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Week 12 •
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Middle Tennessee26 @FINAL 42Western Kentucky

1-8 CUSA Power rating: -16.1
7-2 CUSA Power rating: -9.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
WKU -13.5
PM Implied
WKU -9.9
Blue Chip model
WKU -9.1
Edge
-4.4MTSU
See details
◂ favors MTSUfavors WKU ▸Market: WKU -13.5
6.2 › WKU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
WKU
WKU
no impact
no impact
MTSU
2 MTSU2 WKU4 MTSU4 WKUModel: WKU -9.1

Betting information

Spread
WKU -13.5
Total
51.5
Odds implied score
MTSU 19.0 – 32.5 WKU
Prediction markets
WKU 82% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Western Kentucky defeated Middle Tennessee 42–26 in a double-digit victory. Western Kentucky covered by 2.5; Game went Over by 16.5. The market closed at Western Kentucky -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Western Kentucky -9.1 - a gap of 4.4 points toward Middle Tennessee, of which 2.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky?

At kickoff, conditions at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium were Cloudy, 64°F with winds of 17 mph. Wind of 17 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 28 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Middle Tennessee travels 78 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Western Kentucky won by 16 in a double-digit victory.

Western Kentucky covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 16.5 points.

How do Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Western Kentucky (-9.9) over Middle Tennessee (-16.1) by 6.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Western Kentucky brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Western Kentucky won and Western Kentucky covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

64°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity84%
Wind17 mph SW
Gusts28 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky: aerial view of Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, wind from the SW at 16.8 mph, gusting to 28.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Capacity
19,250
Elevation
495 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Middle TennesseeAway Western KentuckyHome
This week78 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total6,405 miles3,621 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days14 days

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