Week 12
Jones AT&T Stadium

UCF9 @FINAL 48Texas Tech , Week 12, Nov 15, 2025

4-5 Big 12 Power rating: 6.2
9-1 Big 12 Power rating: 24.5

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TTU -24.5
PM Implied
TTU -16.9
Blue Chip model
TTU -21.9
Edge
-2.6UCF
See details
◂ favors UCFfavors TTU ▸Market: TTU -24.5
18.3 › TTU
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1 UCF1 TTU2 UCF2 TTU3 UCF3 TTUModel: TTU -21.9

Betting information

Spread
TTU -24.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
UCF 12.0 – 36.5 TTU
Prediction markets
TTU 94% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Texas Tech defeated UCF 48–9 in a dominant performance. Texas Tech covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 8.5. The market closed at Texas Tech -24.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas Tech -21.9, an edge of 2.6 points toward UCF.

What are the key factors for UCF vs Texas Tech?

Texas Tech

Dominant Run Defense

Texas Tech held UCF to a season-low 52 rushing yards, showcasing the nation's No. 1 run defense. This strength will be critical against West Virginia's rushing attack.

Explosive Offensive Depth

Reggie Virgil scored three touchdowns on his first two career carries, and Cameron Dickey added two rushing TDs. The Red Raiders' ability to generate big plays from multiple players makes them unpredictable.

Injury Concerns at Quarterback

Starter Behren Morton is playing through a leg injury and was replaced by Mitch Griffis in the second half. With backup Will Hammond out for the season, Morton's health is a key factor for the upcoming game.

Penalty Issues

Left tackle Howard Sampson committed a holding penalty that resulted in a safety and a taunting penalty that cost the team a potential touchdown before halftime. Discipline will be important against West Virginia.

Momentum and Confidence

Texas Tech has won all 10 games by at least 20 points, with an average margin of 33.8 points. This dominant form and veteran leadership provide strong momentum heading into the regular-season finale.

What were the weather conditions for UCF vs Texas Tech?

At kickoff, conditions at Jones AT&T Stadium were Clear, 74°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UCF travels 1,271 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

UCF arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Texas Tech won by 39 in a dominant performance.

Texas Tech covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 8.5 points.

How do UCF and Texas Tech compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas Tech (24.5) over UCF (6.2) by 18.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas Tech brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Texas Tech won and Texas Tech covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Clear

74°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity25%
Wind9 mph W
Gusts18 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for UCF at Texas Tech: aerial view of Jones AT&T Stadium, wind from the W at 8.7 mph, gusting to 18.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
Jones AT&T Stadium
Capacity
60,229
Elevation
3,228 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure UCFAway Texas TechHome
This week1,271 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total7,008 miles4,546 miles
Body clock15:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days