Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week
Teams ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent. At a neutral site both teams travel, so the gap between them is the burden - not the raw trip. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound it.
3,227 miles · +4h body-clock shift · +8d rest edge
New Mexico travels 3,227 miles to face
Hawai'i, arriving with a +4h body-clock shift.
2,348 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Elon travels 2,348 miles to face
Stanford, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.
2,306 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
2,102 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
1,814 miles · -3h body-clock shift · +1d rest edge
Washington travels 1,814 miles to face
Purdue, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week
Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temp ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, precipitation chance ≥ 60%.
78°F, 22 mph wind, 5% precip, Sunny
New Mexico @
Hawai'i: 78°F, 22 mph wind, 5% precip, Sunny: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
58°F, 20 mph wind, 1% precip, Sunny
Northern Illinois @
Wyoming: 58°F, 20 mph wind, 1% precip, Sunny: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
76°F, 18 mph wind, 14% precip, Overcast
Kent State @
South Florida: 76°F, 18 mph wind, 14% precip, Overcast: conditions historically favor the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week
Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.
HFA 3.8 pts · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · 16,909 capacity
Hawai'i carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (16,909 capacity) against
New Mexico.
HFA 3.8 pts · Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 32,000 capacity
SMU carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Gerald J. Ford Stadium (32,000 capacity) against
Virginia.
HFA 3.8 pts · Alamodome · 64,000 capacity
UTSA carries a 3.8-point HFA edge at Alamodome (64,000 capacity) against
Navy.
Vegas versus Prediction Markets
The bookmaker's spread against the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market - two markets, no model. When they disagree, it is worth asking which one moves.
Book: Louisiana Tech -15.5 · Market: Louisiana Tech -0.1 · Gap: 15.4 pts
The bookmaker line is
Louisiana Tech -15.5; the prediction market implies
Louisiana Tech -0.1, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: Ohio -15.5 · Market: Ohio -0.1 · Gap: 15.4 pts
The bookmaker line is
Ohio -15.5; the prediction market implies
Ohio -0.1, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Book: UTSA -6.5 · Market: UTSA -0.6 · Gap: 5.9 pts
The bookmaker line is
UTSA -6.5; the prediction market implies
UTSA -0.6, a notable divergence from the book. Two markets, no model - a wide gap is one side waiting to move.
Week 7 Picks: Where the Model Disagrees with the Spread
The side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, strongest disagreement first; a game is listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
Pick: -6.0PITT · Strong value · Model: Pittsburgh -12.5 · Book: Pittsburgh -6.5 · Prediction market: Pittsburgh -5.0
The model makes it
Pittsburgh -12.5 against a book line of Pittsburgh -6.5; it sees strong value on Pittsburgh, 6.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Pittsburgh -5.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -5.7UTAH · Strong value · Model: Utah -21.2 · Book: Utah -15.5
The model makes it
Utah -21.2 against a book line of Utah -15.5; it sees strong value on Utah, 5.7 points off the spread.
