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College Football Week 6 — 2025

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Week 6 of the 2025 season features 51 FBS games. Duke leads all road trips at 2,379 miles. SMU posts the week's top HFA at 3.2 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Week 6 Games at a Glance

Matchup Date Line O/U Result
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State 2025-10-03 Sam Houston -2.5 53.5 New Mexico State 37 – Sam Houston 10
Charlotte @ South Florida 2025-10-03 South Florida -26.5 55.5 South Florida 54 – Charlotte 26
Western Kentucky @ Delaware 2025-10-03 Delaware -2.5 62.5 Western Kentucky 27 – Delaware 24
New Mexico @ San José State 2025-10-04 San José State -2.5 57.5 San José State 35 – New Mexico 28
West Virginia @ BYU 2025-10-04 BYU -18.5 48.5 BYU 38 – West Virginia 24
Colorado State @ San Diego State 2025-10-04 San Diego State -5.5 39.5 San Diego State 45 – Colorado State 24
Kansas State @ Baylor 2025-10-04 Baylor -6.5 62.5 Baylor 35 – Kansas State 34
Army @ UAB 2025-10-04 Army -6.5 57.5 Army 31 – UAB 13
Boston College @ Pittsburgh 2025-10-04 Pittsburgh -6.5 57.5 Pittsburgh 48 – Boston College 7
Iowa State @ Cincinnati 2025-10-04 Iowa State -1.5 52.5 Cincinnati 38 – Iowa State 30
Illinois @ Purdue 2025-10-04 Illinois -9.5 55.5 Illinois 43 – Purdue 27
Ohio @ Ball State 2025-10-04 Ohio -14.5 51.5 Ball State 20 – Ohio 14
Clemson @ North Carolina 2025-10-04 Clemson -13.5 46.5 Clemson 38 – North Carolina 10
Air Force @ Navy 2025-10-04 Navy -10.5 49.5 Navy 34 – Air Force 31
Kentucky @ Georgia 2025-10-04 Georgia -20.5 48.5 Georgia 35 – Kentucky 14
Wisconsin @ Michigan 2025-10-04 Michigan -16.5 42.5 Michigan 24 – Wisconsin 10
UTSA @ Temple 2025-10-04 UTSA -6.5 57.5 Temple 27 – UTSA 21
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech 2025-10-04 Virginia Tech -5.5 51.5 Wake Forest 30 – Virginia Tech 23
Campbell @ NC State 2025-10-04 N/A N/A NC State 56 – Campbell 10
Western Michigan @ Massachusetts 2025-10-04 Western Michigan -12.5 45.5 Western Michigan 21 – Massachusetts 3
Oklahoma State @ Arizona 2025-10-04 Arizona -19.5 56.5 Arizona 41 – Oklahoma State 13
James Madison @ Georgia State 2025-10-04 James Madison -19.5 54.5 James Madison 14 – Georgia State 7
Syracuse @ SMU 2025-10-04 SMU -16.5 58.5 SMU 31 – Syracuse 18
Boise State @ Notre Dame 2025-10-04 Notre Dame -18.5 64.5 Notre Dame 28 – Boise State 7
Oregon State @ App State 2025-10-04 Oregon State -2.5 54.5 App State 27 – Oregon State 23
Vanderbilt @ Alabama 2025-10-04 Alabama -9.5 56.5 Alabama 30 – Vanderbilt 14
Washington @ Maryland 2025-10-04 Washington -5.5 52.5 Washington 24 – Maryland 20
UL Monroe @ Northwestern 2025-10-04 Northwestern -10.5 40.5 Northwestern 42 – UL Monroe 7
Florida International @ UConn 2025-10-04 UConn -8.5 54.5 UConn 51 – Florida International 10
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois 2025-10-04 Miami (OH) -4.5 39.5 Miami (OH) 25 – Northern Illinois 14
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo 2025-10-04 Buffalo -10.5 49.5 Buffalo 31 – Eastern Michigan 30
Central Michigan @ Akron 2025-10-04 Central Michigan -6.5 45.5 Akron 28 – Central Michigan 22
Virginia @ Louisville 2025-10-04 Louisville -6.5 62.5 Virginia 30 – Louisville 27
Penn State @ UCLA 2025-10-04 Penn State -24.5 50.5 UCLA 42 – Penn State 37
Texas @ Florida 2025-10-04 Texas -6.5 44.5 Florida 29 – Texas 21
Kent State @ Oklahoma 2025-10-04 Oklahoma -45.5 53.5 Oklahoma 44 – Kent State 0
Michigan State @ Nebraska 2025-10-04 Nebraska -11.5 53.5 Nebraska 38 – Michigan State 27
Texas State @ Arkansas State 2025-10-04 Texas State -13.5 63.5 Arkansas State 31 – Texas State 30
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion 2025-10-04 Old Dominion -16.5 54.5 Old Dominion 47 – Coastal Carolina 7
Texas Tech @ Houston 2025-10-04 Texas Tech -12.5 50.5 Texas Tech 35 – Houston 11
South Alabama @ Troy 2025-10-04 Troy -2.5 47.5 Troy 31 – South Alabama 24
UNLV @ Wyoming 2025-10-04 UNLV -5.5 53.5 UNLV 31 – Wyoming 17
Florida Atlantic @ Rice 2025-10-04 Rice -4.5 52.5 Florida Atlantic 27 – Rice 21
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 2025-10-04 Texas A&M -14.5 57.5 Texas A&M 31 – Mississippi State 9
Kansas @ UCF 2025-10-04 Kansas -3.5 55.5 Kansas 27 – UCF 20
Miami @ Florida State 2025-10-04 Miami -4.5 54.5 Miami 28 – Florida State 22
Colorado @ TCU 2025-10-04 TCU -14.5 58.5 TCU 35 – Colorado 21
Minnesota @ Ohio State 2025-10-04 Ohio State -23.5 44.5 Ohio State 42 – Minnesota 3
Tulsa @ Memphis 2025-10-05 Memphis -20.5 55.5 Memphis 45 – Tulsa 7
Nevada @ Fresno State 2025-10-05 Fresno State -14.5 44.5 Fresno State 20 – Nevada 17
Duke @ California 2025-10-05 Duke -2.5 55.5 Duke 45 – California 21

