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Week 12 •
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Florida24 @FINAL 34Ole Miss

3-6 SEC Power rating: 14.8
9-1 SEC Power rating: 23.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MISS -10.5
PM Implied
MISS -9.1
Blue Chip model
MISS -11.1
Edge
+0.6MISS
See details
◂ favors FLAfavors MISS ▸Market: MISS -10.5
8.6 › MISS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MISS
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 FLA1 MISS2 FLA2 MISSModel: MISS -11.1

Betting information

Spread
MISS -10.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
FLA 21.5 – 32.0 MISS
Prediction markets
MISS 81% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ole Miss defeated Florida 34–24 in a double-digit victory. Florida covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Ole Miss -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ole Miss -11.1. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Florida vs Ole Miss?

Ole Miss

Kewan Lacy's Record-Breaking Performance

Lacy rushed for 224 yards and three touchdowns, breaking the school's single-season rushing touchdown record with 19. His go-ahead score on the first play of the fourth quarter and a 4-yard TD with 1:43 left sealed the win, showcasing his dominance and the offensive line's effectiveness.

Second-Half Defensive Shutout

Ole Miss held Florida scoreless in the second half, allowing only 103 offensive yards. The defense forced a key interception on a tipped ball and stopped Florida on fourth down late, demonstrating resilience and ability to clamp down when needed.

Red Zone Struggles and Efficiency

Despite the win, Ole Miss failed to score touchdowns on two red-zone drives in the second half, settling for field goals. This inconsistency could be a concern against tougher opponents, but the offense still amassed 538 total yards.

Coach Lane Kiffin's Future and Team Focus

Fans chanted 'We want Lane!' amid speculation about Kiffin leaving for another job, possibly Florida. Kiffin avoided questions about his future, emphasizing the team's 8-0 home record and playoff hopes. The distraction could affect team morale, but the Rebels remain focused on their goals.

Playoff Implications and Next Game

The win keeps Ole Miss (10-1) in the College Football Playoff hunt, potentially moving into the top five after Alabama's loss. After a bye week, they visit Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28, needing to maintain momentum to secure a playoff spot.

What were the weather conditions for Florida vs Ole Miss?

At kickoff, conditions at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium were Overcast, 66°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Florida travels 532 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Florida arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Ole Miss won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

Florida covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do Florida and Ole Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ole Miss (23.4) over Florida (14.8) by 8.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ole Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Florida and Ole Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Ole Miss won and Florida covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 16, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity89%
Wind10 mph SW
Gusts17 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Florida at Ole Miss: aerial view of Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, wind from the SW at 9.8 mph, gusting to 17.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CST
Venue
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Capacity
64,038
Elevation
472 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

FloridaAway Ole MissHome
This week532 miles0 miles
Last week1,180 milesHome game
Season total5,153 miles2,370 miles
Body clock19:0018:00
Rest7 days8 days

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