Pick: -5.6MSST · Strong value · Model: LSU -8.9 · Book: LSU -14.5 · Prediction market: LSU -10.5
The model makes it
LSU -8.9 against a book line of LSU -14.5; it sees strong value on Mississippi State, 5.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies LSU -10.5, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +5.3HOU · Strong value · Model: Houston -9.8 · Book: Houston -4.5 · Prediction market: Houston -3.7
The model makes it
Houston -9.8 against a book line of Houston -4.5; it sees strong value on Houston, 5.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Houston -3.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.9NU · Strong value · Model: Northwestern -12.4 · Book: Northwestern -7.5 · Prediction market: Northwestern -6.6
The model makes it
Northwestern -12.4 against a book line of Northwestern -7.5; it sees strong value on Northwestern, 4.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Northwestern -6.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.7M-OH · Strong value · Model: Miami (OH) -14.7 · Book: Miami (OH) -10.0 · Prediction market: Miami (OH) -7.7
The model makes it
Miami (OH) -14.7 against a book line of Miami (OH) -10.0; it sees strong value on Miami (OH), 4.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami (OH) -7.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.6UTSA · Strong value · Model: UTSA -11.1 · Book: UTSA -6.5 · Prediction market: UTSA -0.6
The model makes it
UTSA -11.1 against a book line of UTSA -6.5; it sees strong value on UTSA, 4.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UTSA -0.6, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +4.5TEX · Strong value · Model: Texas -15.0 · Book: Texas -10.5 · Prediction market: Texas -8.4
The model makes it
Texas -15.0 against a book line of Texas -10.5; it sees strong value on Texas, 4.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas -8.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.4OHIO · Strong value · Model: Ohio -19.9 · Book: Ohio -15.5 · Prediction market: Ohio -0.1
The model makes it
Ohio -19.9 against a book line of Ohio -15.5; it sees strong value on Ohio, 4.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ohio -0.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -4.1WAKE · Strong value · Model: Wake Forest -12.6 · Book: Wake Forest -8.5
The model makes it
Wake Forest -12.6 against a book line of Wake Forest -8.5; it sees strong value on Wake Forest, 4.1 points off the spread.
Pick: +3.9AF · Value · Model: Air Force -2.4 · Book: UNLV -1.5 · Prediction market: Air Force -0.1
The model makes it
Air Force -2.4 against a book line of UNLV -1.5; it sees value on Air Force, 3.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Air Force -0.1, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +3.8WYO · Value · Model: Wyoming -11.3 · Book: Wyoming -7.5 · Prediction market: Wyoming -6.7
The model makes it
Wyoming -11.3 against a book line of Wyoming -7.5; it sees value on Wyoming, 3.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Wyoming -6.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.7TTU · Value · Model: Texas Tech -18.2 · Book: Texas Tech -14.5 · Prediction market: Texas Tech -11.0
The model makes it
Texas Tech -18.2 against a book line of Texas Tech -14.5; it sees value on Texas Tech, 3.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas Tech -11.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.7CIN · Value · Model: Cincinnati -2.2 · Book: West Virginia -1.5 · Prediction market: West Virginia -0.8
The model makes it
Cincinnati -2.2 against a book line of West Virginia -1.5; it sees value on Cincinnati, 3.7 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies West Virginia -0.8, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -3.6MIZ · Value · Model: Ole Miss -2.4 · Book: Ole Miss -6.0 · Prediction market: Ole Miss -4.4
The model makes it
Ole Miss -2.4 against a book line of Ole Miss -6.0; it sees value on Missouri, 3.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ole Miss -4.4, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -3.5CSU · Value · Model: Texas State -11.0 · Book: Texas State -14.5 · Prediction market: Texas State -10.5
The model makes it
Texas State -11.0 against a book line of Texas State -14.5; it sees value on Colorado State, 3.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Texas State -10.5, in line with the model.
Pick: -3.4PSU · Value · Model: Michigan -3.1 · Book: Michigan -6.5 · Prediction market: Michigan -4.8
The model makes it
Michigan -3.1 against a book line of Michigan -6.5; it sees value on Penn State, 3.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Michigan -4.8, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +3.3UCLA · Value · Model: UCLA -5.8 · Book: UCLA -2.5 · Prediction market: UCLA -1.7
The model makes it
UCLA -5.8 against a book line of UCLA -2.5; it sees value on UCLA, 3.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies UCLA -1.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.3IU · Value · Model: Ohio State -0.2 · Book: Ohio State -3.5 · Prediction market: Ohio State -3.0
The model makes it
Ohio State -0.2 against a book line of Ohio State -3.5; it sees value on Indiana, 3.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Ohio State -3.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +3.1MD · Value · Model: Maryland -7.6 · Book: Maryland -4.5 · Prediction market: Maryland -3.7
The model makes it
Maryland -7.6 against a book line of Maryland -4.5; it sees value on Maryland, 3.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Maryland -3.7, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.8UNM · Value · Model: New Mexico -17.3 · Book: New Mexico -14.5
The model makes it
New Mexico -17.3 against a book line of New Mexico -14.5; it sees value on New Mexico, 2.8 points off the spread.
