26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 @ 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 @ 17 Final 34 @ @ @ @
Week 12 •
Allegiant StadiumIndoor

Utah State26 @FINAL 29UNLV

5-4 MW Power rating: -4.6
7-2 MW Power rating: -3.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNLV -4.5
PM Implied
UNLV -4.9
Blue Chip model
UNLV -3.7
Edge
-0.8USU
See details
◂ favors USUfavors UNLV ▸Market: UNLV -4.5
UNLV
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UNLV
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 USU1 UNLV2 USU2 UNLVModel: UNLV -3.7

Betting information

Spread
UNLV -4.5
Total
68.5
Odds implied score
USU 32.0 – 36.5 UNLV
Prediction markets
UNLV 68% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UNLV defeated Utah State 29–26 in a nail-biter. Utah State covered by 1.5; Game went Under by 13.5. The market closed at UNLV -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UNLV -3.7. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for Utah State vs UNLV?

Utah State

Offensive Efficiency in Clutch Moments

Utah State's offense showed resilience, with QB Bryson Barnes throwing for 256 yards and rushing for 124 yards, including a 58-yard TD run. However, they struggled to finish drives, settling for field goals and missing key extra points, which ultimately cost them in overtime.

Defensive Struggles in Second Half

The Aggies' defense allowed UNLV to mount multiple comebacks, including a 75-yard drive for a go-ahead TD in the third quarter and a game-tying field goal late in the fourth. They also gave up a 25-yard game-winning run in double overtime, highlighting issues with containment and late-game execution.

Special Teams Inconsistency

Utah State's kicking game was a liability, with Tanner Rinker missing one of two extra points and both kickers missing field goals in the first overtime. This inconsistency directly contributed to the loss, as made kicks could have secured a win in regulation or overtime.

Penalties and Discipline

The Aggies committed several costly penalties that extended UNLV drives or negated positive plays. This lack of discipline, especially in high-pressure situations, undermined their defensive efforts and gave the Rebels extra opportunities to stay in the game.

Resilience but Lack of Finishing Ability

Utah State showed fight by taking leads multiple times, including a 23-20 advantage with seven minutes left. However, they failed to close out the game, allowing UNLV to tie and then win in overtime. This pattern of not finishing strong could be a concern for upcoming games.

What were the weather conditions for Utah State vs UNLV?

This game was played indoors at Allegiant Stadium in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.

What happened in the game?

Utah State travels 431 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Utah State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

UNLV won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Utah State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 13.5 points.

How do Utah State and UNLV compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UNLV (-3.2) over Utah State (-4.6) by 1.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UNLV brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Utah State and UNLV?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UNLV won and Utah State covered the spread.

Conditions

Indoor, climate controlled

~72°F

Allegiant Stadium is a domed venue. Wind, precipitation and temperature are not factors in this game.

Wind map for Utah State at UNLV: aerial view of Allegiant Stadium

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
04:00 PM PST
Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Capacity
65,000
Elevation
2,192 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Utah StateAway UNLVHome
This week431 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,258 miles
Season total12,634 miles9,373 miles
Body clock17:0016:00
Rest7 days7 days

Other games this week