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Week 12 •
Snapdragon Stadium

Boise State7 @FINAL 17San Diego State

6-3 MW Power rating: 8.1
7-2 MW Power rating: 3.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SDSU -1.5
PM Implied
SDSU -1.0
Blue Chip model
BOIS -2.1
Edge
-3.6BOIS
See details
◂ favors BOISfavors SDSU ▸Market: SDSU -1.5
‹ 4.4 BOIS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SDSU
BOIS
SDSU
no impact
no impact
2 BOIS2 SDSU4 BOIS4 SDSUModel: BOIS -2.1

Betting information

Spread
SDSU -1.5
Total
41.5
Odds implied score
BOIS 20.0 – 21.5 SDSU
Prediction markets
SDSU 55% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

San Diego State defeated Boise State 17–7 in a double-digit victory. San Diego State covered by 8.5; Game went Under by 17.5. The market closed at San Diego State -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Boise State -2.1, an edge of 3.6 points toward Boise State. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Boise State 4.4 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Boise State vs San Diego State?

At kickoff, conditions at Snapdragon Stadium were Moderate rain, 61°F with winds of 7 mph. A 100% chance of rain with around 0.15 inches expected points to a genuinely wet field. Ball security and the kicking game are the exposures. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Boise State travels 748 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Boise State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

San Diego State won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

San Diego State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 17.5 points.

How do Boise State and San Diego State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (8.1) over San Diego State (3.7) by 4.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, San Diego State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. San Diego State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Boise State and San Diego State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

San Diego State won and San Diego State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 16, 2025 Game-time

Moderate rain

61°F

Rain100%
Precip0.15"
Humidity91%
Wind7 mph S
Gusts10 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Boise State at San Diego State: aerial view of Snapdragon Stadium, wind from the S at 6.9 mph, gusting to 10.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM PST
Venue
Snapdragon Stadium
Capacity
35,000
Elevation
89 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

Boise StateAway San Diego StateHome
This week748 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week5,226 miles
Season total10,122 miles12,108 miles
Body clock20:3019:30
Rest15 days7 days

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