14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 12 • November 15, 2025, 08:30 PM UTC
Penn State @ Michigan State
3-6
Big Ten
Power Rank: 17.0
28 FINAL 10
3-6
Big Ten
Power Rank: 4.7
Penn State covered by 11.5 | Game went Under by 11.5

By · Last updated

Penn State defeated Michigan State 28–10 to secure a comfortable win.

Penn State @ Michigan State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 12
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:30 PM EST
Stadium: Spartan Stadium
Capacity: 75,005
Elevation: 866 ft
HFA Rating: 2.1
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Penn State -6.5
Total (O/U) 49.5
Expected Score PSU 28.0 - 21.5 MSU
Power Rank Implied Line Penn State +12.3
Prediction Markets Penn State 73% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Partly Cloudy

Partly Cloudy

20.9°F

Wind Chill: 9.1°F
Wind: 11.4 mph NW
Gusts: 18.8 mph
Precipitation: 0.02"
Humidity: 88%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Penn State (Away)

This Week: 367.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 7195.5 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:30
Rest Days: 7

Michigan State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 6738.3 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:30
Rest Days: 14

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Penn State -6.5
Total Points 49.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Penn State 17.0
Michigan State 4.7
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 367 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Michigan State +7
HFA: Spartan Stadium
Capacity 75,005
Elevation 866 ft
Weather: Partly Cloudy
Temperature 20.9°F
Wind Speed 11.4 mph
Your Line Michigan State -12.3
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Penn State vs Michigan State?

Penn State: Key Factors

Michigan State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Penn State travels 367 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Penn State won by 18 to secure a comfortable win.

Penn State covered the spread, covering by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Spartan Stadium?

At 20.9°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 64%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Penn State and Michigan State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Penn State (17.0) over Michigan State (4.7) by 12.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Michigan State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Michigan State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Penn State and Michigan State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Penn State won and Penn State covered the spread.