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College Football Week 9 — 2025

By · Last updated

Week 9 of the 2025 season features 53 FBS games. Stanford leads all road trips at 2,569 miles. Louisville posts the week's top HFA at 3.2 points. Analysts focused on travel and venue edges will find the ranked sections below most actionable; casual viewers can use the at-a-glance table to scan results.

Biggest Travel Disadvantages This Week

Away teams ranked by road-trip distance. Body-clock offset and rest-day differential compound the edge for home sides.

#1 Stanford
2,569 miles · -3h body-clock shift · home +2d rest
Stanford travels 2,569 miles to face Miami, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#2 California
2,278 miles · -3h body-clock shift · home +7d rest
California travels 2,278 miles to face Virginia Tech, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#3 UCLA
1,782 miles · -3h body-clock shift · equal rest
UCLA travels 1,782 miles to face Indiana, arriving with a -3h body-clock shift.
#4 Illinois
1,763 miles · +2h body-clock shift · away +7d rest
Illinois travels 1,763 miles to face Washington, arriving with a +2h body-clock shift.
#5 Toledo
1,689 miles · +3h body-clock shift · equal rest
Toledo travels 1,689 miles to face Washington State, arriving with a +3h body-clock shift.

Highest Weather-Risk Games This Week

Games ranked by combined wind, temperature, and precipitation impact. Thresholds: wind ≥ 20 mph, temp ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, precip > 0.1 in.

#1 California @ Virginia Tech
13°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog
California @ Virginia Tech: 13°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#2 Michigan @ Michigan State
15°F, 10 mph wind, Partly Cloudy
Michigan @ Michigan State: 15°F, 10 mph wind, Partly Cloudy — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.
#3 Middle Tennessee @ Delaware
16°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog
Middle Tennessee @ Delaware: 16°F, 4 mph wind, Freezing fog — conditions historically favour the home team when passing difficulty is elevated.

Strongest Home-Field Advantages This Week

Home teams ranked by stadium HFA rating. Higher values reflect stronger historical home performance at that venue. Venues above 4,000 ft are flagged for altitude disadvantage.

#1 Louisville
HFA 3.2 pts · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · 60,800 capacity
Louisville carries a 3.2-point HFA edge at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium (60,800 capacity) against Boston College.
#2 New Mexico State
HFA 3.1 pts · Aggie Memorial Stadium · 28,853 capacity
New Mexico State carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Aggie Memorial Stadium (28,853 capacity) against Missouri State.
#3 Utah
HFA 3.1 pts · Rice-Eccles Stadium · 51,444 capacity · 4,655 ft elevation
Utah carries a 3.1-point HFA edge at Rice-Eccles Stadium (51,444 capacity) against Colorado.

Biggest Power-Rating Gaps This Week

Games ranked by the difference between Blue Chip model ratings and the market spread. Larger gaps are the strongest signals.

#1 Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech
Model gap: 36.0 pts · Line: Texas Tech -38.5 · Home power: 21.8 · Away: -14.2
The model shows Texas Tech by 36.0 model points; market line is Texas Tech -38.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#2 North Texas @ Charlotte
Model gap: 26.8 pts · Line: North Texas -27.5 · Home power: -20.8 · Away: 6.0
The model shows North Texas by 26.8 model points; market line is North Texas -27.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.
#3 Stanford @ Miami
Model gap: 25.5 pts · Line: Miami -29.5 · Home power: 21.8 · Away: -3.7
The model shows Miami by 25.5 model points; market line is Miami -29.5. Gap between model edge and spread is a directional signal.

