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College Football Week 11 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 11 of the 2025 season features 52 FBS games. San Diego State leads all road trips at 2,613 miles. Louisville posts the week's top HFA at 3.2 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 San Diego State
2,613 miles · +2h body-clock shift · away +1d rest
San Diego State travels 2,613 miles to face Hawai'i, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.
#2 Stanford
2,376 miles · -3h body-clock shift · home +1d rest
Stanford travels 2,376 miles to face North Carolina, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#3 California
1,978 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
California travels 1,978 miles to face Louisville, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#4 Sam Houston
1,783 miles · +2h body-clock shift · equal rest
Sam Houston travels 1,783 miles to face Oregon State, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.
#5 Northwestern
1,749 miles · +2h body-clock shift · away +7d rest
Northwestern travels 1,749 miles to face USC, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Massachusetts @ Akron
4°F, 6 mph wind, Freezing fog
Massachusetts @ Akron: 4°F, 6 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Miami (OH) @ Ohio
5°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog
Miami (OH) @ Ohio: 5°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 Georgia Southern @ App State
8°F, 10 mph wind, Clear
Georgia Southern @ App State: 8°F, 10 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 Louisville
HFA 3.2 pts · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 60,800 capacity
Louisville carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (60,800 capacity) against California.
#2 Oregon State
HFA 3.2 pts · Reser Stadium · 35,548 capacity
Oregon State carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at Reser Stadium (35,548 capacity) against Sam Houston.
#3 New Mexico State
HFA 3.1 pts · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 28,853 capacity
New Mexico State carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Aggie Memorial Stadium (28,853 capacity) against Kennesaw State.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 The Citadel @ Ole Miss
Model gap: 51.0 pts · Line: line unavailable · Home power: 23.4 · Away: -27.6
The model shows Ole Miss by 51.0 model points; market line is line unavailable. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 Ohio State @ Purdue
Model gap: 30.3 pts · Line: Ohio State -29.5 · Home power: 0.4 · Away: 30.7
The model shows Ohio State by 30.3 model points; market line is Ohio State -29.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Charlotte @ East Carolina
Model gap: 27.9 pts · Line: East Carolina -28.5 · Home power: 7.8 · Away: -20.1
The model shows East Carolina by 27.9 model points; market line is East Carolina -28.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan
Model: 26% home · Market: 57% home · Gap: 31pp · Line: Eastern Michigan -2.5
Model gives Eastern Michigan a 26% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 57%. A 31-point gap — model favours Bowling Green relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#2 Nebraska @ UCLA
Model: 25% home · Market: 51% home · Gap: 26pp · Line: UCLA -2.5
Model gives UCLA a 25% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 51%. A 26-point gap — model favours Nebraska relative to the market. Directional signal only.
#3 Colorado @ West Virginia
Model: 44% home · Market: 68% home · Gap: 24pp · Line: West Virginia -9.5
Model gives West Virginia a 44% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 68%. A 24-point gap — model favours Colorado relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 11 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
Massachusetts 10 @ 44 Akron Akron -11.5 48.5 Chalk, Akron Covered, Over
Miami (OH) 20 @ 24 Ohio Ohio -3.5 50.5 Chalk, Ohio Covered, Under
Kent State 13 vs 17 Ball State Ball State -2.5 46.5 Chalk, Ball State Covered, Under
Northern Illinois 3 @ 42 Toledo Toledo -14.5 42.5 Chalk, Toledo Covered, Over