Pick: +2.8JMU · Value · Model: James Madison -15.3 · Book: James Madison -12.5 · Prediction market: James Madison -9.2
The model makes it
James Madison -15.3 against a book line of James Madison -12.5; it sees value on James Madison, 2.8 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies James Madison -9.2, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.5WMU · Value · Model: Western Michigan -9.1 · Book: Western Michigan -6.5 · Prediction market: Western Michigan -5.5
The model makes it
Western Michigan -9.1 against a book line of Western Michigan -6.5; it sees value on Western Michigan, 2.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Western Michigan -5.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.5SYR · Value · Model: Louisville -12.0 · Book: Louisville -14.5 · Prediction market: Louisville -10.9
The model makes it
Louisville -12.0 against a book line of Louisville -14.5; it sees value on Syracuse, 2.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisville -10.9, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +2.3BYU · Slight lean · Model: Notre Dame -8.2 · Book: Notre Dame -10.5 · Prediction market: Notre Dame -8.1
The model makes it
Notre Dame -8.2 against a book line of Notre Dame -10.5; it sees a slight lean toward BYU, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Notre Dame -8.1, in line with the model.
Pick: -2.3TOL · Slight lean · Model: Toledo -8.8 · Book: Toledo -6.5 · Prediction market: Toledo -5.1
The model makes it
Toledo -8.8 against a book line of Toledo -6.5; it sees a slight lean toward Toledo, 2.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Toledo -5.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.2UK · Slight lean · Model: Oklahoma -4.8 · Book: Oklahoma -7.0 · Prediction market: Oklahoma -5.2
The model makes it
Oklahoma -4.8 against a book line of Oklahoma -7.0; it sees a slight lean toward Kentucky, 2.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oklahoma -5.2, in line with the model.
Pick: -2.2LT · Slight lean · Model: Louisiana Tech -17.7 · Book: Louisiana Tech -15.5 · Prediction market: Louisiana Tech -0.1
The model makes it
Louisiana Tech -17.7 against a book line of Louisiana Tech -15.5; it sees a slight lean toward Louisiana Tech, 2.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisiana Tech -0.1, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +2.1JXST · Slight lean · Model: Jacksonville State -5.2 · Book: Jacksonville State -3.0 · Prediction market: Jacksonville State -2.0
The model makes it
Jacksonville State -5.2 against a book line of Jacksonville State -3.0; it sees a slight lean toward Jacksonville State, 2.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Jacksonville State -2.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -2.1ARK · Slight lean · Model: Vanderbilt -3.9 · Book: Vanderbilt -6.0 · Prediction market: Vanderbilt -4.5
The model makes it
Vanderbilt -3.9 against a book line of Vanderbilt -6.0; it sees a slight lean toward Arkansas, 2.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Vanderbilt -4.5, in line with the model.
