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Week 12 •
University Stadium (NM)

Colorado State17 @FINAL 20New Mexico

2-7 MW Power rating: -7.5
6-3 MW Power rating: -2.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNM -15.5
PM Implied
UNM -11.3
Blue Chip model
UNM -7.2
Edge
-8.3CSU
See details
◂ favors CSUfavors UNM ▸Market: UNM -15.5
UNM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UNM
UNM
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 CSU5 UNMModel: UNM -7.2

Betting information

Spread
UNM -15.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
CSU 19.0 – 34.5 UNM
Prediction markets
UNM 86% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

New Mexico defeated Colorado State 20–17 in a nail-biter. Colorado State covered by 12.5; Game went Under by 16.5. The market closed at New Mexico -15.5 and the Blue Chip model made it New Mexico -7.2 - a gap of 8.3 points toward Colorado State, of which 7.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Colorado State vs New Mexico?

At kickoff, conditions at University Stadium (NM) were Clear, 58°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Colorado State travels 389 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

New Mexico won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Colorado State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 16.5 points.

How do Colorado State and New Mexico compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor New Mexico (-2.4) over Colorado State (-7.5) by 5.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. New Mexico brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Colorado State and New Mexico?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

New Mexico won and Colorado State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Clear

58°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity28%
Wind4 mph SE
Gusts8 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Colorado State at New Mexico: aerial view of University Stadium (NM), wind from the SE at 3.8 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM MST
Venue
University Stadium (NM)
Capacity
39,224
Elevation
5,121 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Colorado StateAway New MexicoHome
This week389 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total4,180 miles8,239 miles
Body clock13:0013:00
Rest6 days14 days

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