Georgia Southern 25 @ 23 App State App State -5.5 62.5 Upset, Georgia Southern Covered, Under
UTSA 23 @ 55 South Florida South Florida -13.5 60.5 Chalk, South Florida Covered, Over
Houston 30 @ 27 UCF UCF -1.5 47.5 Upset, Houston Covered, Over
Northwestern 17 @ 38 USC USC -14.5 52.5 Chalk, USC Covered, Over
Tulane 38 @ 32 Memphis Memphis -5.5 56.5 Upset, Tulane Covered, Over
Colorado 22 vs 29 West Virginia West Virginia -9.5 55.5 Chalk, Colorado Covered, Under
SMU 45 @ 13 Boston College SMU -11.5 54.5 Chalk, SMU Covered, Over
Indiana 27 @ 24 Penn State Indiana -19.5 49.5 Chalk, Penn State Covered, Over
Georgia 41 @ 21 Mississippi State Georgia -7.5 57.5 Chalk, Georgia Covered, Over
James Madison 35 @ 23 Marshall James Madison -12.5 56.5 Chalk, Marshall Covered, Over
BYU 7 @ 29 Texas Tech Texas Tech -10.5 53.5 Chalk, Texas Tech Covered, Under
Southern Miss 27 @ 21 Arkansas State Southern Miss -5.5 57.5 Chalk, Southern Miss Covered, Under
Temple 13 @ 14 Army Army -6.5 47.5 Chalk, Temple Covered, Under
Missouri State 21 @ 17 Liberty Liberty -7.5 59.5 Upset, Missouri State Covered, Under
Ohio State 34 @ 10 Purdue Ohio State -29.5 48.5 Chalk, Purdue Covered, Under
Bowling Green 21 @ 27 Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan -2.5 51.5 Chalk, Eastern Michigan Covered, Under
The Citadel 0 @ 49 Ole Miss N/A N/A –
UAB 17 @ 24 Rice Rice -2.5 53.5 Chalk, Rice Covered, Under
Maryland 20 @ 35 Rutgers Maryland -1.5 58.5 Upset, Rutgers Covered, Under
Tulsa 21 @ 40 Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic -4.5 65.5 Chalk, Florida Atlantic Covered, Under
Charlotte 22 @ 48 East Carolina East Carolina -28.5 50.5 Chalk, Charlotte Covered, Over
Louisiana Tech 24 @ 25 Delaware N/A N/A –
Jacksonville State 30 @ 27 UTEP UTEP -1.5 54.5 Upset, Jacksonville State Covered, Over
Florida International 56 @ 30 Middle Tennessee N/A N/A –
Iowa State 20 @ 17 TCU TCU -6.5 57.5 Upset, Iowa State Covered, Under
Syracuse 10 @ 38 Miami Miami -23.5 48.5 Chalk, Miami Covered, Under
Duke 34 @ 37 UConn Duke -8.5 50.5 Upset, UConn Covered, Over
Oregon 18 @ 16 Iowa Oregon -5.5 43.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Under
Kansas 20 @ 24 Arizona Arizona -4.5 64.5 Chalk, Kansas Covered, Under
Texas A&M 38 @ 17 Missouri Texas A&M -7.5 54.5 Chalk, Texas A&M Covered, Over
Auburn 38 @ 45 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -7.5 49.5 Chalk, Auburn Covered, Over
Georgia State 27 @ 40 Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina -7.5 55.5 Chalk, Coastal Carolina Covered, Over
Kennesaw State 24 @ 21 New Mexico State Kennesaw State -8.5 54.5 Chalk, New Mexico State Covered, Under
Stanford 15 @ 20 North Carolina North Carolina -9.5 41.5 Chalk, Stanford Covered, Under
Washington 10 @ 13 Wisconsin Washington -11.5 45.5 Upset, Wisconsin Covered, Under
Texas State 39 vs 42 Louisiana Texas State -1.5 64.5 Upset, Louisiana Covered, Over
Air Force 26 @ 16 San José State San José State -4.5 67.5 Upset, Air Force Covered, Under
Wake Forest 16 @ 9 Virginia Virginia -8.5 48.5 Upset, Wake Forest Covered, Under
California 29 @ 26 Louisville Louisville -20.5 50.5 Upset, California Covered, Over
Florida State 10 @ 24 Clemson Clemson -2.5 56.5 Chalk, Clemson Covered, Under
Florida 7 @ 38 Kentucky Florida -3.5 45.5 Upset, Kentucky Covered, Under
LSU 9 @ 20 Alabama Alabama -11.5 50.5 Chalk, LSU Covered, Under
Navy 10 @ 49 Notre Dame Notre Dame -25.5 52.5 Chalk, Notre Dame Covered, Over
Nevada 14 @ 51 Utah State Utah State -10.5 53.5 Chalk, Utah State Covered, Over
Nebraska 28 @ 21 UCLA UCLA -2.5 43.5 Upset, Nebraska Covered, Over
UNLV 42 vs 10 Colorado State UNLV -5.5 61.5 Chalk, UNLV Covered, Under
Sam Houston 21 @ 17 Oregon State Oregon State -19.5 52.5 Upset, Sam Houston Covered, Under
San Diego State 6 vs 38 Hawai'i San Diego State -6.5 50.5 Upset, Hawai'i Covered, Under

How We Ranked Week 11's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 11 2025?

Week 11 of the 2025 FBS season features 52 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 11 of the 2025 season features 52 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.