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Week 12 •
Pratt & Whitney Stadium

Air Force16 @FINAL 26UConn

3-6 MW Power rating: -4.8
7-3 Independent Power rating: -3.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
CONN -7.5
PM Implied
CONN -6.5
Blue Chip model
CONN -5.8
Edge
-1.7AF
See details
◂ favors AFfavors CONN ▸Market: CONN -7.5
CONN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CONN
no impact
CONN
no impact
no impact
2 AF2 CONN4 AF4 CONNModel: CONN -5.8

Betting information

Spread
CONN -7.5
Total
64.5
Odds implied score
AF 28.5 – 36.0 CONN
Prediction markets
CONN 74% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UConn defeated Air Force 26–16 in a double-digit victory. UConn covered by 2.5; Game went Under by 22.5. The market closed at UConn -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UConn -5.8, an edge of 1.7 points toward Air Force.

What are the key factors for Air Force vs UConn?

Air Force

Strong Ground Game but Not Enough

Air Force rushed for 291 yards, with Owen Allen contributing 123 yards, but the offense was limited to two rushing touchdowns and struggled to keep pace with UConn's scoring.

Defensive Struggles Against UConn's Offense

The Falcons allowed UConn to score on their first possession of each half and gave up 165 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Cam Edwards, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Late Rally Falls Short

Dylan Carson's second rushing touchdown with 2:30 left cut the deficit to 10 points, but Air Force could not complete the comeback, indicating a lack of offensive explosiveness when needed.

Record and Momentum Concerns

Falling to 3-7, Air Force faces an uphill battle to finish the season strong, and the loss may impact team morale and focus for their next game.

What were the weather conditions for Air Force vs UConn?

At kickoff, conditions at Pratt & Whitney Stadium were Partly cloudy, 41°F, wind chill 38°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Air Force travels 1,701 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

UConn won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

UConn covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 22.5 points.

How do Air Force and UConn compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UConn (-3.2) over Air Force (-4.8) by 1.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UConn brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Air Force and UConn?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UConn won and UConn covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

41°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind5 mph SW
Gusts9 mph
Wind chill38°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Air Force at UConn: aerial view of Pratt & Whitney Stadium, wind from the SW at 5.4 mph, gusting to 8.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EST
Venue
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
46 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Air ForceAway UConnHome
This week1,701 miles0 miles
Last week1,866 milesHome game
Season total8,636 miles4,699 miles
Body clock10:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days

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