Week 3
Chapman Stadium

Navy42 @FINAL 23Tulsa , Week 3, Sep 14, 2025

2-0 American Power rating: 1.3
1-1 American Power rating: -16.6

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NAVY -14.0
PM Implied
NAVY -10.4
Blue Chip model
NAVY -15.8
Edge
-1.8NAVY
See details
◂ favors NAVYfavors TLSA ▸Market: NAVY -14.0
‹ 17.9 NAVY
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1 NAVY1 TLSA2 NAVY2 TLSAModel: NAVY -15.8

Betting information

Spread
NAVY -14.0
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
NAVY 33.3 – 19.3 TLSA
Prediction markets
NAVY 84% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Navy defeated Tulsa 42–23 to secure a comfortable win. Navy covered by 5.0; Game went Over by 12.5. The market closed at Navy -14.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Navy -15.8, an edge of 1.8 points toward Navy.

What are the key factors for Navy vs Tulsa?

Navy

Resilient Quarterback Play

Blake Horvath overcame three early turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble) that led to a 14-point deficit, but he rebounded to complete 5 of 7 passes for 84 yards and a touchdown, while rushing for 159 yards and a score. His ability to bounce back shows mental toughness, but the early mistakes could be a concern against stronger defenses.

Dominant Rushing Attack

Navy rushed for 369 yards as a team, with Horvath (159 yards), Alex Tecza (72 yards, 2 TDs), and Eli Heidenreich (72 yards, 1 TD) leading the way. This ground game is the team's identity and will be key in future matchups, especially if they can avoid turnovers.

Defensive Standouts

MarcAnthony Parker recorded 11 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and a half sack, while Justin Ross secured an interception on the penultimate play. The defense held Tulsa to 23 points despite the early turnovers, showing they can keep the team in games.

Turnover Issues

Navy committed three turnovers in the first quarter, all by Horvath, which allowed Tulsa to build a 14-point lead. While the team recovered, such mistakes could be costly against more disciplined opponents, making ball security a priority in practice.

Undefeated Start in Conference

Navy improved to 3-0 overall and 2-0 in the American Athletic Conference, positioning themselves as early contenders. The win on the road demonstrates their ability to overcome adversity, which bodes well for upcoming conference games.

Tulsa

Defensive Standouts Despite Loss

Linebacker Ray Coney recorded a game-high 14 tackles, and MarcAnthony Parker added 11 tackles with two for loss and a half sack, showing the defense can make plays even in a blowout.

Early Turnovers Not Capitalized On

Navy's quarterback committed three turnovers in the first quarter, but Tulsa only managed a 14-point lead, failing to put the game away early and allowing Navy to rally.

Rushing Defense Struggles

Tulsa allowed 369 rushing yards, including 159 from Navy's quarterback, indicating a major weakness against the run that opponents will likely exploit.

Offensive Inconsistency

After building a 14-point lead, Tulsa's offense stalled, scoring only 9 points in the final three quarters, highlighting a need for sustained drives and better execution.

What were the weather conditions for Navy vs Tulsa?

At kickoff, conditions at Chapman Stadium were Partly cloudy, 77°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Navy travels 1,083 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Navy arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Navy won by 19 to secure a comfortable win.

Navy covered the spread.

The total went Over by 12.5 points.

How do Navy and Tulsa compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Navy (1.3) over Tulsa (-16.6) by 17.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Tulsa faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Tulsa brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Navy won and Navy covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 14, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity74%
Wind7 mph S
Gusts15 mph
Wind map for Navy at Tulsa: aerial view of Chapman Stadium, wind from the S at 7.4 mph, gusting to 15.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
Chapman Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
804 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure NavyAway TulsaHome
This week1,083 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game1,346 miles
Season total1,083 miles1,346 miles
Body clock20:0019:00
Rest8 days7 days