College Football Week 14 — 2025

By Liam Browne · Last updated 2026-06-14

Week 14 of the 2025 season features 67 FBS games. Wyoming leads all road trips at 3,325 miles. Louisville posts the week's top HFA at 3.2 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Wyoming

3,325 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest

Wyoming travels 3,325 miles to face Hawai'i, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

#2 Notre Dame

1,927 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest

Notre Dame travels 1,927 miles to face Stanford, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

#3 UCF

1,903 miles · +2h body-clock shift · equal rest

UCF travels 1,903 miles to face BYU, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.

#4 UTEP

1,803 miles · -2h body-clock shift · equal rest

UTEP travels 1,803 miles to face Delaware, arriving with a -2h body-clock shift.

#5 Army

1,603 miles · +1h body-clock shift · equal rest

Army travels 1,603 miles to face UTSA, arriving with a +1h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 Bowling Green @ Massachusetts

9°F, 2 mph wind, Mist

Bowling Green @ Massachusetts: 9°F, 2 mph wind, Mist — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

#2 Wisconsin @ Minnesota

10°F, 4 mph wind, Clear

Wisconsin @ Minnesota: 10°F, 4 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

#3 Virginia Tech @ Virginia

13°F, 5 mph wind, Clear

Virginia Tech @ Virginia: 13°F, 5 mph wind, Clear — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 Louisville

HFA 3.2 pts · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 60,800 capacity

Louisville carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (60,800 capacity) against Kentucky.

#2 Kansas State

HFA 3.1 pts · Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 50,000 capacity

Kansas State carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Bill Snyder Family Stadium (50,000 capacity) against Colorado.

#3 New Mexico State

HFA 3.1 pts · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 28,853 capacity

New Mexico State carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Aggie Memorial Stadium (28,853 capacity) against Middle Tennessee.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Indiana @ Purdue

Model gap: 32.3 pts · Line: Indiana -28.5 · Home power: -0.1 · Away: 32.2

The model shows Indiana by 32.3 model points; market line is Indiana -28.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

#2 Notre Dame @ Stanford

Model gap: 29.1 pts · Line: Notre Dame -32.5 · Home power: -0.0 · Away: 29.1

The model shows Notre Dame by 29.1 model points; market line is Notre Dame -32.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

#3 Iowa State @ Oklahoma State

Model gap: 26.4 pts · Line: Iowa State -14.5 · Home power: -13.2 · Away: 13.2

The model shows Iowa State by 26.4 model points; market line is Iowa State -14.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

Biggest Model vs. Market Divergences This Week

Games where Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability diverges most from the Kalshi prediction market. A large gap suggests the market may be mispricing the matchup — directional signal only, not a betting recommendation.

#1 Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State

Model: 18% home · Market: 57% home · Gap: 39pp · Line: Louisiana Tech -2.5

Model gives Missouri State a 18% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 57%. A 39-point gap — model favours Louisiana Tech relative to the market. Directional signal only.

#2 Boise State @ Utah State

Model: 12% home · Market: 47% home · Gap: 35pp · Line: Boise State -3.5

Model gives Utah State a 12% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 47%. A 35-point gap — model favours Boise State relative to the market. Directional signal only.

#3 UAB @ Tulsa

Model: 40% home · Market: 75% home · Gap: 35pp · Line: UAB -9.5

Model gives Tulsa a 40% win probability; Kalshi market has them at 75%. A 35-point gap — model favours UAB relative to the market. Directional signal only.

All Week 14 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome

Bowling Green 45 @ 14 Massachusetts Bowling Green -15.5 44.5 Chalk, Bowling Green Covered, Over

Western Michigan 31 @ 21 Eastern Michigan Western Michigan -7.5 48.5 Chalk, Western Michigan Covered, Over

Navy 28 @ 17 Memphis Memphis -5.5 59.5 Upset, Navy Covered, Under

Ohio 31 @ 26 Buffalo Ohio -8.5 44.5 Chalk, Buffalo Covered, Over

Iowa 40 @ 16 Nebraska Iowa -8.5 38.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Over

Ole Miss 38 @ 19 Mississippi State Mississippi State -4.5 62.5 Upset, Ole Miss Covered, Under

Kent State 35 @ 31 Northern Illinois Northern Illinois -4.5 44.5 Upset, Kent State Covered, Over

Utah 31 @ 21 Kansas Utah -12.5 59.5 Chalk, Kansas Covered, Under

Air Force 42 vs 21 Colorado State Air Force -1.5 44.5 Chalk, Air Force Covered, Over

Temple 25 @ 52 North Texas North Texas -20.5 65.5 Chalk, North Texas Covered, Over

Georgia 16 vs 9 Georgia Tech Georgia -14.5 53.5 Chalk, Georgia Tech Covered, Under

San Diego State 17 vs 23 New Mexico San Diego State -1.5 41.5 Upset, New Mexico Covered, Under

Boise State 25 @ 24 Utah State Boise State -3.5 55.5 Chalk, Utah State Covered, Under

Texas A&M 17 @ 27 Texas Texas A&M -2.5 51.5 Upset, Texas Covered, Under

Indiana 56 @ 3 Purdue Indiana -28.5 54.5 Chalk, Indiana Covered, Over

Arizona 23 @ 7 Arizona State Arizona State -1.5 48.5 Upset, Arizona Covered, Under

Toledo 21 @ 3 Central Michigan Toledo -10.5 44.5 Chalk, Toledo Covered, Under

East Carolina 42 @ 3 Florida Atlantic East Carolina -9.5 68.5 Chalk, East Carolina Covered, Under

Miami 38 @ 7 Pittsburgh Miami -6.5 60.5 Chalk, Miami Covered, Under

Houston 31 @ 24 Baylor Baylor -2.5 61.5 Upset, Houston Covered, Under

Colorado 14 @ 24 Kansas State Kansas State -17.5 51.5 Chalk, Colorado Covered, Under

