Week 12
Chapman Stadium

Oregon State14 @FINAL 31Tulsa , Week 12, Nov 15, 2025

2-8 Pac-12 Power rating: -5.9
2-7 American Power rating: -11.3

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TLSA -1.5
PM Implied
ORST -0.8
Blue Chip model
ORST -3.3
Edge
-4.8ORST
See details
◂ favors ORSTfavors TLSA ▸Market: TLSA -1.5
ORST
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TLSA
no impact
TLSA
no impact
no impact
2 ORST2 TLSA4 ORST4 TLSAModel: ORST -3.3

Betting information

Spread
TLSA -1.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
ORST 24.5 – 26.0 TLSA
Prediction markets
ORST 54% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Tulsa defeated Oregon State 31–14 to secure a comfortable win. Tulsa covered by 15.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Tulsa -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Oregon State -3.3 - a gap of 4.8 points toward Oregon State, of which 3.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Oregon State 5.4 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Oregon State vs Tulsa?

Oregon State

Late quarterback change sparks offense

True freshman Tristan Ti'a took over in the fourth quarter and threw for 141 yards and two touchdowns on 8-of-11 passing, providing a significant boost to a previously stagnant offense.

Rushing defense struggles

Oregon State allowed 227 rushing yards to Tulsa, including 166 yards from Dominic Richardson, indicating a vulnerability that opponents can exploit on the ground.

Receivers show big-play potential

David Wells Jr. and Trent Walker combined for 178 receiving yards and two touchdowns, demonstrating that the passing game can be effective when given opportunities.

Overall offensive inconsistency

Despite the late surge, the Beavers managed only 14 points and were held scoreless for three quarters, highlighting ongoing issues with offensive rhythm and execution.

What were the weather conditions for Oregon State vs Tulsa?

At kickoff, conditions at Chapman Stadium were Clear, 63°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Oregon State travels 1,546 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

Oregon State arrives with a 2-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Tulsa won by 17 to secure a comfortable win.

Tulsa covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Oregon State and Tulsa compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Oregon State (-5.9) over Tulsa (-11.3) by 5.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Tulsa faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Tulsa brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Tulsa won and Tulsa covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Clear

63°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity90%
Wind9 mph WSW
Gusts17 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Oregon State at Tulsa: aerial view of Chapman Stadium, wind from the WSW at 8.7 mph, gusting to 17.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM CST
Venue
Chapman Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
804 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Oregon StateAway TulsaHome
This week1,546 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game2,303 miles
Season total8,846 miles6,544 miles
Body clock10:0012:00
Rest6 days7 days