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Duke
2,379 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Duke travels 2,379 miles to face California, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#2 Washington
2,327 miles · -3h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
Washington travels 2,327 miles to face Maryland, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#3 Oregon State
2,243 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Oregon State travels 2,243 miles to face App State, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#4 Penn State
2,242 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Penn State travels 2,242 miles to face UCLA, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
#5 West Virginia
1,675 miles · +2h body-clock shift · away +1d rest
West Virginia travels 1,675 miles to face BYU, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Florida International @ UConn
14°F, 3 mph wind, Freezing fog
Florida International @ UConn: 14°F, 3 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Western Michigan @ Massachusetts
16°F, 4 mph wind, Clear
Western Michigan @ Massachusetts: 16°F, 4 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 Western Kentucky @ Delaware
16°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog
Western Kentucky @ Delaware: 16°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 SMU
HFA 3.2 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity
SMU carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against Syracuse.
#2 Louisville
HFA 3.2 pts · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 60,800 capacity
Louisville carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (60,800 capacity) against Virginia.
#3 New Mexico State
HFA 3.1 pts · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 28,853 capacity
New Mexico State carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Aggie Memorial Stadium (28,853 capacity) against Sam Houston.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Kent State @ Oklahoma
Model gap: 44.0 pts · Line: Oklahoma -45.5 · Home power: 19.7 · Away: -24.3
The model shows Oklahoma by 44.0 model points; market line is Oklahoma -45.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 Campbell @ NC State
Model gap: 34.5 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 6.5 · Away: -28.0
The model shows NC State by 34.5 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Charlotte @ South Florida
Model gap: 30.5 pts · Line: South Florida -26.5 · Home power: 10.1 · Away: -20.4
The model shows South Florida by 30.5 model points; market line is South Florida -26.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Tulsa @ Memphis
Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: Memphis -20.5
Model gives Memphis a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Memphis relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 Boston College @ Pittsburgh
Model: 98% home · Market: 70% home · Gap: 28pp · Line: Pittsburgh -6.5
Model gives Pittsburgh a 98% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 70%. A 28-point gap — model favours Pittsburgh relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Florida Atlantic @ Rice
Model: 39% home · Market: 65% home · Gap: 26pp · Line: Rice -4.5
Model gives Rice a 39% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 65%. A 26-point gap — model favours Florida Atlantic relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 6 Games