Iowa State 20 @ 13 Oklahoma State Iowa State -14.5 47.5 Chalk, Oklahoma State Covered, Under

Ohio State 27 @ 9 Michigan Ohio State -9.5 44.5 Chalk, Ohio State Covered, Under

Kentucky 0 @ 41 Louisville Louisville -3.5 47.5 Chalk, Louisville Covered, Under

Clemson 28 vs 14 South Carolina South Carolina -2.5 46.5 Upset, Clemson Covered, Under

Texas Tech 49 vs 0 West Virginia Texas Tech -24.5 53.5 Chalk, Texas Tech Covered, Under

Ball State 24 @ 45 Miami (OH) Miami (OH) -17.5 41.5 Chalk, Miami (OH) Covered, Over

Florida International 56 vs 16 Sam Houston Florida International -10.5 51.5 Chalk, Florida International Covered, Over

UTEP 31 @ 61 Delaware Delaware -4.5 54.5 Chalk, Delaware Covered, Over

UCF 21 @ 41 BYU BYU -17.5 47.5 Chalk, BYU Covered, Over

Georgia Southern 24 @ 19 Marshall Marshall -9.5 63.5 Upset, Georgia Southern Covered, Under

Louisiana Tech 42 @ 30 Missouri State Louisiana Tech -2.5 51.5 Chalk, Louisiana Tech Covered, Over

Georgia State 10 vs 27 Old Dominion Old Dominion -29.5 68.5 Chalk, Georgia State Covered, Under

Western Kentucky 34 @ 37 Jacksonville State Western Kentucky -2.5 54.5 Upset, Jacksonville State Covered, Over

Arkansas State 30 @ 29 App State App State -2.5 55.5 Upset, Arkansas State Covered, Over

Middle Tennessee 31 @ 24 New Mexico State Middle Tennessee -4.5 53.5 Chalk, Middle Tennessee Covered, Over

UAB 31 @ 24 Tulsa UAB -9.5 58.5 Chalk, Tulsa Covered, Under

South Alabama 26 @ 49 Texas State Texas State -9.5 62.5 Chalk, Texas State Covered, Over

Boston College 34 @ 12 Syracuse Boston College -3.5 52.5 Chalk, Boston College Covered, Under

UL Monroe 27 vs 30 Louisiana Louisiana -8.5 48.5 Chalk, UL Monroe Covered, Over

Vanderbilt 45 @ 24 Tennessee Tennessee -2.5 65.5 Upset, Vanderbilt Covered, Over

Wisconsin 7 @ 17 Minnesota Minnesota -1.5 37.5 Chalk, Minnesota Covered, Under

Wake Forest 32 @ 49 Duke Duke -1.5 54.5 Chalk, Duke Covered, Over

Missouri 31 @ 17 Arkansas Missouri -2.5 58.5 Chalk, Missouri Covered, Under

Penn State 40 @ 36 Rutgers Penn State -13.5 58.5 Chalk, Rutgers Covered, Over

Troy 28 @ 18 Southern Miss Troy -6.5 51.5 Chalk, Troy Covered, Under

Oregon 26 vs 14 Washington Oregon -6.5 51.5 Chalk, Oregon Covered, Under

LSU 13 @ 17 Oklahoma LSU -10.5 58.5 Upset, Oklahoma Covered, Under

Army 27 @ 24 UTSA Army -7.5 52.5 Chalk, UTSA Covered, Under

Kennesaw State 48 @ 42 Liberty Liberty -2.5 54.5 Upset, Kennesaw State Covered, Over

Cincinnati 23 @ 45 TCU TCU -4.5 57.5 Chalk, TCU Covered, Over

James Madison 59 @ 10 Coastal Carolina James Madison -22.5 54.5 Chalk, James Madison Covered, Over

Florida State 21 @ 40 Florida Florida -1.5 51.5 Chalk, Florida Covered, Over

Oregon State 8 @ 32 Washington State Washington State -13.5 42.5 Chalk, Washington State Covered, Under

Maryland 28 vs 38 Michigan State Michigan State -3.5 49.5 Chalk, Michigan State Covered, Over

Virginia Tech 7 @ 27 Virginia Virginia -9.5 53.5 Chalk, Virginia Covered, Under

Rice 3 @ 52 South Florida South Florida -27.5 59.5 Chalk, South Florida Covered, Under

Alabama 27 @ 20 Auburn Alabama -6.5 47.5 Chalk, Alabama Covered, Under

Charlotte 0 vs 27 Tulane Tulane -30.5 52.5 Chalk, Charlotte Covered, Under

North Carolina 19 @ 42 NC State NC State -7.5 48.5 Chalk, NC State Covered, Over

UCLA 10 @ 29 USC USC -21.5 59.5 Chalk, UCLA Covered, Under

Northwestern 13 @ 20 Illinois Illinois -7.5 47.5 Chalk, Northwestern Covered, Under

SMU 35 @ 38 California SMU -13.5 62.5 Upset, California Covered, Over

UNLV 42 @ 17 Nevada UNLV -8.5 53.5 Chalk, UNLV Covered, Over

Fresno State 41 @ 14 San José State Fresno State -2.5 49.5 Chalk, Fresno State Covered, Over

Notre Dame 49 @ 20 Stanford Notre Dame -32.5 51.5 Chalk, Stanford Covered, Over

Wyoming 7 vs 27 Hawai'i N/A N/A –

How We Ranked Week 14's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

WeatherAPI.com

Home Field Advantage

Blue Chip HFA ratings

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 14 2025?

Week 14 of the 2025 FBS season features 67 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 14 of the 2025 season features 67 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.