College Football Week 1 — 2025

By Liam Browne · Last updated 2026-06-14

Week 1 of the 2025 season features 91 FBS games. Hawai'i leads all road trips at 2,968 miles. James Madison posts the week's top HFA at 3.3 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Hawai'i

2,968 miles · -3h body-clock shift

Hawai'i travels 2,968 miles to face Arizona, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.

#2 Stony Brook

2,475 miles · +3h body-clock shift

Stony Brook travels 2,475 miles to face San Diego State, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

#3 Nevada

2,201 miles · -3h body-clock shift

Nevada travels 2,201 miles to face Penn State, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.

#4 Georgia Southern

2,171 miles · +3h body-clock shift

Georgia Southern travels 2,171 miles to face Fresno State, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

#5 Boise State

2,156 miles · -2h body-clock shift

Boise State travels 2,156 miles to face South Florida, arriving with a -2h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Tarleton State @ Army

13°F, 4 mph wind, Partly Cloudy

Tarleton State @ Army: 13°F, 4 mph wind, Partly Cloudy — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

#2 Temple @ Massachusetts

13°F, 2 mph wind, Mist

Temple @ Massachusetts: 13°F, 2 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

#3 Ohio @ Rutgers

14°F, 5 mph wind, Mist

Ohio @ Rutgers: 14°F, 5 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 James Madison

HFA 3.3 pts · Bridgeforth Stadium · 24,877 capacity

James Madison carries a 3.3-point HFA edge at Bridgeforth Stadium (24,877 capacity) against Weber State.

#2 Louisville

HFA 3.2 pts · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 60,800 capacity

Louisville carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (60,800 capacity) against Eastern Kentucky.

#3 SMU

HFA 3.2 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity

SMU carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against East Texas A&M.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Texas Tech

Model gap: 54.2 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 20.6 · Away: -33.6

The model shows Texas Tech by 54.2 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

#2 Central Arkansas @ Missouri

Model gap: 46.9 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 16.1 · Away: -30.8

The model shows Missouri by 46.9 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

#3 Charleston Southern @ Vanderbilt

Model gap: 46.8 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 14.8 · Away: -32.0

The model shows Vanderbilt by 46.8 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 VMI @ Navy

Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: line unavailable

Model gives Navy a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Navy relative to the market. Directional signal only.

#2 Eastern Kentucky @ Louisville

Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: line unavailable

Model gives Louisville a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Louisville relative to the market. Directional signal only.

#3 Marshall @ Georgia

Model: 99% home · Market: 50% home · Gap: 49pp · Line: Georgia -38.5

Model gives Georgia a 99% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 50%. A 49-point gap — model favours Georgia relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 1 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome

Boise State 7 @ 34 South Florida Boise State -8.5 63.5 Upset, South Florida Covered, Under

Ohio 31 @ 34 Rutgers Rutgers -10.5 N/A Chalk, Ohio Covered

Lafayette 7 @ 26 Bowling Green N/A N/A –

Delaware State 17 @ 35 Delaware N/A N/A –

St. Francis (PA) 0 @ 29 UL Monroe N/A N/A –

Wyoming 10 @ 0 Akron Wyoming -9.5 50.5 Chalk, Wyoming Covered, Under

East Carolina 17 @ 24 NC State NC State -12.5 57 Chalk, East Carolina Covered, Under

Jacksonville State 10 @ 17 UCF UCF -17 56.5 Chalk, Jacksonville State Covered, Under

Elon 17 @ 45 Duke N/A N/A –

Central Arkansas 6 @ 61 Missouri N/A N/A –

UT Martin 7 @ 27 Oklahoma State N/A N/A –

Buffalo 10 @ 23 Minnesota Minnesota -18 45 Chalk, Buffalo Covered, Under

Stephen F. Austin 0 @ 27 Houston N/A N/A –

Alabama State 42 @ 52 UAB N/A N/A –

Nebraska 20 vs 17 Cincinnati Nebraska -7 50.5 Chalk, Cincinnati Covered, Under

Miami (OH) 0 @ 17 Wisconsin Wisconsin -17.5 41.5 Chalk, Miami (OH) Covered, Under

Stony Brook 0 vs 42 San Diego State N/A N/A –

Tarleton State 30 @ 27 Army N/A N/A –

Kennesaw State 9 @ 10 Wake Forest Wake Forest -17.5 52.5 Chalk, Kennesaw State Covered, Under

App State 34 vs 11 Charlotte App State -8.5 53.5 Chalk, App State Covered, Under

Western Michigan 6 @ 23 Michigan State Michigan State -17.5 49.5 Chalk, Western Michigan Covered, Under

Bethune-Cookman 9 @ 42 Florida International N/A N/A –

Wagner 7 @ 46 Kansas N/A N/A –

Western Illinois 3 @ 52 Illinois N/A N/A –

Auburn 38 @ 24 Baylor Auburn -2.5 56.5 Chalk, Auburn Covered, Over

Georgia Tech 27 @ 20 Colorado Georgia Tech -4.5 55.5 Chalk, Georgia Tech Covered, Under

UNLV 38 vs 21 Sam Houston UNLV -13.5 57.5 Chalk, UNLV Covered, Over

Central Michigan 16 @ 14 San José State N/A N/A –

Texas 7 @ 14 Ohio State Ohio State -3 50.5 Chalk, Ohio State Covered, Under

Ball State 0 @ 31 Purdue Purdue -16.5 50.5 Chalk, Purdue Covered, Under

Northwestern 3 vs 23 Tulane Tulane -7 46.5 Chalk, Tulane Covered, Under

Syracuse 26 vs 45 Tennessee Tennessee -11.5 55.5 Chalk, Tennessee Covered, Over

Florida Atlantic 7 @ 39 Maryland Maryland -17.5 57.5 Chalk, Maryland Covered, Under