All Week 9 Games

Matchup Line O/U Prediction/Outcome
Kennesaw State 45 @ 26 Florida International Kennesaw State -3.5 49.5 Chalk, Kennesaw State Covered, Over
Western Kentucky 28 @ 27 Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech -3.5 50.5 Upset, Western Kentucky Covered, Over
Middle Tennessee 28 @ 31 Delaware Delaware -8.5 55.5 Chalk, Middle Tennessee Covered, Over
Missouri State 24 @ 17 New Mexico State Missouri State -1.5 52.5 Chalk, Missouri State Covered, Under
South Alabama 38 @ 31 Georgia State South Alabama -6.5 56.5 Chalk, South Alabama Covered, Over
North Texas 54 @ 20 Charlotte North Texas -27.5 61.5 Chalk, North Texas Covered, Over
California 34 @ 42 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech -4.5 50.5 Chalk, Virginia Tech Covered, Over
Boise State 24 @ 3 Nevada Boise State -21.5 50.5 Chalk, Nevada Covered, Under
UCLA 6 @ 56 Indiana Indiana -24.5 54.5 Chalk, Indiana Covered, Over
Ohio 28 @ 21 Eastern Michigan Ohio -12.5 59.5 Chalk, Eastern Michigan Covered, Under
South Florida 31 @ 34 Memphis South Florida -4.5 65.5 Upset, Memphis Covered, Under
Bowling Green 21 @ 24 Kent State Bowling Green -8.5 48.5 Upset, Kent State Covered, Under
Kansas State 42 @ 17 Kansas Kansas State -3.5 56.5 Chalk, Kansas State Covered, Over
Virginia 17 @ 16 North Carolina Virginia -10.5 51.5 Chalk, North Carolina Covered, Under
Northwestern 21 @ 28 Nebraska Nebraska -7.5 44.5 Chalk, Northwestern Covered, Over
Syracuse 16 @ 41 Georgia Tech Georgia Tech -17.5 54.5 Chalk, Georgia Tech Covered, Over
Ole Miss 34 @ 26 Oklahoma Oklahoma -4.5 53.5 Upset, Ole Miss Covered, Over
Rutgers 27 @ 24 Purdue Rutgers -2.5 59.5 Chalk, Rutgers Covered, Under
SMU 12 @ 13 Wake Forest SMU -3.5 53.5 Upset, Wake Forest Covered, Under
App State 21 vs 24 Old Dominion N/A N/A –
Auburn 33 @ 24 Arkansas Auburn -1.5 57.5 Chalk, Auburn Covered, Under
Akron 24 @ 16 Buffalo Buffalo -9.5 49.5 Upset, Akron Covered, Under
Utah State 14 vs 33 New Mexico New Mexico -2.5 61.5 Chalk, New Mexico Covered, Under
UConn 34 @ 37 Rice UConn -9.5 48.5 Upset, Rice Covered, Over
Temple 38 @ 37 Tulsa Temple -6.5 53.5 Chalk, Tulsa Covered, Over
San Diego State 23 @ 0 Fresno State San Diego State -3.5 48.5 Chalk, San Diego State Covered, Under
Illinois 25 vs 42 Washington Washington -4.5 55.5 Chalk, Washington Covered, Over
Western Michigan 17 @ 26 Miami (OH) Miami (OH) -2.5 40.5 Chalk, Miami (OH) Covered, Over
Alabama 29 vs 22 South Carolina Alabama -11.5 47.5 Chalk, South Carolina Covered, Over
Minnesota 3 @ 41 Iowa Iowa -8.5 39.5 Chalk, Iowa Covered, Over
Ball State 7 @ 21 Northern Illinois Northern Illinois -5.5 41.5 Chalk, Northern Illinois Covered, Under
Massachusetts 13 @ 38 Central Michigan Central Michigan -14.5 47.5 Chalk, Central Michigan Covered, Over
Missouri 10 @ 17 Vanderbilt Vanderbilt -2.5 52.5 Chalk, Vanderbilt Covered, Under
BYU 41 @ 27 Iowa State Iowa State -2.5 49.5 Upset, BYU Covered, Over
Florida Atlantic 32 @ 42 Navy Navy -15.5 62.5 Chalk, Florida Atlantic Covered, Over
NC State 34 @ 53 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -6.5 58.5 Chalk, Pittsburgh Covered, Over
UL Monroe 21 @ 49 Southern Miss N/A N/A –
Toledo 7 @ 28 Washington State Washington State -1.5 47.5 Chalk, Washington State Covered, Under
Oklahoma State 0 @ 42 Texas Tech Texas Tech -38.5 56.5 Chalk, Texas Tech Covered, Under
Baylor 20 @ 41 Cincinnati Cincinnati -4.5 68.5 Chalk, Cincinnati Covered, Under
Texas 45 @ 38 Mississippi State Texas -6.5 44.5 Chalk, Texas Covered, Over
TCU 23 vs 17 West Virginia TCU -15.5 57.5 Chalk, West Virginia Covered, Under
Wisconsin 7 @ 21 Oregon Oregon -34.5 44.5 Chalk, Wisconsin Covered, Under
Louisiana 23 @ 35 Troy Troy -8.5 48.5 Chalk, Troy Covered, Over
Stanford 7 @ 42 Miami Miami -29.5 45.5 Chalk, Miami Covered, Over
Georgia Southern 24 @ 34 Arkansas State Arkansas State -2.5 62.5 Chalk, Arkansas State Covered, Under
Michigan 31 @ 20 Michigan State Michigan -14.5 49.5 Chalk, Michigan State Covered, Over
Colorado State 0 vs 28 Wyoming Wyoming -6.5 46.5 Chalk, Wyoming Covered, Under
Texas A&M 49 @ 25 LSU Texas A&M -2.5 48.5 Chalk, Texas A&M Covered, Over
Boston College 24 @ 38 Louisville Louisville -25.5 55.5 Chalk, Boston College Covered, Over
Tennessee 56 @ 34 Kentucky Tennessee -9.5 54.5 Chalk, Tennessee Covered, Over
Houston 24 @ 16 Arizona State Arizona State -7.5 47.5 Upset, Houston Covered, Under
Colorado 7 @ 53 Utah Utah -13.5 49.5 Chalk, Utah Covered, Over

