15 Final 10 26 Final 42 8 Final 34 7 Final 33 17 Final 28 27 Final 37 17 Final 34 27 Final 21
Week 3 •
Hornet Stadium

Mercyhurst28 @FINAL 49Sacramento State

0-0 NEC Power rating: 1.0
0-2 Big Sky Power rating: -18.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SAC -21.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
MercyH -15.3
Edge
-36.9MercyH
See details
◂ favors MercyHfavors SAC ▸Market: SAC -21.5
MercyH
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SAC
no impact
SAC
no impact
SAC
10 MercyH10 SAC20 MercyH20 SAC30 MercyH30 SAC40 MercyH40 SACModel: MercyH -15.3

Betting information

Spread
SAC -21.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
MercyH 18.0 – 39.5 SAC

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Sacramento State defeated Mercyhurst 49–28 to secure a comfortable win. Mercyhurst covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 19.5. The market closed at Sacramento State -21.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Mercyhurst -15.3 - a gap of 36.9 points toward Mercyhurst, of which 35.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Mercyhurst 19.0 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Mercyhurst vs Sacramento State?

At kickoff, conditions at Hornet Stadium were Clear, 62°F with winds of 11 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Mercyhurst travels 2,177 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 3 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Sacramento State won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Mercyhurst covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 19.5 points.

How do Mercyhurst and Sacramento State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Mercyhurst (1.0) over Sacramento State (-18.0) by 19.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Sacramento State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Sacramento State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Mercyhurst and Sacramento State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Sacramento State won and Mercyhurst covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 14, 2025 Game-time

Clear

62°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind11 mph S
Gusts17 mph
Wind map for Mercyhurst at Sacramento State: aerial view of Hornet Stadium, wind from the S at 10.5 mph, gusting to 17 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM PDT
Venue
Hornet Stadium
Capacity
21,195
Elevation
49 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

MercyhurstAway Sacramento StateHome
This week2,177 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week220 miles
Season total2,177 miles2,889 miles
Body clock21:0018:00
Rest8 days8 days

Other games this week