Duquesne 9 @ 61 Pittsburgh N/A N/A –

VMI 7 @ 52 Navy N/A N/A –

Merrimack 17 @ 21 Kent State N/A N/A –

Mississippi State 34 @ 17 Southern Miss Mississippi State -14 58.5 Chalk, Mississippi State Covered, Under

Toledo 16 @ 24 Kentucky Kentucky -10 48.5 Chalk, Toledo Covered, Under

Fordham 10 @ 66 Boston College N/A N/A –

Robert Morris 3 vs 45 West Virginia N/A N/A –

Central Connecticut 13 @ 59 UConn N/A N/A –

Old Dominion 14 @ 27 Indiana Indiana -23.5 54 Chalk, Old Dominion Covered, Under

Eastern Kentucky 17 @ 51 Louisville N/A N/A –

South Dakota 7 @ 55 Iowa State Iowa State -15 47.5 Chalk, Iowa State Covered, Over

Holy Cross 17 @ 19 Northern Illinois N/A N/A –

Marshall 7 @ 45 Georgia Georgia -38.5 54.5 Chalk, Marshall Covered, Under

Bucknell 13 @ 49 Air Force N/A N/A –

Temple 42 @ 10 Massachusetts Temple -1.5 52.5 Chalk, Temple Covered, Under

Alabama 17 @ 31 Florida State Alabama -12.5 50.5 Upset, Florida State Covered, Under

Nevada 11 @ 46 Penn State Penn State -45.5 59.5 Chalk, Nevada Covered, Under

Montana State 13 @ 59 Oregon N/A N/A –

Maine 7 @ 28 Liberty N/A N/A –

Alabama A&M 7 @ 52 Arkansas N/A N/A –

Chattanooga 10 @ 45 Memphis N/A N/A –

Coastal Carolina 7 @ 48 Virginia Virginia -13 57.5 Chalk, Virginia Covered, Under

Illinois State 3 @ 35 Oklahoma N/A N/A –

Weber State 10 @ 45 James Madison N/A N/A –

UAlbany 7 @ 34 Iowa N/A N/A –

Nicholls 20 @ 38 Troy N/A N/A –

North Dakota 35 @ 38 Kansas State Kansas State -25.5 55.5 Chalk, North Dakota Covered, Over

Long Island University 0 @ 55 Florida N/A N/A –

Southeast Missouri State 24 @ 42 Arkansas State N/A N/A –

Austin Peay 34 @ 14 Middle Tennessee N/A N/A –

Charleston Southern 3 @ 45 Vanderbilt N/A N/A –

UTSA 24 @ 42 Texas A&M Texas A&M -21 57.5 Chalk, UTSA Covered, Over

Morgan State 21 @ 38 South Alabama N/A N/A –

North Alabama 6 @ 55 Western Kentucky N/A N/A –

Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7 @ 67 Texas Tech N/A N/A –

UTEP 16 @ 28 Utah State Utah State -3.5 58.5 Chalk, Utah State Covered, Under

Missouri State 13 @ 73 USC USC -32.5 52.5 Chalk, USC Covered, Over

SE Louisiana 0 @ 24 Louisiana Tech N/A N/A –

LSU 17 @ 10 Clemson Clemson -3 56.5 Upset, LSU Covered, Under

New Mexico 17 @ 34 Michigan Michigan -34.5 51.5 Chalk, New Mexico Covered, Under

Georgia State 7 @ 63 Ole Miss Ole Miss -37.5 61.5 Chalk, Ole Miss Covered, Over

Lamar 0 @ 51 North Texas N/A N/A –

Eastern Michigan 27 @ 52 Texas State Texas State -14.5 57.5 Chalk, Texas State Covered, Over

Rice 14 vs 12 Louisiana Louisiana -15 52.5 Upset, Rice Covered, Under

Abilene Christian 7 @ 35 Tulsa N/A N/A –

Portland State 0 @ 69 BYU BYU -43.5 60.5 Chalk, BYU Covered, Over

Bryant 3 @ 19 New Mexico State N/A N/A –

East Texas A&M 13 @ 42 SMU N/A N/A –

Georgia Southern 14 @ 42 Fresno State Fresno State -2 54.5 Chalk, Fresno State Covered, Over

Idaho 10 @ 13 Washington State N/A N/A –

Northern Arizona 19 @ 38 Arizona State Arizona State -28.5 52.5 Chalk, Northern Arizona Covered, Over

California 34 @ 15 Oregon State Oregon State -2.5 52.5 Upset, California Covered, Under

Hawai'i 6 @ 40 Arizona Arizona -13 52 Chalk, Arizona Covered, Under

Colorado State 21 vs 38 Washington Washington -18.5 52 Chalk, Colorado State Covered, Over

Utah 43 @ 10 UCLA Utah -4 50.5 Chalk, Utah Covered, Over

Virginia Tech 11 vs 24 South Carolina South Carolina -7 45.5 Chalk, South Carolina Covered, Under

Notre Dame 24 @ 27 Miami Notre Dame -1.5 54.5 Upset, Miami Covered, Under

TCU 48 @ 14 North Carolina TCU -2.5 59.5 Chalk, TCU Covered, Over

How We Ranked Week 1's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

WeatherAPI.com

Home Field Advantage

Blue Chip HFA ratings

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 1 2025?

Week 1 of the 2025 FBS season features 91 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 1 of the 2025 season features 91 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.