Week 12
BBVA Compass Stadium

Delaware23 @FINAL 26Sam Houston , Week 12, Nov 16, 2025

5-4 CUSA Power rating: -11.6
1-8 CUSA Power rating: -18.4

How did the line hold up?

Market line
DEL -11.5
PM Implied
DEL -8.0
Blue Chip model
DEL -4.0
Edge
+7.5SHSU
See details
◂ favors DELfavors SHSU ▸Market: DEL -11.5
DEL
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SHSU
no impact
SHSU
no impact
no impact
5 DEL5 SHSUModel: DEL -4.0

Betting information

Spread
DEL -11.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
DEL 34.0 – 22.5 SHSU
Prediction markets
DEL 79% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Sam Houston defeated Delaware 26–23 in a nail-biter. Sam Houston covered by 14.5; Game went Under by 7.5. The market closed at Delaware -11.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Delaware -4.0 - a gap of 7.5 points toward Sam Houston, of which 6.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Delaware 6.8 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Delaware vs Sam Houston?

Sam Houston

Ground Game Dominance

Landon Brown rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns, including a 62-yard run, providing the offensive spark needed to secure the win.

Defensive Stand in Final Minutes

The defense forced a missed field goal with 21 seconds left after a key sack by Dylan Frazier, preserving the 26-23 victory.

Special Teams Contribution

Christian Pavon kicked four field goals (33, 33, 48, 48 yards), accounting for 12 points and keeping the team competitive throughout the game.

Passing Game Struggles

Quarterback Landon Locke completed only 16 of 38 passes for 213 yards, indicating inconsistency that could be exploited by future opponents.

Improved Record and Momentum

The win improves Sam Houston to 2-8 overall and 1-5 in conference play, providing a much-needed boost after a difficult season.

What were the weather conditions for Delaware vs Sam Houston?

At kickoff, conditions at BBVA Compass Stadium were Clear, 66°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Delaware travels 1,304 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Delaware arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Sam Houston won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Sam Houston covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 7.5 points.

How do Delaware and Sam Houston compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Delaware (-11.6) over Sam Houston (-18.4) by 6.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Sam Houston faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Sam Houston brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Sam Houston won and Sam Houston covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 16, 2025 Game-time

Clear

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity85%
Wind8 mph S
Gusts13 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Delaware at Sam Houston: aerial view of BBVA Compass Stadium, wind from the S at 7.8 mph, gusting to 12.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CST
Venue
BBVA Compass Stadium
Capacity
20,656
Elevation
56 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure DelawareAway Sam HoustonHome
This week1,304 miles67 miles
Last weekHome game3,565 miles
Season total8,281 miles14,643 miles
Body clock19:0018:00
Rest8 days7 days