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Week 12 •
Wrigley FieldNeutral site

Michigan24 @FINAL 22Northwestern

7-2 Big Ten Power rating: 18.0
5-4 Big Ten Power rating: 4.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MICH -10.0
PM Implied
MICH -8.7
Blue Chip model
MICH -14.1
Edge
-4.0MICH
See details
◂ favors MICHfavors NU ▸Market: MICH -10.0
‹ 13.3 MICH
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
neutral
MICH
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 MICH2 NU4 MICH4 NUModel: MICH -14.1

Betting information

Spread
MICH -10.0
Total
41.5
Odds implied score
MICH 25.8 – 15.8 NU
Prediction markets
MICH 80% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Michigan defeated Northwestern 24–22 in a nail-biter. Northwestern covered by 8.0; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Michigan -10.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Michigan -14.1 - a gap of 4.0 points toward Michigan, of which 3.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Michigan vs Northwestern?

At kickoff, conditions at Wrigley Field were Partly cloudy, 57°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Michigan travels 202 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Michigan arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Michigan won by 2 in a nail-biter.

Northwestern covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do Michigan and Northwestern compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Michigan (18.0) over Northwestern (4.7) by 13.3 points on a neutral field. Northwestern faces a power rating deficit at a neutral venue. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Neither team has a home-field advantage here, so the neutral-field differential above is already the venue-adjusted read.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Michigan and Northwestern?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Michigan won and Northwestern covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

57°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind9 mph WNW
Gusts18 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Michigan at Northwestern: aerial view of Wrigley Field, wind from the WNW at 9.2 mph, gusting to 17.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CST
Venue
Wrigley Field
Capacity
41,649
Elevation
607 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

MichiganAway NorthwesternHome
This week202 miles8 miles
Last weekBye week3,498 miles
Season total7,327 miles7,184 miles
Body clock12:0011:00
Rest14 days7 days

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