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Week 12 •
Spartan Stadium

Penn State28 @FINAL 10Michigan State

3-6 Big Ten Power rating: 17.0
3-6 Big Ten Power rating: 4.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
PSU -7.0
PM Implied
PSU -6.0
Blue Chip model
PSU -9.9
Edge
-2.9PSU
See details
◂ favors PSUfavors MSU ▸Market: PSU -7.0
‹ 12.3 PSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSU
MSU
no impact
no impact
MSU
1 PSU1 MSU2 PSU2 MSU3 PSU3 MSUModel: PSU -9.9

Betting information

Spread
PSU -7.0
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
PSU 27.8 – 20.8 MSU
Prediction markets
PSU 73% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Penn State defeated Michigan State 28–10 to secure a comfortable win. Penn State covered by 11.0; Game went Under by 10.5. The market closed at Penn State -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Penn State -9.9, an edge of 2.9 points toward Penn State.

What were the weather conditions for Penn State vs Michigan State?

At kickoff, conditions at Spartan Stadium were Overcast, 50°F, wind chill 45°F with winds of 15 mph. Gusts reaching 24 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Penn State travels 367 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Penn State won by 18 to secure a comfortable win.

Penn State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 10.5 points.

How do Penn State and Michigan State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Penn State (17.0) over Michigan State (4.7) by 12.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Michigan State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Michigan State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Penn State and Michigan State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Penn State won and Penn State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

50°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity91%
Wind15 mph WNW
Gusts24 mph
Wind chill45°F
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Penn State at Michigan State: aerial view of Spartan Stadium, wind from the WNW at 14.5 mph, gusting to 23.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EST
Venue
Spartan Stadium
Capacity
75,005
Elevation
866 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Penn StateAway Michigan StateHome
This week367 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total6,837 miles6,582 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days14 days

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