Matchup Date Line O/U Result
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State 2025-10-03 Sam Houston -2.5 53.5 New Mexico State 37 – Sam Houston 10
Charlotte @ South Florida 2025-10-03 South Florida -26.5 55.5 South Florida 54 – Charlotte 26
Western Kentucky @ Delaware 2025-10-03 Delaware -2.5 62.5 Western Kentucky 27 – Delaware 24
New Mexico @ San José State 2025-10-04 San José State -2.5 57.5 San José State 35 – New Mexico 28
West Virginia @ BYU 2025-10-04 BYU -18.5 48.5 BYU 38 – West Virginia 24
Colorado State @ San Diego State 2025-10-04 San Diego State -5.5 39.5 San Diego State 45 – Colorado State 24
Kansas State @ Baylor 2025-10-04 Baylor -6.5 62.5 Baylor 35 – Kansas State 34
Army @ UAB 2025-10-04 Army -6.5 57.5 Army 31 – UAB 13
Boston College @ Pittsburgh 2025-10-04 Pittsburgh -6.5 57.5 Pittsburgh 48 – Boston College 7
Iowa State @ Cincinnati 2025-10-04 Iowa State -1.5 52.5 Cincinnati 38 – Iowa State 30
Illinois @ Purdue 2025-10-04 Illinois -9.5 55.5 Illinois 43 – Purdue 27
Ohio @ Ball State 2025-10-04 Ohio -14.5 51.5 Ball State 20 – Ohio 14
Clemson @ North Carolina 2025-10-04 Clemson -13.5 46.5 Clemson 38 – North Carolina 10
Air Force @ Navy 2025-10-04 Navy -10.5 49.5 Navy 34 – Air Force 31
Kentucky @ Georgia 2025-10-04 Georgia -20.5 48.5 Georgia 35 – Kentucky 14
Wisconsin @ Michigan 2025-10-04 Michigan -16.5 42.5 Michigan 24 – Wisconsin 10
UTSA @ Temple 2025-10-04 UTSA -6.5 57.5 Temple 27 – UTSA 21
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech 2025-10-04 Virginia Tech -5.5 51.5 Wake Forest 30 – Virginia Tech 23
Campbell @ NC State 2025-10-04 N/A N/A NC State 56 – Campbell 10
Western Michigan @ Massachusetts 2025-10-04 Western Michigan -12.5 45.5 Western Michigan 21 – Massachusetts 3
Oklahoma State @ Arizona 2025-10-04 Arizona -19.5 56.5 Arizona 41 – Oklahoma State 13
James Madison @ Georgia State 2025-10-04 James Madison -19.5 54.5 James Madison 14 – Georgia State 7
Syracuse @ SMU 2025-10-04 SMU -16.5 58.5 SMU 31 – Syracuse 18
Boise State @ Notre Dame 2025-10-04 Notre Dame -18.5 64.5 Notre Dame 28 – Boise State 7
Oregon State @ App State 2025-10-04 Oregon State -2.5 54.5 App State 27 – Oregon State 23
Vanderbilt @ Alabama 2025-10-04 Alabama -9.5 56.5 Alabama 30 – Vanderbilt 14
Washington @ Maryland 2025-10-04 Washington -5.5 52.5 Washington 24 – Maryland 20
UL Monroe @ Northwestern 2025-10-04 Northwestern -10.5 40.5 Northwestern 42 – UL Monroe 7
Florida International @ UConn 2025-10-04 UConn -8.5 54.5 UConn 51 – Florida International 10
Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois 2025-10-04 Miami (OH) -4.5 39.5 Miami (OH) 25 – Northern Illinois 14
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo 2025-10-04 Buffalo -10.5 49.5 Buffalo 31 – Eastern Michigan 30
Central Michigan @ Akron 2025-10-04 Central Michigan -6.5 45.5 Akron 28 – Central Michigan 22
Virginia @ Louisville 2025-10-04 Louisville -6.5 62.5 Virginia 30 – Louisville 27
Penn State @ UCLA 2025-10-04 Penn State -24.5 50.5 UCLA 42 – Penn State 37
Texas @ Florida 2025-10-04 Texas -6.5 44.5 Florida 29 – Texas 21
Kent State @ Oklahoma 2025-10-04 Oklahoma -45.5 53.5 Oklahoma 44 – Kent State 0
Michigan State @ Nebraska 2025-10-04 Nebraska -11.5 53.5 Nebraska 38 – Michigan State 27
Texas State @ Arkansas State 2025-10-04 Texas State -13.5 63.5 Arkansas State 31 – Texas State 30
Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion 2025-10-04 Old Dominion -16.5 54.5 Old Dominion 47 – Coastal Carolina 7
Texas Tech @ Houston 2025-10-04 Texas Tech -12.5 50.5 Texas Tech 35 – Houston 11
South Alabama @ Troy 2025-10-04 Troy -2.5 47.5 Troy 31 – South Alabama 24
UNLV @ Wyoming 2025-10-04 UNLV -5.5 53.5 UNLV 31 – Wyoming 17
Florida Atlantic @ Rice 2025-10-04 Rice -4.5 52.5 Florida Atlantic 27 – Rice 21
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M 2025-10-04 Texas A&M -14.5 57.5 Texas A&M 31 – Mississippi State 9
Kansas @ UCF 2025-10-04 Kansas -3.5 55.5 Kansas 27 – UCF 20
Miami @ Florida State 2025-10-04 Miami -4.5 54.5 Miami 28 – Florida State 22
Colorado @ TCU 2025-10-04 TCU -14.5 58.5 TCU 35 – Colorado 21
Minnesota @ Ohio State 2025-10-04 Ohio State -23.5 44.5 Ohio State 42 – Minnesota 3
Tulsa @ Memphis 2025-10-05 Memphis -20.5 55.5 Memphis 45 – Tulsa 7
Nevada @ Fresno State 2025-10-05 Fresno State -14.5 44.5 Fresno State 20 – Nevada 17
Duke @ California 2025-10-05 Duke -2.5 55.5 Duke 45 – California 21

How We Ranked Week 6's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 6 2025?

Week 6 of the 2025 FBS season features 51 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 6 of the 2025 season features 51 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.