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Week 12 •
Hornet Stadium

Idaho20 @FINAL 23Sacramento State

0-0 Big Sky Power rating: -17.5
6-4 Big Sky Power rating: -18.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SAC -7.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
SAC -2.3
Edge
-4.8IDHO
See details
◂ favors IDHOfavors SAC ▸Market: SAC -7.0
IDHO
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SAC
no impact
no impact
no impact
SAC
2 IDHO2 SAC4 IDHO4 SACModel: SAC -2.3

Betting information

Spread
SAC -7.0
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
IDHO 26.3 – 33.3 SAC

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Sacramento State defeated Idaho 23–20 in a nail-biter. Idaho covered by 4.0; Game went Under by 16.5. The market closed at Sacramento State -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Sacramento State -2.3 - a gap of 4.8 points toward Idaho, of which 3.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Idaho vs Sacramento State?

At kickoff, conditions at Hornet Stadium were Moderate rain, 55°F with winds of 11 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.19 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Idaho travels 607 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Sacramento State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Idaho covered the spread.

The total went Under by 16.5 points.

How do Idaho and Sacramento State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Idaho (-17.5) over Sacramento State (-18.0) by 0.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Sacramento State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Sacramento State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Idaho and Sacramento State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Sacramento State won and Idaho covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 16, 2025 Game-time

Moderate rain

55°F

Rain100%
Precip0.19"
Humidity97%
Wind11 mph SSW
Gusts15 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Idaho at Sacramento State: aerial view of Hornet Stadium, wind from the SSW at 10.5 mph, gusting to 15 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM PST
Venue
Hornet Stadium
Capacity
21,195
Elevation
49 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

IdahoAway Sacramento StateHome
This week607 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week978 miles
Season total2,011 miles6,231 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
Rest7 days8 days

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