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Week 3 •
Centennial Bank Stadium

Iowa State24 @FINAL 16Arkansas State

3-0 Big 12 Power rating: 10.1
1-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -10.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ISU -21.0
PM Implied
ISU -16.0
Blue Chip model
ISU -17.5
Edge
+3.5ARST
See details
◂ favors ISUfavors ARST ▸Market: ISU -21.0
‹ 20.9 ISU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ARST
no impact
no impact
no impact
ARST
2 ISU2 ARST4 ISU4 ARSTModel: ISU -17.5

Betting information

Spread
ISU -21.0
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
ISU 38.3 – 17.3 ARST
Prediction markets
ISU 94% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Iowa State defeated Arkansas State 24–16 in a one-score game. Arkansas State covered by 13.0; Game went Under by 15.5. The market closed at Iowa State -21.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Iowa State -17.5 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Arkansas State, of which 2.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Iowa State vs Arkansas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Centennial Bank Stadium were Clear, 81°F, heat index 84°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Iowa State travels 454 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Iowa State won by 8 in a one-score game.

Arkansas State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 15.5 points.

How do Iowa State and Arkansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Iowa State (10.1) over Arkansas State (-10.8) by 20.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Arkansas State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Arkansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Iowa State and Arkansas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Iowa State won and Arkansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

81°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity53%
Wind6 mph ESE
Gusts13 mph
Heat index84°F
Wind map for Iowa State at Arkansas State: aerial view of Centennial Bank Stadium, wind from the ESE at 6.3 mph, gusting to 13.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
03:00 PM CDT
Venue
Centennial Bank Stadium
Capacity
16,343
Elevation
302 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Iowa StateAway Arkansas StateHome
This week454 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game241 miles
Season total8,236 miles241 miles
Body clock15:0015:00
Rest7 days7 days

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