Week 3
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)

Indiana State0 @FINAL 73Indiana , Week 3, Sep 12, 2025

0-0 MVFC Power rating: -29.6
2-0 Big Ten Power rating: 29.0

How did the line hold up?

Market line
IU -47.5
PM Implied
IU -25.2
Blue Chip model
IU -61.2
Edge
+13.7IU
See details
◂ favors INSTfavors IU ▸Market: IU -47.5
58.6 › IU
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5 INST5 IU10 INST10 IU15 INST15 IUModel: IU -61.2

Betting information

Spread
IU -47.5
Total
60.5
Odds implied score
INST 6.5 – 54.0 IU
Prediction markets
IU 97% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Indiana defeated Indiana State 73–0 in a dominant performance. Indiana covered by 25.5; Game went Over by 12.5. The market closed at Indiana -47.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Indiana -61.2 - a gap of 13.7 points toward Indiana, of which 12.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Indiana State vs Indiana?

Indiana State

Offensive struggles against FBS opponent

The Sycamores managed only 77 total yards and 5 first downs, with quarterback Keegan Patterson completing 8 of 16 passes for 13 yards and being sacked 4 times. This performance highlights significant offensive limitations when facing a higher-level defense.

Defense overwhelmed by explosive plays

Indiana State allowed 680 total yards and 73 points, including 5 touchdown passes in the first half alone. The defense could not stop drives or prevent big plays, indicating a major gap in talent and execution against a Power Five team.

Positive start to season against FCS competition

Despite the blowout loss, the Sycamores began the season 2-0 for the first time since 1986, suggesting they may be competitive within their own FCS conference. This game was an outlier against a ranked FBS opponent.

Next game at Montana provides a more level matchup

Indiana State travels to Montana next Saturday, facing an FCS opponent where they can reset and apply lessons from this game. The outcome will better indicate their true strength against comparable competition.

What were the weather conditions for Indiana State vs Indiana?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) were Overcast, 71°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Indiana State travels 49 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Indiana won by 73 in a dominant performance.

Indiana covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 12.5 points.

How do Indiana State and Indiana compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Indiana (29.0) over Indiana State (-29.6) by 58.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Indiana brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Indiana won and Indiana covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 12, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

71°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity62%
Wind6 mph ESE
Gusts13 mph
Wind map for Indiana State at Indiana: aerial view of Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN), wind from the ESE at 6.3 mph, gusting to 13.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM EDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Capacity
52,626
Elevation
787 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Indiana StateAway IndianaHome
This week49 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total49 miles0 miles
Body clock18:3018:30
Rest6 days6 days