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Week 3 •
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

Portland State3 @FINAL 23Hawai'i

0-0 Big Sky Power rating: -26.8
2-1 MW Power rating: -9.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
HAW -35.5
PM Implied
HAW -25.4
Blue Chip model
HAW -22.0
Edge
-13.5PRST
See details
◂ favors PRSTfavors HAW ▸Market: HAW -35.5
17.8 › HAW
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
HAW
no impact
HAW
no impact
PRST
5 PRST5 HAW10 PRST10 HAW15 PRST15 HAWModel: HAW -22.0

Betting information

Spread
HAW -35.5
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
PRST 9.5 – 45.0 HAW
Prediction markets
HAW 99% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Hawai'i defeated Portland State 23–3 to secure a comfortable win. Portland State covered by 15.5; Game went Under by 28.5. The market closed at Hawai'i -35.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Hawai'i -22.0 - a gap of 13.5 points toward Portland State, of which 11.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Portland State vs Hawai'i?

At kickoff, conditions at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex were Patchy rain possible, 76°F with winds of 16 mph. Wind of 16 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 21 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Portland State travels 2,585 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 3 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Hawai'i won by 20 to secure a comfortable win.

Portland State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 28.5 points.

How do Portland State and Hawai'i compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Hawai'i (-9.0) over Portland State (-26.8) by 17.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Hawai'i brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Portland State and Hawai'i?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Hawai'i won and Portland State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 14, 2025 Game-time

Patchy rain possible

76°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity76%
Wind16 mph ENE
Gusts21 mph
Wind map for Portland State at Hawai'i: aerial view of Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, wind from the ENE at 15.7 mph, gusting to 20.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
05:59 PM HST
Venue
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Capacity
16,909
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Portland StateAway Hawai'iHome
This week2,585 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total3,939 miles5,937 miles
Body clock20:5917:59
Rest8 days7 days

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