26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 3 •
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Arkansas35 @FINAL 41Ole Miss

2-0 SEC Power rating: 7.4
2-0 SEC Power rating: 20.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MISS -3.5
PM Implied
MISS -3.6
Blue Chip model
MISS -15.3
Edge
+11.8MISS
See details
◂ favors ARKfavors MISS ▸Market: MISS -3.5
MISS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MISS
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 ARK5 MISS10 ARK10 MISSModel: MISS -15.3

Betting information

Spread
MISS -3.5
Total
60.5
Odds implied score
ARK 28.5 – 32.0 MISS
Prediction markets
MISS 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ole Miss defeated Arkansas 41–35 in a closely contested finish. Ole Miss covered by 2.5; Game went Over by 15.5. The market closed at Ole Miss -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ole Miss -15.3 - a gap of 11.8 points toward Ole Miss, of which 11.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Arkansas vs Ole Miss?

Ole Miss

Backup QB Shines in Surprise Start

Trinidad Chambliss, a transfer from Division II Ferris State, started in place of injured Austin Simmons and threw for 353 yards and a touchdown while rushing for two more scores, showcasing his ability to lead the offense effectively.

Red Zone Efficiency Key to Victory

Ole Miss converted all seven of their red zone opportunities into points, including five touchdowns and two field goals, demonstrating a high level of execution in critical scoring situations.

Defensive Takeaway Seals the Game

With 1:52 remaining, TJ Dottery forced a fumble on a short completion, recovered by Wydett Williams Jr., which allowed Ole Miss to secure the win despite Arkansas gaining 522 total yards.

Injury Concerns at Quarterback

Starter Austin Simmons was limited due to a foot injury, playing only one snap in the second quarter before limping off, leaving his availability for the next game uncertain and placing reliance on Chambliss.

Upcoming Home Game Against Tulane

Ole Miss hosts Tulane on Saturday as part of a four-game homestand, and will need to maintain offensive consistency and address defensive lapses to continue their winning streak.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas vs Ole Miss?

At kickoff, conditions at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium were Clear, 77°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas travels 288 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ole Miss won by 6 in a closely contested finish.

Ole Miss covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 15.5 points.

How do Arkansas and Ole Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ole Miss (20.2) over Arkansas (7.4) by 12.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ole Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas and Ole Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Ole Miss won and Ole Miss covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity52%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for Arkansas at Ole Miss: aerial view of Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, wind from the SE at 5.4 mph, gusting to 11.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Capacity
64,038
Elevation
472 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

ArkansasAway Ole MissHome
This week288 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game755 miles
Season total288 miles755 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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