Week 12 • Nov 15, 2025, 11:45 AM CST

Tiger Stadium (LA)

Arkansas22 @FINAL 23LSU , Week 12, Nov 15, 2025

2-7 SEC Power rating: 11.3

5-4 SEC Power rating: 15.2

By Liam Browne · Last updated August 22, 2026

How did the line hold up?

Market line: LSU -4.0
PM Implied: LSU -3.4
Blue Chip model: LSU -5.9
Edge: +1.9LSU

See details

◂ favors ARKfavors LSU ▸Market: LSU -4.0

Power ratings 3.9 › LSU

Arkansas LSU The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team

Home field LSU

Rest ARK

Travel no impact

Elevation no impact

Weather ARK

1 ARK1 LSU2 ARK2 LSU3 ARK3 LSUModel: LSU -5.9

How the Blue Chip model builds its line for Arkansas at LSU. Points are home-oriented: a positive number favors LSU.
Input	Points	Favors	Plausible range	Note
Power ratings	+3.9	LSU	fixed	-
Home field	+3.0	LSU	+2.2 to +3.7	-
Rest	-0.8	ARK	-1.0 to -0.5	Away team off a bye.
Travel	0.0	no impact	fixed	-
Elevation	0.0	no impact	fixed	-
Weather	-0.3	ARK	-0.5 to 0.0	Harsh conditions - compresses toward the underdog.
Blue Chip line	+5.9	LSU	-	-
Market line	+4.0	LSU	-	-
Difference	-1.9	ARK	-	Market minus model

Betting information

Spread: LSU -4.0
Total: 58.5
Odds implied score: ARK 27.3 – 31.3 LSU
Prediction markets: LSU 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

LSU defeated Arkansas 23–22 in a nail-biter. Arkansas covered by 3.0; Game went Under by 13.5. The market closed at LSU -4.0 and the Blue Chip model made it LSU -5.9, an edge of 1.9 points toward LSU.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas vs LSU?

At kickoff, conditions at Tiger Stadium (LA) were Cloudy, 73°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas travels 427 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

LSU won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Arkansas covered the spread.

The total went Under by 13.5 points.

How do Arkansas and LSU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor LSU (15.2) over Arkansas (11.3) by 3.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. LSU brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Model & Methodology

LSU won and Arkansas covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

73°F

Rain0%

Precip0.00"

Humidity59%

Wind10 mph SW

Gusts14 mph

Snow chance0%

Wind map for Arkansas at LSU: aerial view of Tiger Stadium (LA), wind from the SW at 10.1 mph, gusting to 13.9 mph

Quick facts

Week: Week 12
Kickoff (local): 11:45 AM CST
Venue: Tiger Stadium (LA)
Capacity: 102,321
Elevation: 56 ft
Surface: Grass

Travel and rest

Measure	ArkansasAway	LSUHome
This week	427 miles	0 miles
Last week	Bye week	575 miles
Season total	2,641 miles	3,228 miles
Body clock	11:45	11:45
Rest	14 days	6 days

How did the line hold up?

Betting information

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas vs LSU?

What happened in the game?

How do Arkansas and LSU compare on power ratings?

Where can I find more data on Arkansas and LSU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Conditions

Quick facts

Travel and rest

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