEP 35 vs 17 Sam Houston UTEP -2.5 47.5 Chalk, UTEP Covered, Over
Delaware 25 @ 38 Jacksonville State Delaware -2.5 57.5 Upset, Jacksonville State Covered, Over
Tulsa 27 @ 41 East Carolina East Carolina -16.5 54.5 Chalk, Tulsa Covered, Over
Louisville 24 @ 21 Miami Miami -13.5 53.5 Upset, Louisville Covered, Under
Nebraska 6 @ 24 Minnesota Nebraska -7.5 46.5 Upset, Minnesota Covered, Under
San José State 25 @ 30 Utah State Utah State -4.5 65.5 Chalk, Utah State Covered, Under
North Carolina 18 @ 21 California California -10.5 47.5 Chalk, North Carolina Covered, Under
Eastern Michigan 30 @ 44 Miami (OH) Miami (OH) -13.5 48.5 Chalk, Miami (OH) Covered, Over
Central Michigan 27 @ 6 Bowling Green Bowling Green -5.5 43.5 Upset, Central Michigan Covered, Under
LSU 24 @ 31 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -2.5 49.5 Chalk, Vanderbilt Covered, Over
Washington 7 @ 24 Michigan Michigan -5.5 50.5 Chalk, Michigan Covered, Under
Arizona 28 @ 31 Houston Houston -2.5 47.5 Chalk, Houston Covered, Over
Army 17 vs 24 Tulane Tulane -9.5 46.5 Chalk, Army Covered, Under
Georgia Tech 27 @ 18 Duke Duke -2.5 61.5 Upset, Georgia Tech Covered, Under
Baylor 36 @ 42 TCU TCU -2.5 65.5 Chalk, TCU Covered, Over
UConn 38 @ 23 Boston College Boston College -1.5 57.5 Upset, UConn Covered, Over
Oklahoma 26 vs 7 South Carolina Oklahoma -3.5 43.5 Chalk, Oklahoma Covered, Under
West Virginia 13 @ 45 UCF UCF -7.5 48.5 Chalk, UCF Covered, Over
Kent State 10 @ 45 Toledo Toledo -24.5 50.5 Chalk, Toledo Covered, Over
Buffalo 28 @ 21 Massachusetts Buffalo -16.5 44.5 Chalk, Massachusetts Covered, Over
Troy 37 @ 14 UL Monroe Troy -5.5 46.5 Chalk, Troy Covered, Over
Purdue 0 @ 19 Northwestern Northwestern -3.5 48.5 Chalk, Northwestern Covered, Under
UNLV 31 @ 56 Boise State Boise State -10.5 63.5 Chalk, Boise State Covered, Over
Old Dominion 27 @ 63 James Madison James Madison -1.5 47.5 Chalk, James Madison Covered, Over
Ole Miss 35 @ 43 Georgia Georgia -7.5 54.5 Chalk, Georgia Covered, Over
Texas State 37 @ 40 Marshall Texas State -2.5 55.5 Upset, Marshall Covered, Over
UTSA 17 @ 55 North Texas North Texas -4.5 68.5 Chalk, North Texas Covered, Over
Akron 28 vs 42 Ball State Ball State -1.5 43.5 Chalk, Ball State Covered, Over
Temple 49 @ 14 Charlotte Temple -11.5 48.5 Chalk, Temple Covered, Over
SMU 35 @ 24 Clemson Clemson -9.5 54.5 Upset, SMU Covered, Over
Northern Illinois 21 @ 48 Ohio Ohio -11.5 42.5 Chalk, Ohio Covered, Over
Coastal Carolina 45 @ 37 App State App State -10.5 50.5 Upset, Coastal Carolina Covered, Over
Michigan State 13 @ 38 Indiana Indiana -27.5 53.5 Chalk, Michigan State Covered, Under
Wyoming 21 @ 24 Air Force Air Force -5.5 58.5 Chalk, Wyoming Covered, Under
Texas A&M 45 @ 42 Arkansas Texas A&M -7.5 62.5 Chalk, Arkansas Covered, Over
Ohio State 34 @ 0 Wisconsin Ohio State -26.5 41.5 Chalk, Ohio State Covered, Under
Memphis 24 @ 31 UAB Memphis -20.5 63.5 Upset, UAB Covered, Under
Texas Tech 22 @ 26 Arizona State Texas Tech -11.5 48.5 Upset, Arizona State Covered, Under
Mississippi State 21 @ 23 Florida Florida -9.5 52.5 Chalk, Mississippi State Covered, Under
Southern Miss 22 vs 10 Louisiana Louisiana -4.5 54.5 Upset, Southern Miss Covered, Under
Washington State 20 @ 22 Virginia Virginia -17.5 56.5 Chalk, Washington State Covered, Under
Oregon 56 @ 10 Rutgers Oregon -17.5 60.5 Chalk, Oregon Covered, Over
Maryland 17 @ 20 UCLA UCLA -3.5 52.5 Chalk, Maryland Covered, Under
Hawai'i 31 vs 19 Colorado State Colorado State -1.5 54.5 Upset, Hawai'i Covered, Under
Penn State 24 @ 25 Iowa Iowa -3.5 39.5 Chalk, Penn State Covered, Over
Georgia State 24 @ 41 Georgia Southern Georgia Southern -7.5 59.5 Chalk, Georgia Southern Covered, Over
Texas 16 @ 13 Kentucky Texas -10.5 43.5 Chalk, Kentucky Covered, Under
Florida Atlantic 13 @ 48 South Florida South Florida -21.5 73.5 Chalk, South Florida Covered, Under
Pittsburgh 30 @ 13 Syracuse Pittsburgh -10.5 55.5 Chalk, Pittsburgh Covered, Under
Tennessee 20 @ 37 Alabama Alabama -9.5 59.5 Chalk, Alabama Covered, Under
USC 24 @ 34 Notre Dame Notre Dame -8.5 61.5 Chalk, Notre Dame Covered, Under
Missouri 23 @ 17 Auburn Missouri -1.5 44.5 Chalk, Missouri Covered, Under
Cincinnati 49 @ 17 Oklahoma State Cincinnati -22.5 58.5 Chalk, Cincinnati Covered, Over
Utah 21 @ 24 BYU Utah -3.5 48.5 Upset, BYU Covered, Under
Nevada 22 vs 24 New Mexico New Mexico -10.5 48.5 Chalk, Nevada Covered, Under
Lafayette 13 @ 45 Oregon State N/A N/A –
Florida State 13 @ 20 Stanford Florida State -18.5 54.5 Upset, Stanford Covered, Under

How We Ranked Week 8's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 8 2025?

Week 8 of the 2025 FBS season features 60 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 8 of the 2025 season features 60 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.