Week 12 •
Protective Stadium

North Texas53 @FINAL 24UAB , Week 12, Nov 15, 2025

8-1 American Power rating: 7.9
3-6 American Power rating: -10.0

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNT -17.5
PM Implied
UNT -13.0
Blue Chip model
UNT -15.8
Edge
+1.7UAB
See details
◂ favors UNTfavors UAB ▸Market: UNT -17.5
‹ 17.9 UNT
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1 UNT1 UAB2 UNT2 UAB3 UNT3 UABModel: UNT -15.8

Betting information

Spread
UNT -17.5
Total
68.5
Odds implied score
UNT 43.0 – 25.5 UAB
Prediction markets
UNT 89% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

North Texas defeated UAB 53–24 in a dominant performance. North Texas covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 8.5. The market closed at North Texas -17.5 and the Blue Chip model made it North Texas -15.8, an edge of 1.7 points toward UAB.

What are the key factors for North Texas vs UAB?

North Texas

Dominant rushing attack led by Hawkins

True freshman Caleb Hawkins set a program record with five rushing touchdowns, including four in the first half, and finished with 189 yards on 27 carries. This performance underscores North Texas's elite ground game, which is a key factor in their high-scoring offense.

Efficient passing game complements run

Drew Mestemaker completed 18 of 25 passes for 298 yards and two touchdowns, with Wyatt Young (8 catches, 148 yards, TD) and Cameron Dorner (3 catches, 73 yards, TD) as primary targets. The balanced attack makes the offense difficult to defend.

Top-ranked offense continues to excel

North Texas ranks second nationally in scoring (44.4 PPG) and fifth in total yards (487.8 YPG). Their 506-yard performance against UAB shows they can maintain elite production against conference opponents.

Defense forces turnovers and limits damage

The Mean Green defense intercepted UAB quarterback Jalen Kitna twice and held the Blazers to 24 points, despite allowing 163 rushing yards to Jevon Jackson. This defensive effort helped secure the blowout win.

Momentum from crucial conference win

Coming off a key win over Navy, North Texas improved to 9-1 (5-1 AAC) and remains in contention for the conference title. Their dominant performance against UAB builds confidence heading into the next game.

What were the weather conditions for North Texas vs UAB?

At kickoff, conditions at Protective Stadium were Clear, 69°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

North Texas travels 599 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

North Texas won by 29 in a dominant performance.

North Texas covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 8.5 points.

How do North Texas and UAB compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor North Texas (7.9) over UAB (-10.0) by 17.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UAB faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UAB brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

North Texas won and North Texas covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Clear

69°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity69%
Wind6 mph SSW
Gusts12 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for North Texas at UAB: aerial view of Protective Stadium, wind from the SSW at 5.8 mph, gusting to 12.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
01:00 PM CST
Venue
Protective Stadium
Capacity
47,100
Elevation
623 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure North TexasAway UABHome
This week599 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,141 miles
Season total7,058 miles6,177 miles
Body clock13:0013:00
Rest14 days7 days