How We Ranked Week 9's Games

Each ranked section draws from the same enriched data file that powers our per-game pages. Travel distances are calculated as straight-line (great-circle) distances from each team's home market to the game stadium, converted from kilometres to miles. Body-clock offset is the signed time-zone difference the away team crosses. Rest-day differential is the difference in days since each team last played. Weather scoring compounds wind, temperature, and precipitation against fixed thresholds — dome stadiums are excluded as weather is irrelevant indoors — see our Weather tool for the full methodology.

HFA ratings come from our Home Field Advantage tool, which estimates the per-venue point value based on historical margin-of-victory data. Stadiums above 4,000 ft are flagged; altitude creates a documented visiting-team disadvantage. Power ratings are from the Blue Chip power-rating model. The gap between the model's implied spread and the market line is a directional signal; it is not a betting recommendation.

The model vs. market divergence section compares Blue Chip's power-rating implied win probability (derived via a logistic approximation from the rating gap) against the Kalshi prediction market probability. ATS records are sourced from the season log updated weekly by the enrichment pipeline; minimum 3 games required before a team is flagged.

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather Data

Home Field Advantage

Frequently Asked Questions

How many games are in college football Week 9 2025?

Week 9 of the 2025 FBS season features 53 games tracked by Blue Chip Analytics. The full schedule, lines, and totals are listed in the game table on this page.

How does Blue Chip Analytics rank travel disadvantages?

Away teams are ranked by the straight-line distance from their home market to the game stadium, converted to miles. Body-clock offset (time-zone hours crossed) is listed alongside distance as a compound fatigue indicator.

What weather conditions qualify as high-risk for this week?

Games are flagged when forecast conditions meet at least one of: wind speed ≥ 20 mph, temperature ≤ 35°F or ≥ 90°F, or precipitation > 0.1 inches. Scores compound across all factors — a cold and windy game ranks higher than a mildly breezy one.

What is a Home Field Advantage (HFA) rating?

Blue Chip's HFA rating estimates the point value of playing at home at a specific stadium, based on historical margin-of-victory data. A rating of 3.0 means the home team historically performs about 3 points better at that venue than their road performance would predict.

What does the power-rating gap section show?

The power-rating gap ranks games by the difference between Blue Chip's internal model rating for each team and the published market spread. A large gap between model edge and market line is a directional signal — it does not constitute a betting recommendation.

How is the model vs. market divergence calculated?

Blue Chip's power-rating gap is converted to an implied win probability using a logistic approximation (each rating point ≈ 2.8% shift from 50%). This is compared against the Kalshi prediction market win probability. Games with a divergence of 5 percentage points or more are surfaced. Both the model and market can be wrong — treat this as a directional flag, not a pick.

What qualifies as a notable ATS record?

Teams are flagged when they have played at least 3 games this season and their ATS cover rate is ≥65% (hot) or ≤30% (cold). Records are updated each week by the enrichment pipeline and reflect cumulative season-to-date results only — sample sizes are small early in the season.

Week 9 of the 2025 season features 53 FBS games; the ranked sections above surface the travel, weather, HFA, power-gap, model-vs-market, and ATS-record edges most relevant to analysts and informed fans.