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Week 12 •
Memorial Stadium

Mississippi State27 @FINAL 49Missouri

5-5 SEC Power rating: 14.5
6-3 SEC Power rating: 18.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MIZ -7.5
PM Implied
MIZ -5.4
Blue Chip model
MIZ -5.9
Edge
-1.6MSST
See details
◂ favors MSSTfavors MIZ ▸Market: MIZ -7.5
3.5 › MIZ
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MIZ
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 MSST1 MIZ2 MSST2 MIZModel: MIZ -5.9

Betting information

Spread
MIZ -7.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
MSST 21.5 – 29.0 MIZ
Prediction markets
MIZ 71% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Missouri defeated Mississippi State 49–27 to secure a comfortable win. Missouri covered by 14.5; Game went Over by 25.5. The market closed at Missouri -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Missouri -5.9, an edge of 1.6 points toward Mississippi State.

What are the key factors for Mississippi State vs Missouri?

Mississippi State

Turnovers Prove Fatal

Mississippi State committed three turnovers, including two interceptions returned for touchdowns and a fumble that led to a Missouri score. These mistakes directly contributed to the 49-27 loss, despite controlling time of possession.

Blake Shapen's Mixed Performance

Shapen completed 19 of 33 passes for 199 yards with two interceptions, but also added two rushing touchdowns. His turnovers were costly, but his mobility kept the offense moving at times.

Time of Possession Dominance Wasted

The Bulldogs held the ball longer than Missouri, which entered the game as the SEC leader in time of possession. However, they failed to capitalize, scoring only 27 points due to turnovers and a missed field goal.

Bowl Eligibility Hinges on Egg Bowl

Mississippi State falls to 5-6 and must beat No. 6 Ole Miss on November 29 to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2022. The rivalry game will be a high-stakes challenge.

Defensive Struggles Against the Run

Missouri's Ahmad Hardy rushed for a career-high 300 yards and three touchdowns, exposing Mississippi State's run defense. The Bulldogs allowed explosive runs of 72 and 43 yards, which proved decisive.

What were the weather conditions for Mississippi State vs Missouri?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium were Clear, 53°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Mississippi State travels 426 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Missouri won by 22 to secure a comfortable win.

Missouri covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 25.5 points.

How do Mississippi State and Missouri compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Missouri (18.0) over Mississippi State (14.5) by 3.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Missouri brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Mississippi State and Missouri?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Missouri won and Missouri covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 16, 2025 Game-time

Clear

53°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity83%
Wind7 mph N
Gusts15 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Mississippi State at Missouri: aerial view of Memorial Stadium, wind from the N at 7.2 mph, gusting to 15 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
06:45 PM CST
Venue
Memorial Stadium
Capacity
62,621
Elevation
699 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Mississippi StateAway MissouriHome
This week426 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total3,329 miles1,881 miles
Body clock18:4518:45
Rest8 days8 days

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