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Week 3 •
McLane Stadium

Samford7 @FINAL 42Baylor

0-0 SoCon Power rating: -29.6
1-1 Big 12 Power rating: 10.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BAY -51.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
BAY -42.7
Edge
-8.8SAM
See details
◂ favors SAMfavors BAY ▸Market: BAY -51.5
40.3 › BAY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BAY
no impact
no impact
no impact
BAY
5 SAM5 BAY10 SAM10 BAYModel: BAY -42.7

Betting information

Spread
BAY -51.5
Total
65.5
Odds implied score
SAM 7.0 – 58.5 BAY

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Baylor defeated Samford 42–7 in a dominant performance. Samford covered by 16.5; Game went Under by 16.5. The market closed at Baylor -51.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Baylor -42.7 - a gap of 8.8 points toward Samford, of which 7.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Samford vs Baylor?

Samford

Offensive Struggles Continue

Samford managed only 7 points against Baylor, continuing a trend of low scoring after being outscored 74-16 in their first two games. The offense showed brief life with a trick play double pass for a touchdown, but overall consistency remains a major issue.

Defensive Bright Spots

Despite the lopsided score, Samford's defense forced two interceptions, including one by Lashon Young that set up a short field. However, they allowed 42 points and struggled to contain Baylor's run game, giving up 135 yards and two touchdowns to Bryson Washington.

Turnover Troubles

Samford committed a costly turnover after their interception, which led to a Baylor touchdown drive. This inability to capitalize on defensive plays has been a recurring problem, as they have been outscored heavily in all three games.

Facing Power Four Competition

This was Samford's first of two games against Power Four opponents, with a future matchup at Texas A&M. The experience against Baylor's size and speed may help prepare them for the rest of their FCS schedule, but the immediate focus is on improving execution.

Next Game: Western Carolina

Samford returns to Southern Conference play at home against Western Carolina. They will need to address offensive consistency and defensive discipline to compete, as their 0-3 start puts pressure on them to turn the season around.

Baylor

Dominant First Half Fueled by Turnovers

Baylor forced three interceptions and a fumble, leading to a 35-7 halftime lead. The defense's ability to create takeaways was a key factor in the blowout win, and coach Aranda emphasized the need to continue this trend.

Offensive Lethargy in Second Half

After a fast start, Baylor's offense stalled in the second half, managing only one touchdown and struggling with three-and-outs and punts. This inconsistency could be a concern against stronger opponents like Arizona State.

Sawyer Robertson's Mixed Performance

Robertson threw for 211 yards and three touchdowns but also had his first two interceptions of the season after a near-perfect start. His ability to bounce back from mistakes will be crucial in conference play.

Running Game Success

Bryson Washington rushed for 135 yards and two touchdowns, providing a strong ground attack. This balance will be important against a tough Arizona State defense.

Upcoming Conference Opener vs. Arizona State

Baylor hosts defending Big 12 champion Arizona State next week. The Bears will need to maintain defensive intensity and improve offensive consistency to compete in their conference opener.

What were the weather conditions for Samford vs Baylor?

At kickoff, conditions at McLane Stadium were Sunny, 95°F, heat index 97°F with winds of 11 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Samford travels 616 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Baylor won by 35 in a dominant performance.

Samford covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 16.5 points.

How do Samford and Baylor compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Baylor (10.7) over Samford (-29.6) by 40.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Baylor brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Samford and Baylor?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Baylor won and Samford covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

95°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity31%
Wind11 mph SSE
Gusts13 mph
Heat index97°F
Wind map for Samford at Baylor: aerial view of McLane Stadium, wind from the SSE at 11.2 mph, gusting to 13 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
McLane Stadium
Capacity
45,140
Elevation
404 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

SamfordAway BaylorHome
This week616 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week181 miles
Season total616 miles181 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

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