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Week 12 •
Nippert Stadium

Arizona30 @FINAL 24Cincinnati

6-3 Big 12 Power rating: 9.6
7-2 Big 12 Power rating: 12.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
CIN -5.5
PM Implied
CIN -4.8
Blue Chip model
CIN -6.8
Edge
+1.3CIN
See details
◂ favors ARIZfavors CIN ▸Market: CIN -5.5
CIN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
CIN
CIN
CIN
no impact
ARIZ
1 ARIZ1 CIN2 ARIZ2 CIN3 ARIZ3 CINModel: CIN -6.8

Betting information

Spread
CIN -5.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
ARIZ 25.5 – 31.0 CIN
Prediction markets
CIN 69% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arizona defeated Cincinnati 30–24 in a closely contested finish. Arizona covered by 11.5; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at Cincinnati -5.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Cincinnati -6.8, an edge of 1.3 points toward Cincinnati. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Cincinnati 3.1 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Arizona vs Cincinnati?

At kickoff, conditions at Nippert Stadium were Overcast, 64°F with winds of 15 mph. Wind of 15 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 22 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arizona travels 1,555 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

Arizona won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

Arizona covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do Arizona and Cincinnati compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Cincinnati (12.7) over Arizona (9.6) by 3.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Cincinnati brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arizona and Cincinnati?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arizona won and Arizona covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

64°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity78%
Wind15 mph SW
Gusts22 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Arizona at Cincinnati: aerial view of Nippert Stadium, wind from the SW at 15.2 mph, gusting to 21.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EST
Venue
Nippert Stadium
Capacity
38,088
Elevation
778 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

ArizonaAway CincinnatiHome
This week1,555 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total7,016 miles6,561 miles
Body clock10:0012:00
Rest7 days13 days

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