Week 12
Valley Children's Stadium

Wyoming3 @FINAL 24Fresno State , Week 12, Nov 16, 2025

4-5 MW Power rating: -7.1
6-3 MW Power rating: -3.7

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FRES -3.0
PM Implied
FRES -2.1
Blue Chip model
FRES -6.3
Edge
+3.3FRES
See details
◂ favors WYOfavors FRES ▸Market: FRES -3.0
FRES
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
FRES
no impact
FRES
no impact
no impact
1 WYO1 FRES2 WYO2 FRES3 WYO3 FRESModel: FRES -6.3

Betting information

Spread
FRES -3.0
Total
40.5
Odds implied score
WYO 18.8 – 21.8 FRES
Prediction markets
FRES 59% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Fresno State defeated Wyoming 24–3 to secure a comfortable win. Fresno State covered by 18.0; Game went Under by 13.5. The market closed at Fresno State -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Fresno State -6.3, an edge of 3.3 points toward Fresno State.

What are the key factors for Wyoming vs Fresno State?

Fresno State

Dominant rushing attack

Fresno State's ground game was decisive, with Jonathan Arceneaux and Bryson Donelson each scoring rushing touchdowns. Arceneaux's 58-yard TD run in the fourth quarter broke the game open, highlighting the team's ability to exploit defensive gaps.

Stifling defense

The Bulldogs held Wyoming to just 184 total yards and nine first downs, forcing five three-and-outs and two failed fourth-down conversions. This defensive performance suggests Fresno State can control games against weaker opponents.

Efficient special teams

Erik Sandvik's 41-yard field goal and Dylan Lynch's 40-yard field goal provided crucial points, while Al'zillion Hamilton's interception and return set up a key touchdown. Special teams contributed to field position and scoring.

Balanced offensive execution

Fresno State mixed run and pass effectively, with Carson Conklin throwing a 13-yard touchdown pass to Josiah Freeman. The offense sustained drives, including a 10-play, 73-yard opening drive, showing ability to control tempo.

Improved record and momentum

Improving to 7-3 overall and 4-2 in conference play, Fresno State has built momentum with a strong defensive showing and efficient offense. This win positions them well for upcoming games, especially against teams with similar or weaker offensive capabilities.

What were the weather conditions for Wyoming vs Fresno State?

At kickoff, conditions at Valley Children's Stadium were Cloudy, 51°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Wyoming travels 822 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Wyoming arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Fresno State won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Fresno State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 13.5 points.

How do Wyoming and Fresno State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Fresno State (-3.7) over Wyoming (-7.1) by 3.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Fresno State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Fresno State won and Fresno State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 16, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

51°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity88%
Wind5 mph ESE
Gusts7 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Wyoming at Fresno State: aerial view of Valley Children's Stadium, wind from the ESE at 4.9 mph, gusting to 7.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM PST
Venue
Valley Children's Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
351 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure WyomingAway Fresno StateHome
This week822 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total5,567 miles11,529 miles
Body clock20:3019:30
Rest15 days15 days