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Week 12 •
M. M. Roberts Stadium

Texas State41 @FINAL 14Southern Miss

3-6 Sun Belt Power rating: -2.6
7-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -1.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
USM -3.0
PM Implied
USM -2.7
Blue Chip model
USM -3.6
Edge
+0.6USM
See details
◂ favors TXSTfavors USM ▸Market: USM -3.0
USM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USM
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 TXST1 USM2 TXST2 USMModel: USM -3.6

Betting information

Spread
USM -3.0
Total
65.5
Odds implied score
TXST 31.3 – 34.3 USM
Prediction markets
USM 61% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Texas State defeated Southern Miss 41–14 to secure a comfortable win. Texas State covered by 30.0; Game went Under by 10.5. The market closed at Southern Miss -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Southern Miss -3.6. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for Texas State vs Southern Miss?

At kickoff, conditions at M. M. Roberts Stadium were Clear, 67°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Texas State travels 521 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Texas State won by 27 to secure a comfortable win.

Texas State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 10.5 points.

How do Texas State and Southern Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Southern Miss (-1.5) over Texas State (-2.6) by 1.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas State and Southern Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Texas State won and Texas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of November 15, 2025 Game-time

Clear

67°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity68%
Wind6 mph SSW
Gusts12 mph
Snow chance0%
Wind map for Texas State at Southern Miss: aerial view of M. M. Roberts Stadium, wind from the SSW at 5.8 mph, gusting to 12.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 12
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CST
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
233 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Texas StateAway Southern MissHome
This week521 miles0 miles
Last week706 miles642 miles
Season total6,344 miles2,323 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days

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