Pick: -2.0FRES · Slight lean · Model: Fresno State -9.5 · Book: Fresno State -7.5 · Prediction market: Fresno State -6.4
The model makes it
Fresno State -9.5 against a book line of Fresno State -7.5; it sees a slight lean toward Fresno State, 2.0 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Fresno State -6.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.9WASH · Slight lean · Model: Purdue -1.6 · Book: Purdue -3.5 · Prediction market: Purdue -3.0
The model makes it
Purdue -1.6 against a book line of Purdue -3.5; it sees a slight lean toward Washington, 1.9 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Purdue -3.0, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +1.6TENN · Slight lean · Model: Alabama -6.8 · Book: Alabama -8.5 · Prediction market: Alabama -7.3
The model makes it
Alabama -6.8 against a book line of Alabama -8.5; it sees a slight lean toward Tennessee, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Alabama -7.3, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.6UL · Slight lean · Model: Louisiana -5.6 · Book: Louisiana -4.0 · Prediction market: Louisiana -3.0
The model makes it
Louisiana -5.6 against a book line of Louisiana -4.0; it sees a slight lean toward Louisiana, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Louisiana -3.0, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.6KSU · Slight lean · Model: Kansas State -6.0 · Book: Kansas State -4.5 · Prediction market: Kansas State -3.8
The model makes it
Kansas State -6.0 against a book line of Kansas State -4.5; it sees a slight lean toward Kansas State, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Kansas State -3.8, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.6NEB · Slight lean · Model: Oregon -6.0 · Book: Oregon -7.5 · Prediction market: Oregon -6.0
The model makes it
Oregon -6.0 against a book line of Oregon -7.5; it sees a slight lean toward Nebraska, 1.6 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Oregon -6.0, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.5ARMY · Slight lean · Model: Army -4.0 · Book: Army -2.5 · Prediction market: Army -1.8
The model makes it
Army -4.0 against a book line of Army -2.5; it sees a slight lean toward Army, 1.5 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Army -1.8, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: -1.4MASS · Slight lean · Model: Buffalo -5.1 · Book: Buffalo -6.5 · Prediction market: Buffalo -5.0
The model makes it
Buffalo -5.1 against a book line of Buffalo -6.5; it sees a slight lean toward Massachusetts, 1.4 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Buffalo -5.0, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.3CCU · Slight lean · Model: App State -0.2 · Book: App State -1.5 · Prediction market: App State -0.5
The model makes it
App State -0.2 against a book line of App State -1.5; it sees a slight lean toward Coastal Carolina, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies App State -0.5, in line with the model.
Pick: +1.3BAY · Slight lean · Model: Baylor -7.3 · Book: Baylor -6.0 · Prediction market: Baylor -4.5
The model makes it
Baylor -7.3 against a book line of Baylor -6.0; it sees a slight lean toward Baylor, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Baylor -4.5, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.3USF · Slight lean · Model: South Florida -21.8 · Book: South Florida -20.5 · Prediction market: South Florida -15.4
The model makes it
South Florida -21.8 against a book line of South Florida -20.5; it sees a slight lean toward South Florida, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies South Florida -15.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.3USM · Slight lean · Model: Arkansas State -5.7 · Book: Arkansas State -7.0 · Prediction market: Arkansas State -5.3
The model makes it
Arkansas State -5.7 against a book line of Arkansas State -7.0; it sees a slight lean toward Southern Miss, 1.3 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Arkansas State -5.3, in line with the model.
Pick: -1.2ECU · Slight lean · Model: East Carolina -6.7 · Book: East Carolina -5.5 · Prediction market: East Carolina -3.9
The model makes it
East Carolina -6.7 against a book line of East Carolina -5.5; it sees a slight lean toward East Carolina, 1.2 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies East Carolina -3.9, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.1TEM · Slight lean · Model: Temple -22.1 · Book: Temple -21.0 · Prediction market: Temple -16.3
The model makes it
Temple -22.1 against a book line of Temple -21.0; it sees a slight lean toward Temple, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Temple -16.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.1UGA · Slight lean · Model: Georgia -21.6 · Book: Georgia -20.5 · Prediction market: Georgia -15.4
The model makes it
Georgia -21.6 against a book line of Georgia -20.5; it sees a slight lean toward Georgia, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Georgia -15.4, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: -1.1DEL · Slight lean · Model: Delaware -2.6 · Book: Delaware -1.5 · Prediction market: Delaware -0.4
The model makes it
Delaware -2.6 against a book line of Delaware -1.5; it sees a slight lean toward Delaware, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Delaware -0.4, a modest gap from the model.
