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Week 3 •
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

NC State34 @FINAL 24Wake Forest

2-0 ACC Power rating: 2.9
2-0 ACC Power rating: 0.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NCSU -7.5
PM Implied
NCSU -6.0
Blue Chip model
NCSU -0.1
Edge
+7.4WAKE
See details
◂ favors NCSUfavors WAKE ▸Market: NCSU -7.5
NCSU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
WAKE
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 NCSU5 WAKEModel: NCSU -0.1

Betting information

Spread
NCSU -7.5
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
NCSU 30.0 – 22.5 WAKE
Prediction markets
NCSU 73% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

NC State defeated Wake Forest 34–24 in a double-digit victory. NC State covered by 2.5; Game went Over by 5.5. The market closed at NC State -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it NC State -0.1 - a gap of 7.4 points toward Wake Forest, of which 6.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for NC State vs Wake Forest?

At kickoff, conditions at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium were Partly cloudy, 69°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

NC State travels 89 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

NC State won by 10 in a double-digit victory.

NC State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 5.5 points.

How do NC State and Wake Forest compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor NC State (2.9) over Wake Forest (0.3) by 2.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Wake Forest faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Wake Forest brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on NC State and Wake Forest?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

NC State won and NC State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 11, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

69°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity74%
Wind2 mph WNW
Gusts3 mph
Wind map for NC State at Wake Forest: aerial view of Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, wind from the WNW at 1.6 mph, gusting to 3.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EDT
Venue
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Capacity
31,500
Elevation
958 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

NC StateAway Wake ForestHome
This week89 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total89 miles0 miles
Body clock19:3019:30
Rest5 days5 days

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