Pick: +1.1MIA · Slight lean · Model: Miami -22.6 · Book: Miami -21.5 · Prediction market: Miami -16.3
The model makes it
Miami -22.6 against a book line of Miami -21.5; it sees a slight lean toward Miami, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Miami -16.3, a notable divergence from the model.
Pick: +1.1RICE · Slight lean · Model: Tulsa -2.9 · Book: Tulsa -4.0 · Prediction market: Tulsa -3.6
The model makes it
Tulsa -2.9 against a book line of Tulsa -4.0; it sees a slight lean toward Rice, 1.1 points off the spread. The Kalshi prediction market implies Tulsa -3.6, in line with the model.
Notable ATS Records This Week
Teams in this week's games with a cover rate of ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold) ATS this season, minimum 4 games with a decided ATS result.
BYU is hot ats this season, covering 5-0 (100%) ATS in 5 games. They play home vs.
Notre Dame this week.
Hot ATS ·
4-0 ATS (100%) ·
home vs. Wisconsin
UCLA is hot ats this season, covering 4-0 (100%) ATS in 4 games. They play home vs.
Wisconsin this week.
Hot ATS ·
5-0 ATS (100%) ·
away @ Colorado
Utah is hot ats this season, covering 5-0 (100%) ATS in 5 games. They play away @
Colorado this week.
How We Ranked Week 7's Games
Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data that powers our per-game pages.
Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home
market to the game stadium. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team
crosses, or both teams in case of neutral site games. Rest-day differential is the difference in
days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation
against fixed thresholds, dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors, see our
Weather tool for the full methodology.
HFA ratings come from our
Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates
the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft
are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the
Blue Chip power-rating model. A pick is the
side the model favors where its line and the market line differ by at least
1 point, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use.
The Vegas versus Prediction Markets section compares the bookmaker's spread with the spread
implied by the Kalshi prediction market - converted from its win probability through a fixed
logistic scale - with no model involved. The Picks section sets the Blue Chip model line
against the bookmaker line, with the Kalshi-implied line beneath each pick as a second read.
ATS records are season-to-date.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many games are in college football Week 7 2026?
Week 7 of the 2026 FBS season features 62 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.
How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?
Teams are ranked by how much further they traveled than their opponent, measured as straight-line distance from each home market to the game stadium. At a home game the host travels nothing, so this is simply the visitor's trip; at a neutral site both teams travel and the gap between them is the burden. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.
What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?
Games are flagged when the kickoff-hour forecast meets at least one of: sustained wind ≥ 15 mph, gusts ≥ 25 mph, temperature ≤ 32°F or ≥ 95°F, or a precipitation chance ≥ 60%. Scores compound across all factors: a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one. Weeks with no game past these thresholds show no weather section at all.
What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?
Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their power ratings alone would predict.
What does the Vegas versus Prediction Markets section show?
It ranks games by how far the bookmaker's spread sits from the spread implied by the Kalshi prediction market. Kalshi's win probability is converted to a spread through a fixed logistic scale, and no model is involved - it is one market against another. A wide gap is a directional flag, not a betting recommendation.
What are the Week 7 2026 picks?
Each pick is the side the Blue Chip model favors against the bookmaker's spread, listed only where the model line and the book line differ by at least 1 point and ranked by the size of that gap, graded on the same ladder the per-game pages use. The Kalshi-implied line sits beneath each as a second market read. These are model-versus-spread leans, not a service: no record is kept or published, and the line you can get may differ.
What qualifies as a notable ATS record?
Teams are flagged when at least 4 of their games this season have produced a decided ATS result and their cover rate is ≥60% (hot) or ≤40% (cold). Records are season-to-date and, especially early on, rest on small samples - a hot or cold streak here is context to note, not a demonstrated edge.
Week 7 of the 2026 season features 62 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, market-vs-market and ATS-record angles, and the picks where the model disagrees with the spread.
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